57 games remaining

[Spy Fox]

After the Pirates series, 23 of the next 24 games are against AL contenders. If this team is still in the WC race on Sep 1 they will have certainly earned it.

[Just Regular]

Today the FG projections have the 3rd AL wildcard at 84.4 wins.    That'd translate into a 83-79 type track still having meaningful games until the very last few.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

[now]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Out Of the Park Baseball is pretty good.

True. I started with S-O-M back in '65, tried them all over the years, and OOTP was the best. 

[csgordos]

I really wish we had 2 dominant SP (Means and Rodriguez) and a healthy Wells,  then I would believe 83 wins.  I just don’t see our starters doing well against playoff contenders going forward.  Really hoping you can all quote me in September about how wrong I am/was.  

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, csgordos said:

I really wish we had 2 dominant SP (Means and Rodriguez) and a healthy Wells,  then I would believe 83 wins.  I just don’t see our starters doing well against playoff contenders going forward.  Really hoping you can all quote me in September about how wrong I am/was.  

I think the OTHER contenders need to be afraid of us, not the other way around!

We’ve had trouble with the Yankees, but only play them 3 more times, so that’s pretty much a non-factor.  We’re 8-8 against Tampa, and only play 3 with them, in a couple of weeks.  Not concerned there.  We have 15 with the Blue Jays, who we played to a 2-2 draw in Toronto with Santander and Akin out due to lack of vaccination, which no longer is an issue.  We have 11 with Boston, who we’ve beaten 5 out of 8.   So really, the AL East games don’t intimidate me.   

So what does worry me?  Not too crazy about playing Houston 7 times.   Not to crazy about the fact that Seattle, Cleveland and Chicago largely play a bunch of powder puffs the rest of the year.  (We do play CLE and CWS three times each.). 

But we are past the point where we need to feel we are likely to lose to WC contenders.   We ARE a WC contender and can stand toe-to-toe with these teams.  

 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 hours ago, spleen1015 said:

I think you have it just about right. I don't think we have the horses to get us to the 90+ wins it is going to take to make the playoffs.

If we play .500 ball during this stretch, it will be above my expectations.

I don't see the starting pitching being good enough to go on the type of a run to win 90 games. Also the offense is missing a superstar bat that carries the lineup. Adley can get there, but he's not there yet. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I don't see the starting pitching being good enough to go on the type of a run to win 90 games. Also the offense is missing a superstar bat that carries the lineup. Adley can get there, but he's not there yet. 

So who was the ace starting pitcher and superstar bat when we won 93 games in 2012 and went 38-19 in the final 57 games?

Honestly I’d be surprised if the team won 90, but stranger things have happened.  The team has played .585 baseball since Adley’s call-up.   If that keeps up the O’s would finish at 87 wins.