We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[sportsfan8703]

I’m guessing they used the evening break to negotiate a number with one of the HS kids. Could be a pitcher or hitter. I’m guessing hitter though. The OF from Mercer is in play too. 
 

I love what they’ve done in the draft so far. We are about to be completely loaded with bats from Norfolk to Delmarva. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Friend texted me that they wanted Whisenhunt. 

[RZNJ]

Well, they certainly don't draft for need.  On some level you have to admire that they have a process and don't deviate from it.   

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Friend texted me that they wanted Whisenhunt. 

Then they should have taken him.  I guess the first 2 guys were higher on their board.  I respect that if they truly went BPA.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

Kinda have to wonder about how that seems to be a reoccurring issue for the team.

Maybe they need to work on their models predicting other teams actions?

[RZNJ]

I am not disappointed we didn't get Whisenhunt.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kinda have to wonder about how that seems to be a reoccurring issue for the team.

Maybe they need to work on their models predicting other teams actions?

Well, there are many ways to look at it.  I think it’s obvious that Sigs draft model doesn’t value pitching at the level it does hitting.  That makes sense to me.  I think hitting is easier to predict and is easier to develop.

That said, they are also taking hitters who have a lot of question marks, so there is a big trust in their development.

They also seem to be going BPA and not reaching for “a need”.  That is also my preference.  
 

What I would love to know is, do their scouts match up with their computer modeling and if they don’t, where is the disconnect?

[RZNJ]

Obviously, getting pitching in the draft is not a priority for them or they would overdraft pitchers on their board to make sure they got some. 

 

[seak05]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I do think they will be underslot (or if they are, its not by much) but I also don’t think they go overslot either (or if they do, it won’t be by much)

Fabian has no leverage anymore.  He went back to school and dropped in the draft.  He could choose to go again but what is he going to gain?  He gambled once and lost.  Is he going to keep gambling?  Last year, the knock on him is hit hit tool.  He went back to college, gained more experience, seemingly worked on his hit tool and still has a giant question mark about it.  

The leverage is gone.

Beavers has a questionable swing.  He isn’t going back either.  A clear slot or slightly under slot guy.

Wagner, who didn’t even start the year as a starter, could in theory go back to school.  He is the only guy out of the 3 who really has some amount of leverage but with a slot of 1.8M, I’m doubting it takes more than 2.3 to sign him and considering he wasn’t even a starter to begin the year, I’m guessing he will be happy to take the 1.8M And get his pro career started.

 

Wagner could also bet on himself, if he goes back to school, repeats his success, he’s in line to easily be a first round pick - maybe more, and he’ll still be a junior 

Your basic assumption seems to be you can lowball college guys bc they won’t go back to school. Fabian has little leverage it’s true, bc he returned to school. But my expectation is that Beavers and Wagner will be at least full slot

[seak05]

I would love to see the orioles take a pitcher, especially Porter. My guess is that a lot of the analytics devalue pitchers as compared to where more scout oriented teams have them.

That said, you need to have pitchers on your minor league teams

[Sports Guy]

Just now, seak05 said:

Wagner could also bet on himself, if he goes back to school, repeats his success, he’s in line to easily be a first round pick - maybe more, and he’ll still be a junior 

Your basic assumption seems to be you can lowball college guys bc they won’t go back to school. Fabian has little leverage it’s true, bc he returned to school. But my expectation is that Beavers and Wagner will be at least full slot

Yes, that’s why I said Wagner could go back to school and I laid out why.

My assumption is if a college player is in the draft and gets drafted, chances are they aren’t going back to school.  It happens, like Fabian last year, but I’m guessing the number of college guys who go back to school after being drafted is less than 10% and perhaps much less than that.

And not a lot of college guys get overslot and if they do, it’s normally a few hundred K.  You don’t see college guys getting the big bonuses like you do for HS kids.

And sure, they may get slot but let’s stop pretending that they have much leverage here.  If Beavers wants to risk exposure with that swing and be another year older, go ahead.  I’m guessing he wants nothing to do with that and that giving him anywhere between 2-2.3M (which is slot) will work.

These guys aren’t going to go back to school over low 6 figure numbers.  It’s just not happening.  Fabian is one of the few who did it and it blew up in his face.

[seak05]

The orioles can go up to about 17.7m if you include the 5% overspend 

Holiday deal is supposed to be over 8m, my guess is it takes about 6m to sign the three college players. So they’ve already spent about 14-14.5 of the draft pool. You take Porter in the third, and your draft is basically done. Might be more worth it to spread the remaining 3-3.5m out on a few 1m dollar guys (Especially given how risky pitching is) 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

51 minutes ago, csgordos said:

Good morning. Been some time since posting. 
 

have to wonder if the “success” with pitchers like Watkins, Voth, Perez, etc has the analytics department think they can continue to take waiver players and max their value?   Take other teams higher round picks who are older, tweak them a little, trade them for competitive picks and then draft best player available.  

Waiver wire adds for your SP staff  likely won’t get you to the division series. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, waroriole said:

I don’t see us having saved enough from slot to be able to sign Porter. I assume the next couple of picks are either college OF or senior pitchers who have high spin rates. 

 

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Hopefully they take Porter….he looks like value here

 

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Agreed on Porter, obviously would love to have him however.

After robo umps are implemented, Robo pitchers will make drafting pitching a thing of the past. OFers will be made into pitching cyborgs. The lower the batting average in college, the higher the spin rate. Pure genius!

 

On one hand, I think evidence at this juncture points to Porter not signing with anyone. On the other hand, O’s may be uniquely positioned to make it happen. Slot value for the pick, plus assumed savings from Holliday, plus any savings from picks 2-4, plus their allowable overage, plus a senior signing or two down-board may be enough to get to his number. 
 

also, they’ve had a chance overnight to clarify their numbers/current position and connect with Porter’s representation.