Holliday at 1 overall

[tinman]

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

[Fiver6565]

You realize 4 of the top 5 players picked were HS players, right?  And the 5th was a guy coming off an arm injury as a pitcher.  Yes, high school kids are risky picks.  But everyone in the top 5 carries risk.

 

By all accounts Jackson's hit tool is really good, and Elias has stated numerous times that they project him as staying at SS.  So not sure where your concerns are coming from.

[tinman]

4 minutes ago, Fiver6565 said:

You realize 4 of the top 5 players picked were HS players, right?  And the 5th was a guy coming off an arm injury as a pitcher.  Yes, high school kids are risky picks.  But everyone in the top 5 carries risk.

 

By all accounts Jackson's hit tool is really good, and Elias has stated numerous times that they project him as staying at SS.  So not sure where your concerns are coming from.

 

I get it. But he was #1 overall. 1! As in nobody picked before him. An entire nation full of players and he was the guy picked. So given that he was picked before everybody else I was expecting a cannon for an arm and potential for if not already showing some serious pop in the bat.

Edited July 27, 2022 by tinman

[Fiver6565]

2 minutes ago, tinman said:

 

I get it. But he was #1 overall. 1! As in nobody picked before him. An entire nation full of players and he was the guy picked. So given that he was picked before everybody else I was expecting a cannon for an arm and potential for if not already showing some serious pop in the bat.

And what are you seeing that leads you to doubt he'll develop those things or doesn't already have them?  He probably goes #2 if we had picked Druw Jones.  Pretty consensus opinion that he belonged at or very near the top of the draft.  Who would you have picked?

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, tinman said:

 

I get it. But he was #1 overall. 1! As in nobody picked before him. An entire nation full of players and he was the guy picked. So given that he was picked before everybody else I was expecting a cannon for an arm and potential for if not already showing some serious pop in the bat.

Even at 1-1 there isn't always a clear next level talent.

I'd rather get someone like Holiday than a Spencer Torkelson type (not picking on him just because he's struggling this year).

Edited July 27, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[Roll Tide]

14 minutes ago, tinman said:

Not knocking this kid, but can somebody explain to me why he was drafted 1 overall? With Adley it was an obvious pick. He was a college player. Exceptional plate discipline. Above average MLB hitter and above average MLB defensive catcher. A rare find.

 

Holliday is a high school Shortstop. But does he really have MLB caliber SS talent? Does he really have the tools to be an above average defensive SS at the MLB level? His arm isn't that great according to the scouting reports. Does he have the quickness and athletic ability to truly play SS? Most top high schoolers start at SS, but then have to move to 3B because they can't cut it as a pro level SS. Hell, many of them even have to move off 3B because they can't cut the mustard at 3B either. End up moving to corner outfield or 1B once they make it to AA. An above league average defensive shortstop is one hell of a find at the MLB level. I don't know, from reading the scouting reports it sounds as though he won't be a plus MLB defender at SS or he will have to move off SS. What about his hitting. We will see. He's not projected to be a big power hitter. 

 

Wishing him all the luck as an O's fan, but these high school kids are risky picks.

 

 

He’s the son of a former MLB player. That doesn’t guarantee success but it helps. He’s been scouted and ranks among 4 or 5 guys that could’ve went #1. In Adley’s case and the following draft Torkleson there was a clear #1 pick. This year there just wasn’t that clear cut guy. 

[Fiver6565]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Even at 1-1 there isn't always a clear next level talent.

I'd rather get someone like Holiday than a Spencer Torkelson type (not picking on him just because he's struggling this year).

We also have a deep enough system where we didn't need to go 'safe' with this pick - they went for high upside because they could, and should, at this point.

[waroriole]

10 minutes ago, tinman said:

 

I get it. But he was #1 overall. 1! As in nobody picked before him. An entire nation full of players and he was the guy picked. So given that he was picked before everybody else I was expecting a cannon for an arm and potential for if not already showing some serious pop in the bat.

Maybe you can read up on him. There’s lots of info available. 

[RZNJ]

There were scouting reports before this season that had had him average in a lot of areas. Guess what?  17 year olds sometimes get bigger and faster and better.  This year, he was rated above average on every tool in including his arm.  He was declared the national HS player of the year and hit .617.  And the scouts love him. So...he went #1 and the majority opinion is that he CAN stick at SS if he doesn't bulk up too much.

[Frobby]

There are dozens of pages of discussions of the relative merits of Holliday and the other top candidates over on the amateur draft board.   You can start with this thread, which is 51 pages long:

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/41409-2022-early-look-top-prospects/

Or this 17-page thread on Holliday after he was chosen: https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/45163-2022-1st-round-pick-1-jackson-holliday-ss-stillwater-hs-ok/

 

[LookinUp]

Great hit tool. Speed. Power. Projects to stay at the most valuable position. ++ makeup. What’s not to like?

[Chaka Garcia]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Great hit tool. Speed. Power. Projects to stay at the most valuable position. ++ makeup. What’s not to like?

I agree on all these points. However, did anyone think he looked smaller than his listed height of 6’1? I understand Elias is 6’3, but he looked small next to him - seemed more like 5-10 or 5-11.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Chaka Garcia

[LookinUp]

Yep. He’s not huge.

[tntoriole]

So all the hundreds of scouts who have seen and analyzed players for the last year are all wrong and the OP is right because he doesn’t think he “looks like” a 1/1.  Give me a break. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

20 minutes ago, Chaka Garcia said:

I agree on all these points. However, did anyone think he looked smaller than his listed height of 6’1? I understand Elias is 6’3, but he looked small next to him - seemed more like 5-10 or 5-11.

Holliday should have a growth spurt once he hits puberty.