Draft Signings

[baltfan]

35 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Agree that they wanted to have extra guys to throw money at, so they aren't left with extra slot money on the books or if someone fails a medical.  So, may as well have someone good queued up as plan B.

But why do you think they lean toward Showalter of the 3 after the 10th pick?  I would try to get him signed before any of the other 2 guys. 

To speculate some more:  Maybe Young was a true medical plan B (i.e. they had a ton of leftover money) so they never expected to sign him otherwise?    Maybe having Walter is team leverage in the negotiations with Young?

They likely agreed on a number with Showalter prior to making him the first pick of day 3.  They don't want to go back on that agreement.  

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think they may be able to get 2 out of 3. I imagine the Orioles know their numbers. Once they can get Showalter under contract and he passes the physical, then they can take the rest and tell Walters and Young, first one that takes it gets it.

I would imagine the odds are better that it is Walters that goes for it.  He doesn't have the upside and the Orioles have proven that they can do excellent work with relievers.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, baltfan said:

I would imagine the odds are better that it is Walters that goes for it.  He doesn't have the upside and the Orioles have proven that they can do excellent work with relievers.  

The more I read up on Walters and Young, I don't think the Orioles should break the bank for either. I like Walters more than Young because you can't teach 99 MPH, and Young has too much risk with way too much miss against college pitching. Get Showalter done and if they can pull of Walters, I'd be happy.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The more I read up on Walters and Young, I don't think the Orioles should break the bank for either. I like Walters more than Young because you can't teach 99 MPH, and Young has too much risk with way too much miss against college pitching. Get Showalter done and if they can pull of Walters, I'd be happy.

I agree on Walters. He is nasty, and it’s easy ched. It sounds like Young needs to get healthy and to find an approach more suited to his physicality and ability. I think he’s a talent you take a shot at. I think they could present a legitimate case to Young that they develop hitters well now, and he would be better off beginning his pro career now and have a chance to make MLb money sooner. 

If the remaining figure is $1.4 million for McLean, Showalter, Young and Walters, it might be tough to get all four. McLean should be an over slot as an eligible Sophomore. The rest, I have no idea what it takes. Stotle said it might take seven figures on Young. If that is the case, I think they’re out on that. 

[terpfan101]

My initial comment about $1.6M for the three guys was a try for all 3 but expect two if possible. For Young and Walters if they get offered 500-600k to sign they are making a pretty big gamble going back for their senior year, especially Young. He has another crap year or gets hurt and he has zero leverage next year. He’s basically gotta be a second round pick to make significantly more and delays the path to the majors and big league money. Walters as a reliever is betting big on the same deal, and how many relievers were taken in the first 2-3 rounds?

Forgot that first $125k doesn’t count for the three of them so that’s good and really means ~1.9M for the three in total. Feels doable if McLean is at slot.

However if the two of them are looking for top 2 round money there’s likely no chance.

[brvn52]

So things are much more in focus. O's have $2.39M left (if they use 105%). $1.54M left (if they use 100%). With 11/12 players signed.

$794k would be the slot for McClean.

If he signs for slot, that leaves a little under $1.6M (based off 105%...$750k based off 100%) for the late round guys. Again, the first $125k doesn't count towards the bonus pool for those guys.

Theoretically, they'd have $1.725M for 1 guy, $1.85M for 2 guys, or $1.975M for all 3. Divide those numbers how you wish.

So still plenty of money to sign one (Showalter). Maybe two. But I'm guessing three isn't going to happen..

[LookinUp]

Showalter is my top choice of the over slots. Toss up between the other two. I like Walters, but hesitate to over value relievers.

[RZNJ]

I predict that McLean and Showalter sign and neither Walter or Young (Walter Young!) sign.   O's don't go one penny over the total pool amount.

[AnythingO's]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I predict that McLean and Showalter sign and neither Walter or Young (Walter Young!) sign.   O's don't go one penny over the total pool amount.

I think you are right but that means if McLean gets slot then Showalter gets $125K plus about $750K which seems high for 11th round.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I think you are right but that means if McLean gets slot then Showalter gets $125K plus about $750K which seems high for 11th round.

Showalter isn't viewed as a typical 11th round pick so that slot (125K ) goes out the window.    If Showalter was willing to sign for 300K or 500K he probably gets taken in the 4th - 7th round by some team.    The reason he's there in the 11th is because he told teams before the draft "I'm going to college unless someone throws 1M at me".     

[brvn52]

One thing to note - if McLean doesn’t sign, it doesn’t affect the discussion on the overslot guys a ton. The extra room we’d have under the 105% would decrease by about $40k (we’d lose the extra 5% of the $794k slot) (**Note: I’ve been posting assuming he signs for slot. So him signing for slot vs not signing has basically no impact on the remaining pool amount). But we’d still be about $750k below our current slot levels and $1.56M below the 105%. 
 

Where things could get interesting is if McLean signs overslot. Every dollar over $794k eats into the amount we have for the other 3. 
 

I’m not worried at this point. Elias has earned our trust in *this* portion of the process IMO. We’ll see what happens!

[baltfan]

Guys seems to be getting paid.   Termarr signed for overslot, $7.2mm (guess he wouldn’t cut much of a deal for the Orioles) and Rays pick Isaac who many thought was for sure below slot went for slot.  I hope the Orioles get Showalter and Walters but prices seem up this year as is evidenced by the Orioles saving little except with the first pick. 

[brvn52]

Interesting note by Callis. Sounds like McLean has the potential to be significantly overslot.

[RZNJ]

On 7/28/2022 at 7:45 PM, RZNJ said:

Showalter isn't viewed as a typical 11th round pick so that slot (125K ) goes out the window.    If Showalter was willing to sign for 300K or 500K he probably gets taken in the 4th - 7th round by some team.    The reason he's there in the 11th is because he told teams before the draft "I'm going to college unless someone throws 1M at me".     

Of course, I was 100% wrong. So why didn't some team take him in rounds 4-7?

This suggests he wasn't valued by other teams as much as the Orioles or that the Orioles knew something other teams didn't or had some type of inside track.

Edited July 31, 2022 by RZNJ

[Jammer7]

We figured McLean, a draft eligible Sophomore, would be a good amount over slot when he was drafted. We are relatively confident the Orioles knew the number it would take to sign him before taking him as the first pick on day 2. The delay in his signing is curious.

Andrew Walters, Alden Mathes, James Hicks and Carter Young remain unsigned as well. We have been told Young might not be signable, with his signing with LSU. Walters might be a back up to McLean, but seems unlikely as well. Are Mathes and Hicks going to be over the $125K guys too? Interesting finish to this class.

Edit: I just read an article in the draft tracker post about Mathes not signing. Too bad. 

Edited July 31, 2022 by Jammer7
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