Mike Elias On the Verge

[Going Underground]

Elias said they are not going to spend alot in free agency. That is why the Correa rumor made no sense. They want to  be like the Rays and not even the Astros who's payroll went up significantly each year after 2017.

[spiritof66]

5 hours ago, vab said:

Maybe but, remember, if they spent on the major league product and got to 75-80 wins or whatever three years ago they wouldn't have Rutchsman. They wouldn't have a shot at the kid they're going to take number one overall in this upcoming draft. There is something to be said for sacrificing an insignificant number of wins today for a shot at the very best talent that can make a huge difference for years to come. 

I think practically everyone would have agreed with you when "today" was 2019 or 2020. (The Orioles drafted Rutschman based on their runaway last-in-MLB finish in 2018, four years ago -- before Elias arrived -- when I doubt anyone thought the team should be investing in veteran talent. Maybe Peter Angelos did.) I'm concerned because it remained "today" in the 2021-22 off-season, it's still "today" in 2022, and it may still be "today" in the coming off-season and in 2023, and Elias is telling us that's just fine and according to plan.

In some ways, time flies, but when you watch a terrible team night after night for five years, and counting, it can seem to drag a bit. The owner, his sons and Elias may not have that problem because I'm not sure they're watching the Orioles on a regular basis.

I expect my own view will be very much affected by what does (or doesn't) happen in the 14 months leading up to the 2023 trade deadline.

[connja]

33 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Elias said they are not going to spend alot in free agency. That is why the Correa rumor made no sense. They want to  be like the Rays and not even the Astros who's payroll went up significantly each year after 2017.

As with any business, spending is going to be a product of income.  The Orioles have demonstrated they can fill the stadium when the team is good.  The Rays have never filled their stadium, even in their best years.  I suspect once we start winning, the attendance will go up, and we will be able to spend again.  Perhaps not to previous levels, but way beyond what the Rays do.

[sportsfan8703]

We still have some holes in the lineup for next season and only really Adley and Stowers coming up this year. 

C - AR 6/15/22

1B - Mountcastle

2B - Urias?  Vavra?  Westburg 6/15/23?

3B - Gunnar 6/15/23

SS - Mateo?

LF - Hays

CF - Mullins

RF - Stowers 7/31/22. 
 

DH - Diaz???

I don’t see how that is going to make them spend next offseason. 

[Going Underground]

21 minutes ago, connja said:

As with any business, spending is going to be a product of income.  The Orioles have demonstrated they can fill the stadium when the team is good.  The Rays have never filled their stadium, even in their best years.  I suspect once we start winning, the attendance will go up, and we will be able to spend again.  Perhaps not to previous levels, but way beyond what the Rays do.

Elias himself said the Orioles are a small market team and with the Nationals nearby will not be spending on free agents like they used too. Really don't think attendance matters that much.

 

Let me add again what Elias said to the Post,dont want to misquote him. 

I think the way the Orioles attacked things prior to 2019 and before the Washington Nationals moved in, it was possible to be a huge-spending, free agent-oriented team,” Elias said, eyes glued to some up-and-comers playing catch in the Camden Yards outfield last week.

In those days, he said, the Orioles could skimp on international investments or even player development and make up for it with a big signing here and there. But with the Nationals nearby, a small market and “a division with three other beasts and arguably the best-run franchise in the sport for the last 14 years,” he said, “we are going to need to have an internal pipeline that is thriving at all times.”

[survivedc]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We still have some holes in the lineup for next season and only really Adley and Stowers coming up this year. 

C - AR 6/15/22

1B - Mountcastle

2B - Urias?  Vavra?  Westburg 6/15/23?

3B - Gunnar 6/15/23

SS - Mateo?

LF - Hays

CF - Mullins

RF - Stowers 7/31/22. 
 

DH - Diaz???

I don’t see how that is going to make them spend next offseason. 

It’s May. We have no clue who will be coming up as the year goes on. Henderson and Westburg are two levels away and could easily come up later on this season.

[deward]

26 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We still have some holes in the lineup for next season and only really Adley and Stowers coming up this year. 

C - AR 6/15/22

1B - Mountcastle

2B - Urias?  Vavra?  Westburg 6/15/23?

3B - Gunnar 6/15/23

SS - Mateo?

LF - Hays

CF - Mullins

RF - Stowers 7/31/22. 
 

DH - Diaz???

I don’t see how that is going to make them spend next offseason. 

Unless ownership changes, they aren't spending next offseason. Or any offseason after that, until they sell and the new owners want to make a splash.

[jabba72]

11 minutes ago, survivedc said:

It’s May. We have no clue who will be coming up as the year goes on. Henderson and Westburg are two levels away and could easily come up later on this season.

Westburg is in a terrible slump and Henderson has yet to play in AAA. The odds of either one making an impact this season in Baltimore are close to zero. If everything goes right for both of them I could see June 2023.  Its very unlikely to be earlier then that.

My hope is that Urias bat starts to improve and Nevin plays well enough to stick at 3B. But he isnt exactly getting many reps there.

[vab]

30 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Elias himself said the Orioles are a small market team and with the Nationals nearby will not be spending on free agents like they used too. Really don't think attendance matters that much.

 

Let me add again what Elias said to the Post,dont want to misquote him. 

I think the way the Orioles attacked things prior to 2019 and before the Washington Nationals moved in, it was possible to be a huge-spending, free agent-oriented team,” Elias said, eyes glued to some up-and-comers playing catch in the Camden Yards outfield last week.

In those days, he said, the Orioles could skimp on international investments or even player development and make up for it with a big signing here and there. But with the Nationals nearby, a small market and “a division with three other beasts and arguably the best-run franchise in the sport for the last 14 years,” he said, “we are going to need to have an internal pipeline that is thriving at all times.”

 

This is really the bottom line. We can argue about spending on a free agent here or there but until this farm system really starts producing front-line major league talent all over the field and on the mound, this club is not really going to get anywhere of significance. We're hopeful that it will happen soon but it has to happen before anything can really change. 

 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

I expect the pitching to be bought primarily with prospects through trades, not with money.

Yep.   If there is a truly LTC passed out to a pitcher in the next few years, I expect it to be for Rodriguez or Hall.

I think there's signal not noise in how the Luhnow Astros (who I expect the Elias Orioles to generally emulate) have come at pitching.    They knew McCullers well from drafthood, and he's the only LTC guy.    Even Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole after a trade taste test and good run, it was like "How about a 2-year extension" in Verlander's case, and thanks bro in Cole's case.    I believe Decision Sciences tells you you can't rely on pitchers to be good in 7-year chunks.   

I guess half goofily the Orioles have a model that says 8 years from now the chance of Gunnar Henderson being one of the best Bats on the planet is clearly better than 8 years from now the chance of Grayson Rodriguez being one of the best Arms on the planet.   And I say that thinking today Grayson Rodriguez is just about the best bet to hold that crown of any individual, while Gunnar has many betters.

I hope $40M+ of the tool of money is used for 2023's team, but I don't expect Elias to bid Eduardo-sized contracts on the Sean Manaeas and Chris Bassitts of the world.   If the July 2023 Orioles get John Means and another pitcher all at once, it'll be one whose Last 30 Days metrics look good at that time.

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I believe Hall, GR, and Stowers were all drafted by DD. So were Mountcastle, Hays, Mullins, Mancini, and Means. Santander in the rule 5. Etc….

Who has Elias really added with all the top picks?  AR, Gunnar, Mayo, Kjerstad, and Westburg. 

Pretty sure DD would’ve drafted AR or Witt. 

This was not a slap at DD. They said it themselves at the time. You can argue, but there really is nothing to argue about there. Pretty common knowledge. 

Stowers was drafted by Elias in 2019. As far as who has been added by Elias, 8 out of the top 10 (16/20 and 22/30) current prospects according to MLBpipeline.com. Some were brought in with trades. The 2020 draft was 5 rounds, with six Orioles’ picks. Your own list of prospects Elias has drafted was a decent start, but there is a lot more. Go look at the top 30 lists for yourself. 

Grayson and DL took great strides in the new staff from 2019 on. Brennan Hanifee was the only name I can remember regressing of note because he was primarily a sinker-baller. They challenged him to improve his other pitches. 

All of the prospects and major league guys you listed have all their best days since Elias’, other than Mancini. John Means was an afterthought, before the change up Chris Holt taught him. Mullins is a completely different player now. Hays, Santander and Mountcastle are showing tremendous changes in swing decisions and production.

Again, I think Duquette did some good things, and he would have done many more if there was good ownership and not having all of the different factions in the organization at the time. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Orioles are never going to sign free agents because the Nationals? What a depressing thread. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Orioles are never going to sign free agents because the Nationals? What a depressing thread. 

Look, it two teams could co-exist in such close proximity than big cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles would have more than one team.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Look, it two teams could co-exist in such close proximity than big cities like New York, Chicago and Los Angeles would have more than one team.

Seriously, why do people even bother with this franchise? Talk about a punch to the gut. Wow.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Orioles are never going to sign free agents because the Nationals? What a depressing thread. 

That’s not what he said and not what will happen.  But of course the Orioles had a better market before the Nats moved to DC.   We are never going to be a top payroll team.  We don’t have to scrape the bottom either.   We can be a mid-payroll team that signs free agents, we’re just never going to be a team that can sign FAs to solve all its problems.