Getting Good Enough Going Forward

[Bemorewins]

Let me start by saying that I like many of you (my fellow O’s fans) I am disappointed about the outcome of this week’s series with Toronto. We fought hard and did our best to be gutsy and rely on guile and heart like we have all year, but it just wasn’t enough.

 

Having said that, one thing that stood out to me throughout this series is that the Blue Jays are simply better (right now). I see why they were World Series favorites going into the season… and heck if I’m being honest they still might get there (even with Guerrero having a somewhat down year).

 

I can’t really be mad at the outcome of this series or our now fading playoff hopes because our O’s have given their all. They have fought all they could and as we used to say growing up “they have left it all out on the field”. Our team has wildly exceeding all expectations (including that of the GM) and done better than anybody could have dreamed. If there was a ceiling for our current team, I would say we’ve reached the top of it.

 

Having stated that, I want to discuss with my fellow O’s fans how we can get good enough to give ourselves better odds of beating the Blue Jays going forward over the next couple of years (given that they are likely to be our chief competition in the division and probably for the pennant along with Hou & Sea)… I know Tampa is good and will continue to be and they will probably have 2 stud pitchers to deal with for the next few years plus the return of Wander Franco. But I look at them as a team who will always be good but, never be willing to do what it takes to be great (unless on those rare years where they catch lightening in a bottle like they did during the Pandemic season). Yes I know the Yanks are still in division but they have an old expensive roster that will only get older and more expensive after they pay Judge (who is their only offense). And I know there is still Boston but they are going to have to pay Bogaerts (or let him walk and get worse) and next year they will have to pay Devers (or let him walk and get worse), so they are kind of stuck in a quandary of paying big money to stay the same or loosing great players and starting over. I know they have a pretty decent farm system but it is no where near as good as ours. So for the next few years I’m not worried about them.

 

With all this said, when you line up Toronto’s talent, I’ve been pondering how do we put ourselves in a position to match “bullet for bullet”, so that we are not going into the season or the prospect of matching up with them in a post season series being at a disadvantage of having to hope that we can beat the odds and outperform expectations relative to talent? In essence, how can we tilt the scale of the odds to at least even but maybe even have the odds be slightly in our favor? 

 

We know Elias and Mejdal are heavy believers in odds and percentage playing. That’s why the correctly calculated IMO that this year wasn’t our year (given the talent we had and the make up of our roster). 

 

So, I’m wondering what would it take (beyond having hope) that next year we can enter into the conversation of being serious World Series contenders?

 

I believe that there are multiple paths and ways for us to get there (so I’m not an advocate of a singular superior approach). However I would say, that any path towards serious championship contention starts with our front office and ownership adopting this as their number #1 goal going forward. Which is to say, that the future MUST ALWAYS matter, but going forward from this offseason, it should no longer trump the present.

 

I wanted to start this thread to generate discussion regarding potential path(s) going forward that we can take in order to become serious World Series contenders.

[Frobby]

On 9/8/2022 at 9:51 AM, Bemorewins said:

Let me start by saying that I like many of you (my fellow O’s fans) I am disappointed about the outcome of this week’s series with Toronto. We fought hard and did our best to be gutsy and rely on guile and heart like we have all year, but it just wasn’t enough.

 

Having said that, one thing that stood out to me throughout this series is that the Blue Jays are simply better (right now). I see why they were World Series favorites going into the season… and heck if I’m being honest they still might get there (even with Guerrero having a somewhat down year).

 

I can’t really be mad at the outcome of this series or our now fading playoff hopes because our O’s have given their all. They have fought all they could and as we used to say growing up “they have left it all out on the field”. Our team has wildly exceeding all expectations (including that of the GM) and done better than anybody could have dreamed. If there was a ceiling for our current team, I would say we’ve reached the top of it.

 

Having stated that, I want to discuss with my fellow O’s fans how we can get good enough to give ourselves better odds of beating the Blue Jays going forward over the next couple of years (given that they are likely to be our chief competition in the division and probably for the pennant along with Hou & Sea)… I know Tampa is good and will continue to be and they will probably have 2 stud pitchers to deal with for the next few years plus the return of Wander Franco. But I look at them as a team who will always be good but, never be willing to do what it takes to be great (unless on those rare years where they catch lightening in a bottle like they did during the Pandemic season). Yes I know the Yanks are still in division but they have an old expensive roster that will only get older and more expensive after they pay Judge (who is their only offense). And I know there is still Boston but they are going to have to pay Bogaerts (or let him walk and get worse) and next year they will have to pay Devers (or let him walk and get worse), so they are kind of stuck in a quandary of paying big money to stay the same or loosing great players and starting over. I know they have a pretty decent farm system but it is no where near as good as ours. So for the next few years I’m not worried about them.

 

With all this said, when you line up Toronto’s talent, I’ve been pondering how do we put ourselves in a position to match “bullet for bullet”, so that we are not going into the season or the prospect of matching up with them in a post season series being at a disadvantage of having to hope that we can beat the odds and outperform expectations relative to talent? In essence, how can we tilt the scale of the odds to at least even but maybe even have the odds be slightly in our favor? 

 

We know Elias and Mejdal are heavy believers in odds and percentage playing. That’s why the correctly calculated IMO that this year wasn’t our year (given the talent we had and the make up of our roster). 

 

So, I’m wondering what would it take (beyond having hope) that next year we can enter into the conversation of being serious World Series contenders?

 

I believe that there are multiple paths and ways for us to get there (so I’m not an advocate of a singular superior approach). However I would say, that any path towards serious championship contention starts with our front office and ownership adopting this as their number #1 goal going forward. Which is to say, that the future MUST ALWAYS matter, but going forward from this offseason, it should no longer trump the present.

 

I wanted to start this thread to generate discussion regarding potential path(s) going forward that we can take in order to become serious World Series contenders.

I’m quoting your post in full because it was hard to read for some reason, but the quote function makes it easier.   

It’s a little hard to answer your question because we are a young team and I don’t know how good some of our young players can become.  But my offhand reaction is that we need a couple of top-end players - one top of rotation pitcher, one middle of the order hitter, one more solid reliever.   

This team feels a little bit like the 1965 Orioles - good young team, but they need their Frank Robinson.  Odor has been a good leader considering his limited playing ability, but we need a guy who can show the young guys how the true stars do it.  But maybe a Ken Singleton would be enough.   

I’m very confident that Grayson Rodriguez, if healthy, will be a TOR starter, but we need another one.  I’m not counting on Hall, though that could still happen.  There’s nobody else on the horizon so we need to get someone.  


 

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m quoting your post in full because it was hard to read for some reason, but the quote function makes it easier.   

It’s a little hard to answer your question because we are a young team and I don’t know how good some of our young players can become.  But my offhand reaction is that we need a couple of top-end players - one top of rotation pitcher, one middle of the order hitter, one more solid reliever.   

This team feels a little bit like the 1965 Orioles - good young team, but they need their Frank Robinson.  Odor has been a good leader considering his limited playing ability, but we need a guy who can show the young guys how the true stars do it.  But maybe a Ken Singleton would be enough.   

I’m very confident that Grayson Rodriguez, if healthy, will be a TOR starter, but we need another one.  I’m not counting on Hall, though that could still happen.  There’s nobody else on the horizon so we need to get someone.  


 

I don’t know.  Ken Singleton may be enough… but he is 75. 

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m quoting your post in full because it was hard to read for some reason, but the quote function makes it easier.   

It’s a little hard to answer your question because we are a young team and I don’t know how good some of our young players can become.  But my offhand reaction is that we need a couple of top-end players - one top of rotation pitcher, one middle of the order hitter, one more solid reliever.   

This team feels a little bit like the 1965 Orioles - good young team, but they need their Frank Robinson.  Odor has been a good leader considering his limited playing ability, but we need a guy who can show the young guys how the true stars do it.  But maybe a Ken Singleton would be enough.   

I’m very confident that Grayson Rodriguez, if healthy, will be a TOR starter, but we need another one.  I’m not counting on Hall, though that could still happen.  There’s nobody else on the horizon so we need to get someone.  


 

Sorry about the weird font (darkened color). I’m not sure what happened there. I’m new to posting.

But as far as your points go regarding the pieces the O’s need, I agree for the most part. I’m not sure if they will be able/willing to spend what it would take to satisfy all 3.

But if they had to prioritize, I hope it is in that order - 1. TOR started (a real one that can compete and go pitch for pitch with the best in the AL). Thus allowing Grayson to begging his career in the #2 spot. 2. The need a middle of the order hitter if possible. Someone to slot somewhere in the #4- #6 hole. Honestly I like Mullins, Adley, Gunnar, and Santander for next year. And I think Mountcastle is passable in the #6 spot on a championship team. But he is way too hot/cold inconsistent to hit in the middle of the order in the #4 slot on a championship contender. 3. I think I agree that we need another bullpen piece. But Elias has been successful this year with the basement bargain approach to building a bullpen. Maybe he can find another 7th or 8th inning guy?

And as far as Frank Robinson goes, he was little before my time. I was born in ‘80. But I remember when Raphael Palmeiro came here as an FA similar was said about him being a piece that would put us over the top. And it never quite worked out that way.

[wildcard]

 Frank Robinson may be a once in a life time acquisition.  The O's tried it again with Glenn Davis and that certainly did not work.

Rosenthal said get a 2nd baseman which is way off IMO.  The O's have Ortiz and Westburg coming some time next season and it does not make sense to spend big on a free agent 2B IMO.

As far as the starter goes, Elias has to look at what Lyles offers for 11m and see if he wants to take the risk of not picking up his option and trying to sign a FA starter.  I think the rest of the rotation is in good hands with Grayson, Kremer, Wells, Bradish and Voth.

Need a better offensive backup catcher without losing too much on defense.

[Gurgi]

For next year I think getting another Lyles type  and keeping Lyles himself.  We need to figure out what we have in Greyson and see if Means bounces back.   We might have enough pitching.   

We probably need one real steady 3-4 type masher.   Other than that I would go with the kids.  See what they can do.  I expect Mountcastle to bounce back some.   Hays I do not expect much from.   Santander should be dropped to 6th in the order and used more as DH.   

I can see Gunnar and Adley being much much more impactful next year.   I think Gunnar might be the next Ripken type.   We could see a 25 homerun season with 15-20 stolen bases from him next year.  

So one decent starter and one solid hitter and let the rest ride.  Make some trades on the edges.  

[Bahama O's Fan]

The good thing about getting a hitter is I think we can pick one up and just about any position besides catcher and we can shuffle the rest of our players around him. Alot of our players have flexibility to play multiple positions.

[Moose Milligan]

Top of the rotation starter, a big bat for the middle of the lineup. Maybe a couple bullpen pieces.

Elias says he’s going to spend money this off-season, I have my reservations about that. I’m sure he’d LIKE to spend money but I believe he’s not going to spend just to spend. It’ll all have to make sense. And if he doesn’t see anything he likes, I believe he won’t spend.  
 

Which will cause a meltdown around here. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Top of the rotation starter, a big bat for the middle of the lineup. Maybe a couple bullpen pieces.

Elias says he’s going to spend money this off-season, I have my reservations about that. I’m sure he’d LIKE to spend money but I believe he’s not going to spend just to spend. It’ll all have to make sense. And if he doesn’t see anything he likes, I believe he won’t spend.  
 

Which will cause a meltdown around here. 

I think there’s little doubt he’ll spend money.  But some people may have unrealistic expectations as to how much.  We will probably still have a below average payroll next year.  We just won’t be off the charts low.  

[Aristotelian]

A TOR SP, veteran bullpen arm, and backup C. SP could come via trade.

[Aristotelian]

36 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Top of the rotation starter, a big bat for the middle of the lineup. Maybe a couple bullpen pieces.

Elias says he’s going to spend money this off-season, I have my reservations about that. I’m sure he’d LIKE to spend money but I believe he’s not going to spend just to spend. It’ll all have to make sense. And if he doesn’t see anything he likes, I believe he won’t spend.  
 

Which will cause a meltdown around here. 

I'm not too concerned about the bat. If we replace Odor from within and move Mateo to utility that will give us a nice balanced lineup. Mullins CF, Adley C, Santander DH, Gunnar SS, Urias 3B, Westburg/Vavra/Mateo 2B, Mountcastle 1B, Hays LF, Stowers RF. If Hays is our worst hitter that is a solid lineup, plus he can be replaced by Cowser , possibly Haskin. We could also trade for a bat at the deadline if Hays never figures out how to hit again.

[interloper]

Have to improve on Hays. I don't know if Stowers is the answer. 

[Frobby]

On 9/10/2022 at 8:31 AM, Frobby said:

 

This team feels a little bit like the 1965 Orioles - good young team, but they need their Frank Robinson.  Odor has been a good leader considering his limited playing ability, but we need a guy who can show the young guys how the true stars do it.  But maybe a Ken Singleton would be enough.   
 

I’d forgotten just how good Singleton was.   He was about the same level as George Springer is today.   Like Springer, Singleton had a career OPS+ of 132 (135 as an Oriole).  Singleton ended his career at 41.2 rWAR; Springer is at 33.5 in his age 32 season.

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Have to improve on Hays. I don't know if Stowers is the answer. 

Perhaps Hays will improve upon Hays.  Players have a way of doing that.   He's cheap enough and his value is down. I'd bring him back and hope for a bounceback.  His career could be at a bit of a crossroads.  He's close to becoming a 4th OF type that bounces around the league but we've also seen the ability to be an .800 OPS solid starting OF.  He needs to figure some things out this winter.

[Jammer7]

7 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I'm not too concerned about the bat. If we replace Odor from within and move Mateo to utility that will give us a nice balanced lineup. Mullins CF, Adley C, Santander DH, Gunnar SS, Urias 3B, Westburg/Vavra/Mateo 2B, Mountcastle 1B, Hays LF, Stowers RF. If Hays is our worst hitter that is a solid lineup, plus he can be replaced by Cowser , possibly Haskin. We could also trade for a bat at the deadline if Hays never figures out how to hit again.

The only thing I strongly disagree with is Mateo to a UT role. If you want to replace one of the top 5 defensive SS’s in the league, fine, trade him. He is the type of hitter that needs everyday type reps. If he doesn’t play everyday, he’ll lose value as his somewhat limited output will decline. Some guys are just don’t like it. Whether it’s ego or whatever, I believe he thinks he is a SS and it matters to him. 

Ortiz might be the SS, if they move Mateo, with Gunnar at 3B. Westburg and Urias can battle for 2B or a UT role. Maybe they bring in a Trey Turner or someone like that to play 2B. Vavra has not shown any MLB defensive ability yet for me. Maybe it’s there and he needs to develop it more. IDK. 

Stowers has to get stronger. He looks lost in the box a lot. He has a big learning curve ahead, I think. I love Hays’ game, but if he cannot get past the pull happy dive-in mode he has adopted, he is not a long term dude for me. I like the direction Santander and Ced are heading.