Orioles offense: wOBA vs. xwOBA

[Frobby]

Looking at wOBA vs. xwOBA is a good way to anticipate which players may see an improvement or degradation in their performance over the rest of the year.  Here’s how the O’s stack up so far:

Mullins .303/.311

Hays .354/.349

Mancini .352/.397

Mountcastle .340/.396

Santander .332/.345

Mateo .252/.283

Odor .293/.278

Urias .288/.330

Chirinos .234/.252

Nevin .272/.319

Rutschman .281/.333

McKenna .271/.229

It certainly seems like there’s more upside than downside in there.  And if you look at how the season has progressed:

April 2.95 runs/game, .606 OPS

May 4.27 runs/game, .691 OPS

June (to date) 5.33 runs/game, .757 OPS

It feels like we’ve been reverting to the mean for a while now after some tough luck early.  We expected this team to be decent offensively, and after a slow start that prompted a lot of concern, that’s how it’s beginning to look.   Of course, the fact that we’re not playing the Yankees every third series right now has helped.   

[ChosenOne21]

So everyone except Hays, Odor, and McKenna are underperforming their xwOBA? That's encouraging. This offense still has some room to grow

[Frobby]

Updating this for players who had the biggest gaps before

Urias .301/.345

Mountcastle .346/.387

Mancini .339/.386

Mateo .263/.286

Rutschman .309/.348

McKenna .269/.267

Still some pretty big gaps there.   McKenna’s prior good luck evened out.   

[Frobby]

Final numbers, wOBA vs. xwOBA:

Santander .336/.352

Mullins .315/.288

Hays .314/.298

Mountcastle .316/.362

Odor .278/.277

Urias .313/.320

Mateo .281/.272

Rutschman .354/.342

Chirinos .251/.245

McKenna .279/.267

Nevin .261/.293

Henderson .343/.338

Vavra .303/.318

Stowers .316/.335

Mountcastle had the biggest gap, 46 points, and that was pretty consistent throughout the season.  Mullins had the biggest “negative” gap, outperforming his xwOBA by 27 points, and that was after he’d underformed his xwOBA through mid-June.   Worth noting, I’d usually expect a fast player to outperform his xwOBA by a bit, by getting some infield hits and stretching some singles into doubles, doubles into triples, etc.

[Ripken]

I'd sure love to see Mountcastle put up a good 2023 for us.  While his results were not good this year, his fancy stats show he was very unlucky.

[btdart20]

eXpected Weighted On-Base Average...  That combination of words doesn't really scream out that Mountcastle should be the highest on the team!    I think there's more in the tank for 2023, but that gap has to have some amplified math involed too.  The last two years he had a .328/.326 xwOBA for reference (but he's also still in growth mode to counter that too).  Regardless, it's a good indicator of direction even if I don't buy the degree.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

eXpected Weighted On-Base Average...  That combination of words doesn't really scream out that Mountcastle should be the highest on the team!    I think there's more in the tank for 2023, but that gap has to have some amplified math involed too.  The last two years he had a .328/.326 xwOBA for reference (but he's also still in growth mode to counter that too).  Regardless, it's a good indicator of direction even if I don't buy the degree.

I think that’s fair.  Also, the Wall is causing some “expected” homers to become outs and doubles.  That’s not a full explanation, but a partial one.  Interestingly, Mountcastle hit much better at home (.767 OPS) than on the road (.691).