Breakout player predictions for 2023

[oriole]

Mountcastle would be a good one. He’s followed up a solid rookie season with quite a sophomore slump. If he could start hitting like an actual middle of the order bat then that would be considered a break out.

Bradish is another good one…really solid in the minors, struggled in his first taste at the majors. After an injury, he is showing he can be better. Even if he just continued that level into 2023, I’d consider that a breakout.

Lastly, DL Hall. I think a taste of major league hitters can hopefully play a role in having him figure some things out. We’ve all had high hopes of a middle or even top of the rotation kind of guy. But even if he stays in the bullpen and can be a shut down reliever, I’d call that a breakout from what he’s been doing this year. 

[NCRaven]

Since they haven’t been mentioned, Jordan Westburg and Joey Ortiz.  Not at Adley or Gunnar levels, but enough to show that they’ll be valuable contributors.

[jamalshw]

I will predict with my heart and my head. 

My heart prediction is Mountcastle. I want him to look more like what he did in the SSS in 2020. He showed that's there, but--again--SSS. I think with the continued influx of young talent, he's another mediocre season like this one away from getting pushed out. The pressure will be on. I would love to see him deliver as I think he has some of the best pop of the guys currently on the team. 

My head prediction is either Bradish or Hall. I like what we've seen from Bradish of late and hope he can build off it. As for Hall, the stuff is there, but I think he may ultimately stay in a relief role and if he does and embraces it, he could become a dominant force. 

[RZNJ]

I went with Ryan McKenna for 2022.   I wouldn't call that a breakout.

I'm going with Joey Ortiz to nail down a starting spot and run with it.

For a longer shot I'm going with Brett Phillips 2.0.    

[ShoelesJoe]

If a breakout happens it won’t be till the end of 2023, but I’m predicting Seth Johnson will be a stud at the big league level. 

[jdwilde1]

For me, its Ryan Mountcastle.  His offensive production has been disappointing this year (.727 OPS, 103 OPS+), but his Statcast numbers indicate that he should have had a significantly better season.  Just consider the following MLB percentile rankings:

Avg Exit Velocity - 87%

Hard Hit% - 83%

xwOBA - 93%

xBA - 89%

xSLG - 97% (this is not a typo - he's ninth in all of MLB, above players like Devers and Goldschmidt)

Barrel% - 95%

In addition, Mountcastle's defense appears to have improved with the additional playing time at first base (+3 Rfielding this season), and I expect his defense to hold or improve as he gains experience. 

He continues to be held back by a chase rate in the bottom 10% (38.8% in 2022), but even if that does not improve he can put together a significantly better season in 2023.  If he can make some improvement in his chase rate, which something that should occur now that he is approaching 1,500 career PAs,  he could be a top 10 first baseman in 2023.

Ryan Mountcastle Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | MLB.com | baseballsavant.com

[sportsfan8703]

Two I haven’t seen mentioned,

Mateo just putting it all together and going 30/30. 
 

Mr. Brett Philips putting up a 2-3 WAR season. 

[emmett16]

I’m going Grayson.  If anyone has the skill set to come up and dominate day 1 it’s him.  I think he takes a few lumps early and then looks elite for majority of the season.  

[OriolesMagic83]

6 hours ago, emmett16 said:

I’m going Grayson.  If anyone has the skill set to come up and dominate day 1 it’s him.  I think he takes a few lumps early and then looks elite for majority of the season.  

Can an O's pitcher come up and dominate for once in my adult lifetime?  Ok, maybe Mussina counts as one. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Mateo

[Frobby]

On 9/22/2022 at 11:02 AM, sportsfan8703 said:

 

Mateo just putting it all together and going 30/30. 

I was thinking about Mateo this morning.  Someone mentioned that the O’s had their best stretch of the year when Mateo was hot, and that’s absolutely true.  Mateo had a 55 game stretch where he posted an .832 OPS from late June to late August, and the team went 35-20 during that stretch.  He went into a deep slump beginning the final two games of August through the end of the season, and the team was well under .500 during that period.  

It’s really a mystery to me how Mateo went from terrible to excellent to terrible again over the course of the season. He looked like a completely different hitter with a completely different approach during his hot spell, then a switch flipped and he went right back to what he’d been before the hot streak.  You’ll sometimes see that with a guy who gets hot for 2-3 weeks, but it’s pretty unusual to see a guy get hot for 55 games and then be that terrible thereafter.  

Anyway, I don’t know if he’s the most likely candidate for a breakout, but he’s the one who has the most room for a breakout considering how poor his overall numbers were, and a breakout by him would be extremely impactful for the team.  

And at the same time, if he hits like he did for 2/3 of the season without the hot streak, he could find himself off the roster.   

I think I could almost say that Mateo’s performance could be the key to the entire season for the O’s, good or bad.  



 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Frobby

[sportsfan8703]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I was thinking about Mateo this morning.  Someone mentioned that the O’s had their best stretch of the year when Mateo was hot, and that’s absolutely true.  Mateo had a 55 game stretch where he posted an .832 OPS from late June to late August, and the team went 35-20 during that stretch.  He went into a deep slump beginning the final two games of August through the end of the season, and the team was well under .500 during that period.  

It’s really a mystery to me how Mateo went from terrible to excellent to terrible again over the course of the season. He looked like a completely different hitter with a completely different approach during his hot spell, then a switch flipped and he went right back to what he’d been before the hot streak.  You’ll sometimes see that with a guy who gets hot for 2-3 weeks, but it’s pretty unusual to see a guy get hot for 55 games and then be that terrible thereafter.  

Anyway, I don’t know if he’s the most likely candidate for a breakout, but he’s the one who has the most room for a breakout considering how poor his overall numbers were, and a breakout by him would be extremely impactful for the team.  

And at the same time, if he hits like he did for 2/3 of the season without the hot streak, he could find himself off the roster.   

I think I could almost say that Mateo’s performance could be the key to the entire season for the O’s, good or bad.  



 

Yeah I was thinking about this too. We could trade him away and he becomes Alfonso Soriano with GG defense at SS. He looked like a monster in that 55 game stretch. 
 

He had his OPS up to .695 after that wild BOS series on 8/21. Then we faced nothing but top level SP the next 10 games versus CWS, HOU, and Clev. That cooled him down real quick. 
 

Unbalanced schedule this year. So he gets to avoid those extra games versus all of the TOR SP in the AL East. No shift. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think I could almost say that Mateo’s performance could be the key to the entire season for the O’s, good or bad.  
 

Mmm, I hear you but I'm going to respectfully disagree here. I think because guys like Westburg and Ortiz are on the doorstep this year, and Gunnar is an option at SS, that Mateo flaming out would have less of an impact than it did last year when he went cold. 

An infield featuring Gunnar at SS, gold-glove Urias at 3B, and dependable Frazier at 2B should at least be good defensively, and honestly probably better offensively than with Mateo in there. Especially against righties. 

Then you factor in the prospect reinforcements and you're looking pretty solid. What you miss is Mateo's speed. 

[Roll Tide]

Gibson or Frazier

[24fps]

Lewin Diaz after spending the first half of the season in AAA getting help in figuring out the ML transition.