We are up. Who do you want for pick 81, and who do you think they will take?

[seak05]

6 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

My bad, I didn't realize it was going to take full slot to sign Holliday.

It’s going to take most of it. He’s apparently getting over 8m. This wasn’t an underslot pick. 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

And you should be trying to predict what players will and won't be available. 

If your later round targets are consistently being picked before you select them you should probably work on getting better at predicting what other teams will do.

They seem to mention this happening every year, it might be an area in which they can improve.

Or they do as well as ever other team in this regard but just complain about it more.  That is a possibility.

 

Hello!  Every team, in every round sees players drafted 1-5 picks in front of them that they would have picked if they were still available at that pick. It's not about predicting.  It's common sense on how any draft works.

Whisenhunt wasn't high enough on their board to be picked at #42. He was gone before #67.  That happens to every team in every round.

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They haven’t gone under slot though, so I’m not sure what strategy you think they’re implementing 

They went underslot at 1(btw, when I say that, I mean they won’t have to sign the guy for slot value, which was the case with anyone they took).
 

They have the extra money as well.  They have the ability to punt later picks and sign them for nothing to gain even more money.

If the goal is to bring the best and highest ceiling talent into the organization, they have the money to do it and this first pick is when it should happen.  You have a top 25 talent (some as high as 12) sitting there.   Now, maybe the Os hate Porter.  He apparently has a violent delivery.  Maybe they see something they don’t like.  If so, that’s fine.  But at some point, we need to see some overslot, higher ceiling talents, ala Mayo and Baumler.  They didn’t do that last year.  So far they haven’t done it this year despite those players being on the board.  
 

We just need to see today.  Can’t judge them yet.  I think it’s fair to question these last 3 picks in comparison to what was available.  I also think it’s fair to really like the picks and the upside they possess.  I’m kind of on the fence about them.  I would have been fine with 2 of them and a higher ceiling overslot sign.  
 

Not sure you need Beavers and Fabian.  I thought Fabian was still in play heading into yesterday but thought the Beavers pick would cancel that out.  
 

Im not that upset they didn’t push for pitching according to their board but I think it’s fair to question why their models don’t value pitching higher. 

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe he could get that batting average up over .200 in conference play.

 

Maybe.  You are a laugh a minute.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, RZNJ said:

Hello!  Every team, in every round sees players drafted 1-5 picks in front of them that they would have picked if they were still available at that pick. It's not about predicting.  It's common sense on how any draft works.

Whisenhunt wasn't high enough on their board to be picked at #42. He was gone before #67.  That happens to every team in every round.

Yep.  You can’t predict how teams will draft.  There were teams in the 20s and 30s that would have bet a lot of money that Rocker was going to be there.  

Stuff happens.

However, this is also why you don’t wait on guys and why you don’t do the underslot thing early..because you don’t know who will be there.  You always should take your BPa with your first pick.  Don’t worry about savings.  Take your guy.

Luckily, the Os did that this year.

 

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

And you should be trying to predict what players will and won't be available. 

If your later round targets are consistently being picked before you select them you should probably work on getting better at predicting what other teams will do.

They seem to mention this happening every year, it might be an area in which they can improve.

Or they do as well as ever other team in this regard but just complain about it more.  That is a possibility.

 

Your assumption is that they view that there is a significant difference between the guys they picked vs. the pitchers they missed out on.   It may be that they really like Wagner more than any of the pitchers available at that time and were willing to risk losing out on all the pitchers for the Fabian slot if that is what it came to.

For the brief period of time that Kevin Goldstein was back with Fangraphs, he mentioned that the Astros for a few drafts had analytics that other teams didn't seem to understand as well as the Astros that allowed them to wait on pitching in the draft or get it through the international market.  He then said that one year, all of the sudden it became clear that the other teams had caught on.  That might have happened to the Orioles here in the second round or maybe they are confident that between trades, later draft picks, and the international market they will be fine pitching-wise.  It would be a lot more comforting if we had seen them develop some pitchers that they drafted but the success with some major league guys offers some hope.  

[baltfan]

One thing that is getting lost a bit in this discussion is that generally it seems like the prospect gurus like the Orioles draft so far including all of their picks with maybe the exception of Fabian to a certain degree.  Last year, a lot of the the gurus seemed less than impressed with the guys we took after Cowser in light of the money that was saved.  

[seak05]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They went underslot at 1(btw, when I say that, I mean they won’t have to sign the guy for slot value, which was the case with anyone they took).
 

They have the extra money as well.  They have the ability to punt later picks and sign them for nothing to gain even more money.

If the goal is to bring the best and highest ceiling talent into the organization, they have the money to do it and this first pick is when it should happen.  You have a top 25 talent (some as high as 12) sitting there.   Now, maybe the Os hate Porter.  He apparently has a violent delivery.  Maybe they see something they don’t like.  If so, that’s fine.  But at some point, we need to see some overslot, higher ceiling talents, ala Mayo and Baumler.  They didn’t do that last year.  So far they haven’t done it this year despite those players being on the board.  
 

We just need to see today.  Can’t judge them yet.  I think it’s fair to question these last 3 picks in comparison to what was available.  I also think it’s fair to really like the picks and the upside they possess.  I’m kind of on the fence about them.  I would have been fine with 2 of them and a higher ceiling overslot sign.  
 

Not sure you need Beavers and Fabian.  I thought Fabian was still in play heading into yesterday but thought the Beavers pick would cancel that out.  
 

Im not that upset they didn’t push for pitching according to their board but I think it’s fair to question why their models don’t value pitching higher. 

They’ve saved a few hundred thousand at 1, and the extra pool money is several hundred thousand so they have maybe 1.2m extra to play with. I don’t think that gets you Porter, unless you also go way under with the entire rest of your draft. That’s a big risk.

I think you maybe sign a few guys to over slot, but more in the range baumler and Mayo range with that savings (and keep in mind Wagner might be one of those guys).

I think it’s fair to question the draft strategy in terms of who they took, while also acknowledging it’s not money saving.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They’ve saved a few hundred thousand at 1, and the extra pool money is several hundred thousand so they have maybe 1.2m extra to play with. I don’t think that gets you Porter, unless you also go way under with the entire rest of your draft. That’s a big risk.

I think you maybe sign a few guys to over slot, but more in the range baumler and Mayo range with that savings (and keep in mind Wagner might be one of those guys).

I think it’s fair to question the draft strategy in terms of who they took, while also acknowledging it’s not money saving.

Well, I know SportsGuy would say to take Porter and punt the rest of the draft and their is some merit to that IF you like Porter.   

 

[baltfan]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

They’ve saved a few hundred thousand at 1, and the extra pool money is several hundred thousand so they have maybe 1.2m extra to play with. I don’t think that gets you Porter, unless you also go way under with the entire rest of your draft. That’s a big risk.

I think you maybe sign a few guys to over slot, but more in the range baumler and Mayo range with that savings (and keep in mind Wagner might be one of those guys).

I think it’s fair to question the draft strategy in terms of who they took, while also acknowledging it’s not money saving.

Let's remember that when they drafted Mayo and Baumler, the prospect gurus weren't clamoring for them to be drafted but liked the picks a lot once they were made.  There are likely people out there we aren't talking about that people think are likely going to college that would be a good risk.

[sevastras]

When you draft need over BPA, you end up with Matusz instead of Buster Posey.  Although, they did pick up Caleb Joseph later in the draft, so maybe the Os won that draft. (Spoiler- they didn’t. SF picked right behind them and ended up with better players)

[seak05]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Well, I know SportsGuy would say to take Porter and punt the rest of the draft and their is some merit to that IF you like Porter.   

 

Yeah I can see the argument & it has validity. But you have to really like Porter.

Given how unpredictable both the draft in general and hs pitchers are in particular…it makes me a bit gunshy 

[RZNJ]

Is Ben Joyce still available?  

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, seak05 said:

Yeah I can see the argument & it has validity. But you have to really like Porter.

Given how unpredictable both the draft in general and hs pitchers are in particular…it makes me a bit gunshy 

Sure, but the chances of getting a ML regular start going way down anyway at this point and you can still get your Cedric Mullins type lottery pick after 10.

Meaning it's even more of a crapshoot at this point anyway.

[jabba72]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is Ben Joyce still available?  

According to fangraphs yes he is available.