Since their 6-game losing streak a month ago...

[TommyPickles]

The O's are 13-12. 

I feel like if you zoom out a bit, this season is going surprisingly well. A few things to consider:

-The O's have the lowest payroll in MLB this year. Roughly $30 million.

-The O's have one of the toughest schedules in baseball. The AL East towers over every other division at the moment. 

-The O's lost their best pitcher, Means, and their best pitching prospect, Rodriquez, to season ending injuries.

Yet, despite all this, the O's have a .429 Win%. We have a better record than 7 other franchises. We have better attendance than 7 other franchises. 

Mountcastle and Hays are ascending. Rutschman and Stowers have made it to the bigs. We've found a closer. (Hopefully) Means, Rodriquez, and Hall will all be in the rotation next season...

The playoffs have been expanded so that FORTY PERCENT of teams make it!? We won't have to play nearly as many division games next year.

We're not that far off. Go O's.

 

[joelala]

10 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

The O's are 13-12. 

I feel like if you zoom out a bit, this season is going surprisingly well. A few things to consider:

-The O's have the lowest payroll in MLB this year. Roughly $30 million.

-The O's have one of the toughest schedules in baseball. The AL East towers over every other division at the moment. 

-The O's lost their best pitcher, Means, and their best pitching prospect, Rodriquez, to season ending injuries.

Yet, despite all this, the O's have a .429 Win%. We have a better record than 7 other franchises. We have better attendance than 7 other franchises. 

Mountcastle and Hays are ascending. Rutschman and Stowers have made it to the bigs. We've found a closer. (Hopefully) Means, Rodriquez, and Hall will all be in the rotation next season...

The playoffs have been expanded so that FORTY PERCENT of teams make it!? We won't have to play nearly as many division games next year.

We're not that far off. Go O's.

 

Good post. Thanks. 

[Matt Bennett]

The worst is behind us. I feel pretty comfortable saying less than .500 ball in 2023 will be a disappointment. 

Top rotational prospects in the majors, top infield prospects in the majors, outfield is set, less emphasis on divisional play, no bad contracts left & years of running low payrolls…Running out of excuses to be bad. 

[Moose Milligan]

We're still far off.  

13-12 is probably the best 25 game stretch (paging @Frobbyto the thread) since 2018.  But all it is, is a 25 game stretch.  We were .500 in May, probably the only .500 month we've had since 2018, too.

Stowers probably isn't here past the Jays series, but he isn't far away.  AR35 is here, but he's not really hitting too well yet.

I will say the season is going surprisingly well, although @Tony-OHand @Sports Guywill be here to admonish me for saying that.  

One thing they're not taking into consideration is RS/RA:

May 2021:  108 RS/163 RA

May 2022:  128 RS/145 RA

June 2021:  131 RS/ 172 RA

June 2022:  63 RS/67 RA

We're halfway through June and only down 4 runs.  

And before anyone whines, yeah, I Ieft out April because it wasn't convenient for my argument.

Also mentioned on one of the broadcasts the other night was, IIRC, that we've had more come from behind wins this year already than we have in all of last year.  I think that adds to the "feeling" that people have talked about on here that others are quick to dismiss.  This team fights.  

I know, I know, I know, overall W/L record isn't that great and from a 25,000 foot view, sure, I agree.   And yes, SG, I agree that Elias and the Orioles are terrible for making everyone think that it would take 4 years to rebuild and they could have been better than they are now.  

But that's not what I'm saying.  What I am saying is that this team **so far** is better than it's been in awhile.  I'm not sure if that holds up for the rest of the summer but anyone who watches the games this year compared to the 2020 and 2021 teams can't tell me that this team isn't better.

That said, it still has a long, long way to go.

[sportsfan8703]

The bullpen is good. Gunnar and Westburg will fill our lineup needs next year. We have to piece together an entire starting rotation. That’s the obvious need. The third WC and not as many division games really help. 

[wildcard]

21-22 since April 30.    Unfortunately they started the season 6-14.

[Sports Guy]

I think I had them around 64 wins and felt high 60s was possible if things went well.

Not overly surprised by the record although how they have gotten there is a little surprising.  I felt the pitching would be worse and the hitting would be better but I also didn’t anticipate the down offense across the league early on.

[jabba72]

It feels like we're hanging onto a cliff with a few fingers because of Zimmermann, Lyles and Bradish all not pitching well at the same time. If those three were performing I would like the team alot more going forward. Our seasons hopes kind of rests on those 3. Kremer coming back could help solidify the #5 spot, but there really isnt anyone else. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, jabba72 said:

It feels like we're hanging onto a cliff with a few fingers because of Zimmermann, Lyles and Bradish all not pitching well at the same time. If those three were performing I would like the team alot more going forward. Our seasons hopes kind of rests on those 3. Kremer coming back could help solidify the #5 spot, but there really isnt anyone else. 

I expect the SP will continue to gradually fall. I’m he question is, will that bring the bullpen down?  I think the lineup is coming together and can make a significant jump the rest of the season. 
 

Hall is the only realistic SP reinforcement. Unless when we trade Mancini and Santander that we get SP options back. 

[Sports Guy]

ESPN has an article up now about the tiers of teams and where they stand as teams to make a trade, sell, buy, etc..for each team, they give you the average win total based on the simulations they ran and they have the Os at 67.8 wins.

[jabba72]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

I expect the SP will continue to gradually fall. I’m he question is, will that bring the bullpen down?  I think the lineup is coming together and can make a significant jump the rest of the season. 
 

Hall is the only realistic SP reinforcement. Unless when we trade Mancini and Santander that we get SP options back. 

Its hard to count on Hall when he's probably on a strict innings limit and is walking close 5.5 in Norfolk. The ideal scenario would be to get back starters for Mancini and Santander. Dont know if thats possible though. 

[sportsfan8703]

Right now this team reminds me of the Buck teams when Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson were in the rotation. Each night we’re trying to get all 5 SP through 4-5 IP and hope we’re still in the game to hand it over to the A side of the pen. We have a weaker offense than those Buck teams. 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Its hard to count on Hall when he's probably on a strict innings limit and is walking close 5.5 in Norfolk. The ideal scenario would be to get back starters for Mancini and Santander. Dont know if thats possible though. 

I feel that any starters that could help this year would not be available for Mancini and Santander.  Teams that would acquire Mancini and Santander, especially Mancini would be trying to make the playoffs this year, and I don't see that kind of starter being available from a playoff contending team.  The O's could look for a trade that brings back a couple of starting pitching prospects.  I don't think a GrayRod or even DL Hall prospect will be available, maybe a slight step up from Kremer, Zimmerman, Bradish type prospect. 

[Tony-OH]

38 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

We're still far off.  

13-12 is probably the best 25 game stretch (paging @Frobbyto the thread) since 2018.  But all it is, is a 25 game stretch.  We were .500 in May, probably the only .500 month we've had since 2018, too.

Stowers probably isn't here past the Jays series, but he isn't far away.  AR35 is here, but he's not really hitting too well yet.

I will say the season is going surprisingly well, although @Tony-OHand @Sports Guywill be here to admonish me for saying that.  

One thing they're not taking into consideration is RS/RA:

May 2021:  108 RS/163 RA

May 2022:  128 RS/145 RA

June 2021:  131 RS/ 172 RA

June 2022:  63 RS/67 RA

We're halfway through June and only down 4 runs.  

And before anyone whines, yeah, I Ieft out April because it wasn't convenient for my argument.

Also mentioned on one of the broadcasts the other night was, IIRC, that we've had more come from behind wins this year already than we have in all of last year.  I think that adds to the "feeling" that people have talked about on here that others are quick to dismiss.  This team fights.  

I know, I know, I know, overall W/L record isn't that great and from a 25,000 foot view, sure, I agree.   And yes, SG, I agree that Elias and the Orioles are terrible for making everyone think that it would take 4 years to rebuild and they could have been better than they are now.  

But that's not what I'm saying.  What I am saying is that this team **so far** is better than it's been in awhile.  I'm not sure if that holds up for the rest of the summer but anyone who watches the games this year compared to the 2020 and 2021 teams can't tell me that this team isn't better.

That said, it still has a long, long way to go.

Haha, I'm not here to admonish anyone for being positive. There are things going on that are positive right now and the organization as a whole is better off than they were a few years ago.

As fans, you should look for the fun and enjoyment of the team in any way possible. 

The reality though is Elias is in his 4th season with the Orioles and the team is 19 games out of first place, the team is 9 games under .500, with the 7th worse record in the league. While wins and losses in the minor leagues are not a great barometer, all of the Elias minor league teams with his draft picks or signings outside of Aberdeen or pretty bad. The GCL and DSL teams are awful. Outside of Henderson, no prospect has broken out this year but many have regressed from their standing at the end of last year. Stowers and now Westburg in AAA look promising and are close, but what pitching help is on the way? Outside of Hall and Rodriguez (Both Rajsich draft picks) who is going to provide help to the rotation? 

I think Rutschman is going to hit so I'm not overly worried about his slow start, but it would have been nice to see him look like he belongs offensively right away at the big league level. He's not young for a prospect and was supposed to be an advanced hitter.

So let's say Henderson, Westburg and Stowers all hit their 90th percentile in potential and become everyday big leaguers. The lineup looks pretty decent then for sure.

My question then is, where does the pitching come from? Elias has decided against really drafting pitching highly or signing high priced pitching in the Latin America? Do you feel John Angelos is going to spend money while his brother is suing him?

The team is certainly better than the worse record in baseball awfulness that they've been over the years so I'm sure it does feel better, but at the end of the day, looking at the AL East, this team has a long, long way to go to compete.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Right now this team reminds me of the Buck teams when Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson were in the rotation. Each night we’re trying to get all 5 SP through 4-5 IP and hope we’re still in the game to hand it over to the A side of the pen. We have a weaker offense than those Buck teams. 

The O's of 2012-2016 made it to the playoffs with a bunch of #3-5 starters.  Ideally the O's would sign a good #2 starter this offseason (I can dream).  A rotation headed by GrayRod (stay healthy!), FA starter and Means could be much superior to those 2012=2016 teams.  2023 O's offense should improve by replacing Odor, Mateo, and Nevin with guys that can actually hit ML pitching.