Cade Povich 2022

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 8/13/2022 at 4:48 PM, Sports Guy said:

Yea, you gotta love that ratio.

Its laughable that BA has him as the teams 29th best prospect.

It's sort of a placeholder ranking. He was a 2021 3rd round pick for the Twins and only pitched ~11 innings in 2021. Stuff has improved since draft as well. 

For comparison, Fangraphs (don't have a BA subscription) had John Rhodes, our 2021 3rd round pick, at #33 coming into the season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects/

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

It's sort of a placeholder ranking. He was a 2021 3rd round pick for the Twins and only pitched ~11 innings in 2021. Stuff has improved since draft as well. 

For comparison, Fangraphs (don't have a BA subscription) had John Rhodes, our 2021 3rd round pick, at #33 coming into the season: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects/

They are supposed to be a reliable source that gets thoughts from people in the organization.  To be that off is a joke.  No justification for that.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are supposed to be a reliable source that gets thoughts from people in the organization.  To be that off is a joke.  No justification for that.

So where do you rank him?

Personally, I don’t pay that much attention to the mid-season or post-trade rankings.   I think the post-season rankings are the ones where the evaluators are the most thorough and can really consider the full body of work and all the information they can gather, rather than reacting to a few good weeks of performance.  For example, Tony makes it pretty clear that his “hot list” isn’t to be taken as seriously as his final rankings.   I realize some of these publications present them a little more seriously but I don’t take them that way.  

At the end of the day, they’re all subjective anyway.
 

Edited August 21, 2022 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So where do you rank him?

Personally, I don’t pay that much attention to the mid-season or post-trade rankings.   I think the post-season rankings are the ones where the evaluators are the most thorough and can really consider the full body of work and all the information they can gather, rather than reacting to a few good weeks of performance.  For example, Tony makes it pretty clear that his “hot list” isn’t to be taken as seriously as his final rankings.   I realize some of these publications present them a little more seriously but I don’t take them that way.  

At the end of the day, they’re all subjective anyway.
 

They are the nationally recognized source for these types of things.  To be that far off is a joke for “experts in the field”.

I have him somewhere in the 8-12 area.  

[UMDTerrapins]

Looking forward to watching some video on him. The immediate thing that stood out to me looking at that tweet video is that he hides his pitches well (helps velocity play up slightly). Could say the same thing about Rom, but to a lesser degree. 

[Hallas]

14 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

They are the nationally recognized source for these types of things.  To be that far off is a joke for “experts in the field”.

I have him somewhere in the 8-12 area.  

I mentioned this before but I strongly suspect that the major publications only do midseason ratings updates for people that cracked the top 100.  For everyone else they just evaluate during the offseason.  Given that his ERA wasn't great even with his astronomical K and K/BB rates, I feel like he slipped through the cracks.  I am expecting a low-teens ranking from him in the offseason and a jump to around 45 FV.

 

I'm also a little confused as to why the publications didn't regrade him midseason to evaluate the trade, because they all mentioned it yet they are sticking with their preseason grade for him.  There is such a big difference between a prospect that sits 90 vs sitting 93-94.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Hallas

[LookinUp]

On 8/20/2022 at 3:13 PM, CharmCityHokie said:

In terms of actual stuff and shape of pitches, control, command, and velocity. I imagine Tony can speak more to that. 

Tony recently made a comment that Rom's changeup just hasn't gotten there. Seems like that change matters more as you move up levels and guys can handle low-mid 90s velo. 

[Sports Guy]

14 hours ago, Hallas said:

I mentioned this before but I strongly suspect that the major publications only do midseason ratings updates for people that cracked the top 100.  For everyone else they just evaluate during the offseason.  Given that his ERA wasn't great even with his astronomical K and K/BB rates, I feel like he slipped through the cracks.  I am expecting a low-teens ranking from him in the offseason and a jump to around 45 FV.

 

I'm also a little confused as to why the publications didn't regrade him midseason to evaluate the trade, because they all mentioned it yet they are sticking with their preseason grade for him.  There is such a big difference between a prospect that sits 90 vs sitting 93-94.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles
 

mlb.com has him 15th.  A little low imo but far better than BA.

Somehow they figured it out.  Zero excuse for BA not to.

[Hallas]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles
 

mlb.com has him 15th.  A little low imo but far better than BA.

Somehow they figured it out.  Zero excuse for BA not to.

Did they update this recently?  I seem to recall MLB ranking him in the low 20s immediately following the trade.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles
 

mlb.com has him 15th.  A little low imo but far better than BA.

Somehow they figured it out.  Zero excuse for BA not to.

Maybe they just have a different opinion.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Maybe they just have a different opinion.  

Which goes back to my original point that BA can’t be taken seriously if that’s what they believe.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Which goes back to my original point that BA can’t be taken seriously if that’s what they believe.

Who’s to say that BA is wrong and mlb.com is right?   I mean, I’d probably rank him significantly above where BA does, but what do I know?   Why are you so sure he should be ranked higher?

Fangraphs has him at 19 BTW.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Who’s to say that BA is wrong and mlb.com is right?   I mean, I’d probably rank him significantly above where BA does, but what do I know?   Why are you so sure he should be ranked higher?

Fangraphs has him at 19 BTW.

Well, Tony has talked about how outside the top 20, the system isn’t great.  Now maybe that’s a little deeper post draft and deadline but still…29 is an awful ranking.  

Too advanced, performance too strong, increased velo, etc…

[Frobby]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well, Tony has talked about how outside the top 20, the system isn’t great.  Now maybe that’s a little deeper post draft and deadline but still…29 is an awful ranking.  

Too advanced, performance too strong, increased velo, etc…

Was just looking at Fangraphs again. Longenhagen has 16 players ranked as 40 FV, including Povich.  Everyone between 19 and 35 on their current list.  So, 29 wouldn’t seem crazy based on their tiers.  

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, Tony has talked about how outside the top 20, the system isn’t great.  Now maybe that’s a little deeper post draft and deadline but still…29 is an awful ranking.  

Too advanced, performance too strong, increased velo, etc…

It’s hard to be great 20+. That’s where the DSL players really gotta keep that quality depth going. You can only do so much by drafting. However, I do think this recent draft was big, and the hitters are legit. Nevertheless, we still need the big time DSL signees.