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O's are willing to move Tillman in right deal, per Roch


Sterling Bird

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No thanks, his fairly high WHIP and relatively low ERA suggest he was getting lucky. His strikeout rate is lackluster for a guy you'd be dealing a premier prospect for. Considering he'd be pitching in the toughest division in baseball, I don't think he would fare well.

Not sure why you would deal Tillman for him, would be interested to hear why you like him. Aside from his youth - those are solid numbers for his age - I just don't see anything that makes him stand out, having watched several of his starts last year. I think he's more suited to the National League, and he's a #3 starter at best. I'm interested to see if he makes another step forward this season, but I'd rather hang on to Tillman.

Actually Jurrjens was somewhat unlucky as he had a .311 BABIP and 3.59 FIP, which was better than his 3.68 ERA. His K/BB and K/9 are somewhat glaring though and should be considered red flags for a down year in 2009.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5556&position=P

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Actually Jurrjens was somewhat unlucky as he had a .311 BABIP and 3.59 FIP, which was better than his 3.68 ERA. His K/BB and K/9 are somewhat glaring though and should be considered red flags for a down year in 2009.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5556&position=P

.311 BABIP isn't ridiculous, but a 1.37 WHIP and 3.68 ERA don't jive at all.

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.311 BABIP isn't ridiculous, but a 1.37 WHIP and 3.68 ERA don't jive at all.

The WHIP is due to the increased walks and increased BABIP.

I'm not arguing against you about Jurrjens value since I believe that he's a #3 pitcher. However, it does need to be stated that he was somewhat unlucky last year.

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Chris Volstad, who was Florida's No. 1 prospect for two years running, experienced great success in 2008 with a 2.88 ERA and a 148 ERA+ in 14 MLB starts:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/v/volstch01.shtml

There is no way the Marlins would trade Volstad, who turned 22 in September, for a pitcher who has never thrown a pitch above the Double A level. Tillman is only 19 months younger than Volstad.

His strikeout rates aren't good. Here's a good writeup on Volstad from before the 2008 season:

2. Chris Volstad, RHP

DOB: 9/23/86

Height/Weight: 6-7/190

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Palm Beach Gardens HS (FL)

2007 Stats: 4.50 ERA at High-A (126-152-37-93); 3.16 ERA at Double-A (42.1-41-10-25)

Year In Review: The first high school pitcher selected in 2005 held his own at Double-A before his 21st birthday.

The Good: Volstad paints the strike zone with outstanding command of a three-pitch mix. His fastball sits at 89-91 mph and features a little bit of sink and a heavy downward plane because of his big frame, which also allows him to maintain his stuff deep into games. Both his curveball and changeup are above-average pitches, and he approaches his craft with the maturity of a veteran.

The Bad: Volstad is a bit of a mismatch; a finesse pitcher in a power pitcher's body. As effective as he can be, he doesn't have a true swing-and-miss offering, and it's hard to project him as any kind of star because of it. He focuses a bit too much on throwing strikes at times, and some feel he could be more effective by occasionally mixing in chase pitches.

Fun Fact: While there are a number of Palm Beach Gardens alumni in the minors, the only major league pick out of the school is Zach Miner.

Perfect World Projection: A valuable pitcher who delivers 200+ innings annually with above-average productivity.

Timetable: Volstad will return to Double-A to begin 2008, but the Marlins feel that he could continue to move quickly and be ready for a rotation role in 2009.

Everybody loves a strike-thrower, but that's really all Volstad looks like to me.

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Sign Tex

Sign Sheets

Sign Zaun

Trade Scott for Marquis, Hill and Pie

Trade Tillman, Reimold and others for Greinke

2010 LINEUP AND ROTATION

C - Wieters

1B - Teixeira

2B - BRob

SS - Izturis

3B - Snyder

LF - Pie

CF - Jones

RF - Markakis

DH - Huff

Sheets

Guthrie

Greinke

Arrieta

Matsuz/Olson/Patton

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Leitch is right about this, I'm not sure why anyone is arguing with him.

If you trade Tillman straight up for a pitcher who is further along than he is, you will necessarily wind up with someone with a lower ceiling. Jurrjens is a good example.

I don't think the Marlins would actually trade Volstad for Tillman.

If you trade Tillman it has to be in a package or for a hitter, which I'm not entirely sure we need.

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Don't trade Tillman. Just: :no:

Wait... you have said you are 13... Cindy has a son about that age... are you Cindy's offspring? :rofl:

Seriously though, I more or less agree. It would take A LOT for me to be ok with trading Tillman at this point... a lot more than it would take for me to be willing to trade Arrieta.

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