Mountcastle and Hayes

[Etch]

Just wondering what everyone thinks are the futures of these two. Are they on the team next year? Probably so. But for how long? Please inform.

[Aristotelian]

There was a Marlins fan on here this week who agreed to Pablo Lopez for Hays and Westburg. I'd have to consider that if offered. Of course the likelihood of any specific trade actually coming to fruition is usually extremely low, especially in the off season when everybody is a contender.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

They can be players on a pennant winning team, but preferably you want them batting between sixth and ninth in the lineup with their poor plate discipline.

It would be nice if they were hitting better, but Mountcastle and Hays should not be hitting in the middle of the lineup like they have for most of this season. 

[jdwilde1]

I think Mountcastle will have significantly improved numbers next year.  He has some elite Statcast batting metrics and his expected slugging and OPS are much higher than his actual stat-line.  Also, he’s still   only 25 and has under 1,500 major league plate appearances, so he should improve just from the added experience.

Hays has been the biggest disappointment for me this year.  I have always been pretty high on him if he could stay healthy, and he’s avoided the injured list this year.  However, I think he’s been playing hurt for most of the second half and should have went on the DL (or is it IL now?).  Although its pure speculation, I suspect injuries have played a big part in his second half nose-dive. Part of that may be that he’s just a streaky player, but he was hit in the wrist/hand several times over a month and a half.  Now, it looks like he has a rib or back injury.  On top of that, his sprint speed has declined at a greater rate than would be expected for his age. It’s like he’s 35 instead of 27.

So, I am hoping for a better season next year, but I am not holding my breath. I just don’t have confidence that he’s ever going to stay healthy enough to be counted on for a full season.

[baltfan]

Hays is a slightly better Reimold

[RZNJ]

Value is down on both.  I don’t think it hurts us to go into next season hoping for rebound seasons for both.  I agree that we need to create a lineup which puts these guys lower in the lineup.  They are always going to be hackers.

[Hallas]

Mountcastle's statcast metrics are eye popping.  You have to give him at least one more season to see if he got unlucky this year.

 

Hays I'm pretty down on.  I'd be okay with his bat if he were providing above average defense, but the way his sprint speed (and subsequently his outfield range) has taken a nose dive I'm looking to upgrade production from his position.  He has gotten hurt a bunch and I think it's taken a toll.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Hallas

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

They can be players on a pennant winning team, but preferably you want them batting between sixth and ninth in the lineup with their poor plate discipline.

It would be nice if they were hitting better, but Mountcastle and Hays should not be hitting in the middle of the lineup like they have for most of this season. 

I think it's easier to carry Mateo at SS w/ his elite defense than keeping both Mountcastle and Hays.  It will be hard to improve the offense much while keeping both those guys.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Mountcastle's statcast metrics are eye popping.  You have to give him at least one more season to see if he got unlucky this year.

 

Hays I'm pretty down on.  I'd be okay with his bat if he were providing above average defense, but the way his sprint speed (and subsequently his outfield range) has taken a nose dive I'm looking to upgrade production from his position.  He has gotten hurt a bunch and I think it's taken a toll.

I’m not too down on either.  As to Mountcastle, his lack of discipline has always bothered me, and I’ve never been as high on him as many others.  But he absolutely has hit into some terrible luck this year.  .313 wOBA, .362 xwOBA.  And just watching the games, he’s been hitting the ball hard to all fields and getting very little reward.  He’s a strong candidate to have a better season next year.  

I can’t say that about Hays.  He’s had his ups and downs, but at the end of the day, he’s had more or less the same season two years in a row, just with a different ordering of the hot and cold parts.  He may be better next year but I’d say that’s a 50/50 shot.  But he still has decent value as he is over 162 games (regardless of his poor second half).  
 

[jabba72]

Looking at statcast Mountcastle is 8th in MLB in brls/PA at 10.3, so he'll probably be back unless another team offers a decent SP for him, which could happen based on that statcast data. Hays is having rough year. His loss of speed really limits how many tools he has. Plus defense was a big part of Hays game. And now the wall is also taking away a third of his HR's. 

[Etch]

9 hours ago, Etch said:

Just wondering what everyone thinks are the futures of these two. Are they on the team next year? Probably so. But for how long? Please inform.

Thanks fellas. Great insights.

[Sports Guy]

I would move Mountcastle in the right deal and he’s not a guy I would pay Arb 3 and maybe not arb 2 money to.

That said, I’m not as eager to move him in a trade in the short term as I am other guys.  The aforementioned star cast numbers give me some hope.

You do wonder if the wall has gotten into the heads of any of these guys and if that is effecting them mentally at all.

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not too down on either.  As to Mountcastle, his lack of discipline has always bothered me, and I’ve never been as high on him as many others.  But he absolutely has hit into some terrible luck this year.  .313 wOBA, .362 xwOBA.  And just watching the games, he’s been hitting the ball hard to all fields and getting very little reward.  He’s a strong candidate to have a better season next year.  

I can’t say that about Hays.  He’s had his ups and downs, but at the end of the day, he’s had more or less the same season two years in a row, just with a different ordering of the hot and cold parts.  He may be better next year but I’d say that’s a 50/50 shot.  But he still has decent value as he is over 162 games (regardless of his poor second half).  
 

Elias/Hyde have to put Hays on the IL when he is hurt.   Which means they have to have replacement outfielders that don't cause a big drop-off in offensive and defensive production when Hays is on the IL.

[Ripken]

Agree with the theme here.  I've been following RM for so long it's killing me watching his struggles but the talent is there and he's having some bad luck.  His defense has improved.  He's only 25.  We have seen excellent stretches from him and it's clear the struggles are the times he chases out of the zone and/or gets pull happy.  Let's hope he works on pitch selection and using the entire field more.  I'd give him next year and see what happens unless we get a really good trade offer.  It's not like we have lots of 1B around, though certainly we have guys who can play there.  I agreed with moving the LF wall back but have hated the extreme change since it's inception.  He got screwed again last night.  That should really be a HR.

Hays is hurt but he always is.  He's almost two full years older than Mountcastle.  We have Stowers up and Cowser coming, to say nothing of some lower level OFs.  I'm ready to move on.  He'll have some good moments going forward somewhere else, like Yaz and others who have left, but he's not an important piece and with his defense and speed waning, he's not really a good 4th OF any more.

[MCO'sFan]

The wall has hurt Mountcastle and I think it is in his head at least a little. He crushed a ball a couple of weeks ago and it was caught at the wall on a really nice play. As he rounded 1B and saw the ball was caught you could read his lips and he said "I hate Baseball". Now that is really funny and a lot of guys say it in that situation but to me the wall has become a factor for him. If his power numbers are down due to the wall then he value to the O's is down too. His swing and miss has always been balanced by his power. I think he is on the team next year and with many of our top prospects LHH the we will need some RHH to balance out on the road. He has been very unlucky and I expect some improvement next year but will it be substantial? I have had high hopes for Hays since his big year in MiLB. I like the style of play but many projected him to be a 4th OF on a good team. I think that's what he is. 

Edited September 22, 2022 by MCO'sFan