Jud Fabian 2022

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Word I got was they wanted him to swing more aggressively to drive in runs. They pressed him to do that. The UF staff has some strange practices these days. Many talented kids regressed there the past 2-3 years. 

What a bunch of morons.

[Frobby]

Fabian could be a steal.   

[RZNJ]

Beavers, Fabian, Carter Young.  They were supposed to be high upside projects.   They aren’t looking like projects so far.   College stats can be misleading.   Both ways.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fabian could be a steal.   

It’s very obvious the Os have really wanted this guy.  They obviously saw something in him.

[Aglets]

32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s very obvious the Os have really wanted this guy.  They obviously saw something in him.

This is the guy that turned down the Red Sox and waited another year for us (allegedly)?   I wonder if it was just as simple as he thought he would go higher in the draft in '22.

[Alasdaire]

I was surprised that we got Fabian where we did at number 67. The worst you can say about his 2022 season is that he basically stagnated compared to 2021 when he went 40th overall. And he was arguably in the top 15 prospects going into the 2021 season.

But since I heard him post-draft personally talk about how he wanted to go to Baltimore all along, I’ve begun to wonder if other teams got the memo that he had a preferred landing spot and passed on him in 2022 for that reason alone. I really can’t see why the O’s would’ve taken Wagner at 42 over Fabian unless they knew that other teams had been scared off, since the word was they clearly wanted Fabian at 41 in 2021 before the Red Sox took him.

High hopes for Jud.

[oh-wee-ohs]

I hope at some point he tells us exactly why he wanted to be here. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, oh-wee-ohs said:

I hope at some point he tells us exactly why he wanted to be here. 

Sure after he wins ROY in 2024.

[RZNJ]

The guy hit .239 in 2021 and .249 in 2022 and struck out at a high rate. That’s why teams passed on him and even why the Orioles waited until 67.  If the Red Sox offered him 3M last year he’d be a Red Sox.

As good as he looks, Beavers might be better.   He’s a full year younger than Fabian and doing pretty well himself.  So far so good.   On paper, Wagner looked like the best hitter of the three.   Still might be.

[brvn52]

9 hours ago, Aglets said:

This is the guy that turned down the Red Sox and waited another year for us (allegedly)?   I wonder if it was just as simple as he thought he would go higher in the draft in '22.

O’s supposedly offered him $3M (slot: $1.81M) but he got snatched up 1 pick earlier. Red Sox (who he apparently hadn’t talked with) couldn’t come to a deal with him (I presume they offered slot). I’m guessing he thought he could make more a year later (he didn’t), the O’s wanted him, got him, and the story that he just always wanted to be an O sounds nice. 

[Alasdaire]

37 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The guy hit .239 in 2021 and .249 in 2022 and struck out at a high rate. That’s why teams passed on him and even why the Orioles waited until 67.  If the Red Sox offered him 3M last year he’d be a Red Sox.

As good as he looks, Beavers might be better.   He’s a full year younger than Fabian and doing pretty well himself.  So far so good.   On paper, Wagner looked like the best hitter of the three.   Still might be.

Sure, the batting average was low, but Fabian's OPS in the SEC was still above 1.000 in 2022.

He has an incredible amount of raw talent. He was an elite recruit coming out of high school, and then at 18/19 he performed really well in Cape Cod and was posting an OPS above 1.000 back in Florida before covid ended the 2020 season.

I think he just hit a wall at Florida where there was no room for improvement left. And the coaching staff was doing him no favors by telling him to swing for the fences. The Athletic did a piece on him before this year's draft, and he was really committed to cutting the strikeout rate after 2021, but what that looks like as a college kid is taking swings in your parents' attic and having your dad giving you scouting reports.

Even still, Fangraphs, Keith Law etc. still gave him a first-round grade this year. He is way better than 67th overall imo, and again, I don't know how the Orioles had the cojones to take Wagner over him unless they had confidence Fabian would be there later anyway because other teams were scared he wouldn't sign if it wasn't with the O's. Just speculation, but it's curious.

If the Orioles' hitting development is as good as we hope it has become, this kid could really blow up.

[RZNJ]

I agree that he's a talent.  I believe he hit under .200 this year in conference play.  There were huge questions about him pre draft both years.  To me, he looks to have elite bat speed and a really nice swing.  I did see him have some trouble with well located breaking pitches last night but that's normal for almost everyone. 

[PeteCanes]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What a bunch of morons.

Famously dumb

[Jammer7]

11 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

What a bunch of morons.

It’s been sad to watch. I know some of the kids, and none of them make excuses. But they used to be a cutting edge team, and kids wanted to play for the hometown team. Some were supposed to first round talent and just disappeared over the past few years. Armstrong and Calilao, in particular, were studs with first round tools. I watched them grow up over the years, and scouts’ praise of their tools was effusive. They barely played the past two years. 

To be fair, HS and college coaches do not get paid to produce pro players. They get paid to win. I think it clear that both goals can be accomplished. Certain programs are still living in the 90’s. There are some players who will not even play HS ball anymore because of this vary thing. It leads to overuse of pitchers and coaches telling kids to change their swings or approaches. Both cases are very detrimental to a promising future for a kid. It’s the ugly side of the game for me. So many talented kids get thrown away. 

[Alasdaire]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I agree that he's a talent.  I believe he hit under .200 this year in conference play.  There were huge questions about him pre draft both years.  To me, he looks to have elite bat speed and a really nice swing.  I did see him have some trouble with well located breaking pitches last night but that's normal for almost everyone. 

If you go by this report, basically the only weakness in his game was that he couldn't hit high fastballs. Same report says that he did fine against breaking balls, destroyed changeups, and had the best eye in college baseball.

The inability to hit high heat is definitely an issue given that MLB pitchers have that rise and are increasingly being told to bombard the top part of the zone. But you would think that's something correctable given the O's emergence in developing hitters and Fabian's combination of natural talent and willingness to improve.