O's on the edge of contention in July

[sportsfan8703]

1.5 GB. 

[Frobby]

It’s amazing how the 6th wild card spot has dropped from about a .550 winning percentage a few weeks ago to .522 now.   As things stand today, 85 wins makes the playoffs.  I’m still skeptical that will hold, but it’s part of the reason we’ve climbed into contention for the final spot.   

[Sports Guy]

Everyone keeps talking about how the key will be how the pitching holds up.  While I don’t disagree that the pitching is important, we need to start scoring runs.

The team is currently 10th in the AL in runs scored and all 4 ALE have scored more (although TB only has 1 more run) and we only play 6 games against the ALE ranked below us.  We also play 5 games vs NL teams who have scored less than us.

Luckily, as Frobby pointed out in a recent thread, there is hope that the bats can turn around and be better.

[NCRaven]

We have two lineup black holes in Mateo and Odor.  Promote Vavra and Westburg.  I believe that will be a significant improvement.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

We have two lineup black holes in Mateo and Odor.  Promote Vavra and Westburg.  I believe that will be a significant improvement.

But what about defensively?

But yes, I agree with your point overall.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Everyone keeps talking about how the key will be how the pitching holds up.  While I don’t disagree that the pitching is important, we need to start scoring runs.

The team is currently 10th in the AL in runs scored and all 4 ALE have scored more (although TB only has 1 more run) and we only play 6 games against the ALE ranked below us.  We also play 5 games vs NL teams who have scored less than us.

Luckily, as Frobby pointed out in a recent thread, there is hope that the bats can turn around and be better.

I’d argue it’s already been happening, and our somewhat low ranking is skewed because April was so bad.  Runs per game by month, league average in parentheses:

April -2.95 (3.91)

May - 4.27 (4.18)

June - 4.65 (4.38)

July - 4.75 (4.35)

Our runs/game have increased each month and have been above the average by increasing amounts in May, June and July so far.   Hopefully that trend continues.   

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

We have two lineup black holes in Mateo and Odor.  Promote Vavra and Westburg.  I believe that will be a significant improvement.

But Westburg is probably a defensive downgrade and Vavra is by no means a sure thing to outperform Odor overall. Are you sure you want to break up an infield that has just won 10 straight?

[George Zuverink]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

But Westburg is probably a defensive downgrade and Vavra is by no means a sure thing to outperform Odor overall. Are you sure you want to break up an infield that has just won 10 straight?

Kind of feel the same way. But what about Henderson for Urias at 3B?

[Aristotelian]

Just now, George Zuverink said:

Kind of feel the same way. But what about Henderson for Urias at 3B?

Whether it's Westburg or Henderson, I think I would put either at SS over Mateo instead of 3B. Urias has come on lately. The Orioles winning lately is really complicating these decisions.

[ChuckS]

2 minutes ago, George Zuverink said:

Kind of feel the same way. But what about Henderson for Urias at 3B?

Urias is ahead of both Odor and Mateo in the IF playing time pecking order IMO.

Odor is the first guy I’d consider replacing. You could move Urias back to second if his replacement fit better at third. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

But Westburg is probably a defensive downgrade and Vavra is by no means a sure thing to outperform Odor overall. Are you sure you want to break up an infield that has just won 10 straight?

What is the goal?  The goal should be to get better.  You don’t allow a 10 game stretch to dictate what you do.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

We have two lineup black holes in Mateo and Odor.  Promote Vavra and Westburg.  I believe that will be a significant improvement.

Curious...why Vavra not Gunnar?

The middle infield will be juicy if the team hangs in there.     Setting aside the Never Mess with a Streak things, nobody's going anywhere as long as the current mix keeps winning a lot, for however pleasantly long that keeps up.

The tricky part is in Month1, for as good as I hope Gunnar-Westburg can be, pretty fair chance they are similar in short-term effectiveness to Mateo-Odor, and anybody can have the Kelenic-Torkelson things happen.     That'd be an awful pressure vise for important young players, if it happened.

Three months out though, can't imagine the current middle infield handling playoff caliber pitching the way the young thoroughbreds might.     Chicken-egg, is Rougned Odor the Greatest Clubhouse Guy ever because of who he is, or because he's a borderline big leaguer enjoying a full-time job?    Does he scale if you ask him to take a smaller role?

[Aristotelian]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What is the goal?  The goal should be to get better.  You don’t allow a 10 game stretch to dictate what you do.

We are 45-44, 1.5 games out of the wild card, after 99 games. It happens that the last 10 games helped get us there. 

I agree getting better long term is still the overarching priority, but I am fine with making some adjustments to give ourselves the best chance of continuing this run. Delaying Westburg until rosters expand wouldn't greatly harm his development but might give us the best chance as long as Mateo is playing well. Then again, promoting him a few weeks ahead of schedule might put us over the top. I'd be happy either way if it works out. 

[Aristotelian]

89, duh. 

[NCRaven]

To explain, I’d promote Vavra (2B) and Westburg (SS).  I’d play Urias at (3B).  I’d use Mateo as a pinch runner, late inning defensive replacement and give him an occasional start at short. You can DFA Nevin and Arauz at any time.  If Santander or Mancini are traded, Stowers is the next man up in RF.  I believe that, overall, this gives the team more offense and remains solid on defense.

When they believe Henderson is ready, they can make a decision between Urias and Vavra at 2B.