Do we actually need a TOR starter?

[Aristotelian]

44 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I am shocked. Absolutely shocked.

I know! Did someone hack SG's account? Last I checked we needed two TOR starters.

I am of the opinion that pitching is one of the areas most in need of upgrade. We have Grayson coming to give us one TOR guy, but asking him to be a #1 Ace is a lot of pressure on a rookie. So, I would be on board with signing one TOR guy. We have the payroll flexibility to do so. I would like give Bradish and Kremer first crack at the rotation but don't have much confidence in them. Wells would probably be my #5 to open the season, but could move to bullpen when Means is ready. 

I don't think we need two starters as some have suggested. We have more than enough to fill a rotation with one, and we can make a trade if another is needed. I think Norby and Ortiz will be very appealing trade targets by July '23.

[Too Tall]

When Means returns enters into the equation too. I hope what ever the O's do, they spend wisely. I don't profess to know what that means (no pun intended), but 90 to 100 mil for two years of Verlander is not in my opinion wise for the Orioles. I think we need to add a good 2/3 starter and see what we have in GRod and Hall.  Plus this year has made believe in Elias & Co. mining up valuable pieces.

[RZNJ]

52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Verlander will get 2 or even 3 years.  

The worst case scenario is you get stuck with 3 years of bad contract.  I think that's the way to go.   Go for upside but limit the amount of risk.  You might get one or two good years from Verlander.  Doubtful you get three but you run more risk on a guy like Rodon (who I also like) who might command a 6 or 7 year contract.

[eddie83]

-Wells is now hurt. How bad who knows. 

-You don’t want a 2012 Strasburg situation with GRod. If I was running team I would limit him early on. 
 

-Kremer deserves a spot.
-Bradish looks good now.

-I don’t see how anyone can project Hall early on next year. 
 

-Means is a mid season bonus help. 
 

- Voth is more of a 6th man to me. Watkins is AAA depth. 
 

 

The thing is we don’t know how good Kremer and Bradish will be next year. 

[eddie83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Verlander will get 2 or even 3 years.  

I don’t know why he would want to leave Houston. Unless they low ball him. 

[Frobby]

I don’t think we “need” to go acquire an established TOR starter.  But having a couple of guys who pitch like one would be immensely helpful, and acquiring an established guy is the most likely way to do that (also the most expensive).   The other ways are (1) develop our own young guys into TOR starters, or (2) identify some other free agents or trade targets who don’t have TOR status but who we believe can jump to the next level with the help of our analytics and coaching staff.  I think all these options need to be on the table.  

I can see scenarios where we have 1-2 TORs and an above average rotation without acquiring anyone, but I don’t think we should count on that. 
 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t know..it’s a big question.  This wall and the down offenses are really potential game changers over the long haul.

Do you expect offense to be down again next year? I do not. I think the ball will start flying again. Add in the change in shifts and k's/weak contact that comes from more elite arms will gain in importance.

I do think the O's need to add several arms though. I don't think we have a pitching cavalry coming next year outside of Grayson and Means' return.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

I think the O's have been let down from the offense more than the pitching this season.

However, I don't think we can rely on the current staff to replicate this season.   I would probably prefer to go after one arm in trade, and one in FA, then supplement with guys currently on the roster.   I don't think an "ace" is necessary, but would certainly be a "nice to have".   Who knows, maybe Grayson becomes that guy?   

I like the idea of having capable starters that keep you in games, then having an excellent bullpen.  I think stockpiling guys in AA/AAA with one very good/excellent pitch and developing secondary pitches that are good is the way to go for relievers.   That seems to be one thing that Elias and his staff have done well.

Geayson can without doubt be as good as any TOR on any team.  A Mussina? Absolutely he can be.  And I think we will know as early as next year. 
 

If they can find another 2 or 3 .. great.  If not, get a veteran bat.  If neither, then get a better backup catcher lol 

 

 

[RZNJ]

I don't expect Grayson to be anything close to a TOR next year.   I expect growing pains.   I think you should expect him to pitch like a #5 starter.   Patience will be required.   But he'll certainly be good enough to keep us in most games and look special at times.

Edited September 23, 2022 by RZNJ

[MurphDogg]

It is a luxury and they can certainly hope to compete without signing one. But given the Orioles have a sub - $50 Million payroll next season, it is a luxury that the Orioles can very easily afford.

You can't win 85-ish games, lose nobody of significance in free agency and the roll back out with a sub-$50M payroll the following year. Don't spend money just to spend it, but they can afford to make a splash or two in free agency to supplement the core now that the window appears to be open.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

It is a luxury and they can certainly hope to compete without signing one. But given the Orioles have a sub - $50 Million payroll next season, it is a luxury that the Orioles can very easily afford.

You can't win 85-ish games, lose nobody of significance in free agency and the roll back out with a sub-$50M payroll the following year. Don't spend money just to spend it, but they can afford to make a splash or two in free agency to supplement the core now that the window appears to be open.

Agreed.   A big, risky contract to a #1 starter would not cripple this team if it doesn't work out.   It won't cost players.  Only money.  No one was complaining about the offense after last nights game.  In fact, they were so happy with the team of rookies that scored two runs and won the game (against a #1 starter btw!).  A #1 starter should be the #1 thing on the shopping list.

[wildcard]

I'll wait till the end of the season.  Add 30 innings to each of the starters.  Project their ERA based on how they progressed this season.  Figure in some injuries.   Then see what I think the O's should do.

[jdwilde1]

The thing to keep in mind is the that a top of the rotation starter is really replacing the team’s fifth starter since that’s who will be moved to the pen.  Also, it strengthens your bullpen too. For example, having Voth or Wells bumped makes the pen stronger.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Do you expect offense to be down again next year? I do not. I think the ball will start flying again. Add in the change in shifts and k's/weak contact that comes from more elite arms will gain in importance.

I do think the O's need to add several arms though. I don't think we have a pitching cavalry coming next year outside of Grayson and Means' return.

Well this is part of the equation.  Is MLB using the humidor next year?

If so, I would expect similar results.

[Pickles]

To answer the OP's question: No, we don't need a TOR.  

However, we NEED to replace the innings Lyles threw for us this year, and it would be nice to upgrade the quality of those innings at the same time.  But his 170 innings are 60 more than anybody else has thrown for us this year.

If they deny his option, then they better have a plan for those innings.