The Core/Keepers

[Sports Guy]

29 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I'm surprised to hear this from you.  I assume you're inferring how the FO feels?

Nope.  He’s a 3+ WAR guy.  That doesn’t grow on trees.  I may want to trade him and I have my doubts about where he will be in 2-3 years (which is why I want to trade him because I don’t want to extend him) but while he is here and entering next year, he is a core guy.

I would expect another 3-4 WAR season next year.  That’s not a role player imo.

I just  want him dealt a year too early as opposed to a year too late and think we can get good defense out there and make up the rest of the value in other areas of the team.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right. They might be here OD 2023 but a lot of those guys are not core players. 
 

GRod

Bautista

Henderson

Rutschman.

That’s the core.  No chance those guys are going anywhere.

+1, I am guessing no more than 50% of the other guys are around for multiple playoff runs. Even if they are, they might be 1-2 WAR guys which I wouldn't really consider "core" any more than, say, Brian Matusz. As far as guys with strong likelihood to be multiple WAR players on multiple playoff teams, I think yours is the list.

Of OPs list, some won't pan out, some will get traded, some will stick around but will be forgettable role players. A couple will end up being core but too early to say which. If I had to guess, Mullins, Cowser, maybe Kremer or Hall 

[oriole]

58 minutes ago, survivedc said:

I guess it depends on if you think this year or last year is the Real Mountcastle. Last year’s numbers have him as borderline top 10 at the position. I think he’ll be closer to last year and could pop higher year to year. Top 10 1B with elite Catcher and SS/3B and you’ve got a good foundation.

Small sample size in 2020 but it’s three years in a row where he’s gotten worse offensively. With that being said, I’m not saying he should be traded or anything. I don’t see anything wrong with giving him another year to come back. But he’d be more of a complimentary player unless best case scenario shakes out which isn’t what you want to say about a “core” player.

[spiritof66]

I'm a little confused about the debate over what it means to be part of the "core." For me, it's more useful to think about what players the Orioles think have the potential to be good enough to contribute to a contending team in 2024-26 (or thereabouts) and, as a result, are very likely not to be traded through at least the end of the 2023 season. I'd call the guys in that group keepers.

I think that's the guys in the OP plus Mullins and minus Mountcastle, Kremer, Bradish and Perez. 

There are a bunch of youngsters who are on that list on a provisional basis.  It's just too early to tell about Stowers and the guys who haven't yet made it to the major leagues. I agree with the OP (I think) that the Orioles believe each can contribute to that contending team, and they'll all get a chance to prove that. The result may be that they'll play themselves off the keeper list and will become ML filler or be traded or released, but that's not going to happen before or during next season for any of them.

I don't think anyone knows whether Kremer or Bradish will be good enough to be a contributor in the rotation for those contending teams, but because of the lack of starting pitching they're not going anywhere.

Finally, I had hoped that Mateo might play his way into the keeper category, and I think some felt the same way about Urias. The chances look real slim for both right now, but either both may hang around as a bench player.

[wildcard]

Mullins is a core player today.   And he will be for at least another year.   But after that he enters the zone that Santander is in right now.   Does Santander get traded this off season or does Elias wait until the 2023 deadline.  

Because after the 2023 deadline if he is not traded he becomes a rental player because he will be a free agent after 2024.   And if the O's do not plan to extend him for 3 to 5 years then he has to be traded while his value is high.

Just add a year to that for Mullins.  A lot of Mullins value is because of his speed.  Are the O's going to extend him  as he enters his 30's when his speed likely decreases.   Not if they have someone to replace him that is as good.   Right now I don't know who that is.

This season Mullins became a platoon player because he did not did lefties as well as McKenna.  Will that be true next season.  I don't have that answer.

So yes Mullins is a core player now and for the next year but the list in the OP is about building for a future.  And the players I don't think Elias will trade any time soon.   Even if some of them have not made the majors yet.

Elias has said he never wants to go through a rebuild again.  And he plans to do that from continually graduating quality talent  from the minors.  So the vast majority of these players will not be with he team more have 4 and a half years before they are traded to replenish the farm system.

There are no hard and fast rules here but in general I think that is the way Elias is designing it to work.  JMO

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I'm a little confused about the debate over what it means to be part of the "core." For me, it's more useful to think about what players the Orioles think have the potential to be good enough to contribute to a contending team in 2024-26 (or thereabouts) and, as a result, are very likely not to be traded through at least the end of the 2023 season. I'd call the guys in that group keepers.

I think that's the guys in the OP plus Mullins and minus Mountcastle, Kremer, Bradish and Perez. 

There are a bunch of youngsters who are on that list on a provisional basis.  It's just too early to tell about Stowers and the guys who haven't yet made it to the major leagues. I agree with the OP (I think) that the Orioles believe each can contribute to that contending team, and they'll all get a chance to prove that. The result may be that they'll play themselves off the keeper list and will become ML filler or be traded or released, but that's not going to happen before or during next season for any of them.

I don't think anyone knows whether Kremer or Bradish will be good enough to be a contributor in the rotation for those contending teams, but because of the lack of starting pitching they're not going anywhere.

Finally, I had hoped that Mateo might play his way into the keeper category, and I think some felt the same way about Urias. The chances look real slim for both right now, but either both may hang around as a bench player.

Good post.  Keepers or core players.  I am fine with either description.

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I disagree about Mountcastle .. I think he is not a core player and could be traded either in offseason or in 2023 ..he is more in Santander/Hays/Cedric category. 

I can't consider a player at a prime offensive position putting up a .724 OPS a core player.  I would be surprised if Elias doesn't have several players in the minors who he considers possible replacements for Mountcastle. 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right. They might be here OD 2023 but a lot of those guys are not core players. 
 

GRod

Bautista

Henderson

Rutschman.

That’s the core.  No chance those guys are going anywhere.

Yeah, that's it.  Not sure Gray Rod is even part of the core yet because he hasn't even pitched in the majors.  I'm not suggesting that Elias is looking to trade him unless he is part of a trade for another core player.

What was the core for the 2012-2016 Orioles.  I'm going to say it was Wieters and Jones.  I guess you could add Markakis.  The rest of the players came and went or just had a great season or 2 (Davis).  I think that was part of the problem with the 2012-2016 O's, was the core wasn't big enough and there wasn't any elite players in the core.  Did anyone regularly include Wieters, Jones and Markakis in the best players in baseball conversation. 

[wildcard]

Listening to your comments I made a few changes.   Now calling the list Core/Keepers. Added Mullins and Tyler Wells to the list.

I hear the comments on Mountcastle but this at his age (25) with  his development defensively.  At this point he just had a bad offensive year and is likely to improve.

[Yossarian]

If we're keeping Mountcastle, he had better improve his production at the plate.  We would need a lot more slugging out of he and Stowers, both.  I am hoping Rutschman hits with more power, too - especially from the right side of the plate. 

The league adjusted to Henderson pretty well and his last few weeks reallytalked off from that hot start.  He needs to make his adjustments, now.  He'll be okay. 

[terpoh]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah, that's it.  Not sure Gray Rod is even part of the core yet because he hasn't even pitched in the majors.  I'm not suggesting that Elias is looking to trade him unless he is part of a trade for another core player.

What was the core for the 2012-2016 Orioles.  I'm going to say it was Wieters and Jones.  I guess you could add Markakis.  The rest of the players came and went or just had a great season or 2 (Davis).  I think that was part of the problem with the 2012-2016 O's, was the core wasn't big enough and there wasn't any elite players in the core.  Did anyone regularly include Wieters, Jones and Markakis in the best players in baseball conversation. 

 

You are severly discounting a lot of players from that era. 

Jones, Markakis, Machado, Wieters, JJ Hardy, Davis, Britton, Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez were all core players to that special 5 year run.

Chris Davis hit 197 in the 5 seasons from 2012-2016

JJ Hardy won three gold golves during that time.

Zack Britton was a shut down reliever for 3 of those 5 years

Chris Tillman was in our rotation for all 5 of those years and was our defacto "Ace" during that time timeout question

Miguel Gonzalez was in our rotation for 4 of those years and very good for three of them

Markakis was only there 2012-2014 but is absolutely a core oriole

Manny Machado was a three time all star and 2 gold gloves during that time all while being one of the youngest and brightest up and coming stars in the game

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Yeah, that's it.  Not sure Gray Rod is even part of the core yet because he hasn't even pitched in the majors.  I'm not suggesting that Elias is looking to trade him unless he is part of a trade for another core player.

What was the core for the 2012-2016 Orioles.  I'm going to say it was Wieters and Jones.  I guess you could add Markakis.  The rest of the players came and went or just had a great season or 2 (Davis).  I think that was part of the problem with the 2012-2016 O's, was the core wasn't big enough and there wasn't any elite players in the core.  Did anyone regularly include Wieters, Jones and Markakis in the best players in baseball conversation. 

I would say Chris Davis and J.J. Hardy were part of the core on that team. That was a different team at a different stage.   

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, terpoh said:

 

You are severly discounting a lot of players from that era. 

Jones, Markakis, Machado, Wieters, JJ Hardy, Davis, Britton, Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez were all core players to that special 5 year run.

Chris Davis hit 197 in the 5 seasons from 2012-2016

JJ Hardy won three gold golves during that time.

Zack Britton was a shut down reliever for 3 of those 5 years

Chris Tillman was in our rotation for all 5 of those years and was our defacto "Ace" during that time timeout question

Miguel Gonzalez was in our rotation for 4 of those years and very good for three of them

Markakis was only there 2012-2014 but is absolutely a core oriole

Manny Machado was a three time all star and 2 gold gloves during that time all while being one of the youngest and brightest up and coming stars in the game

Don't forget Chen. Only strike against him is he was gone for 2016. Also O'Day was with us that whole run and almost as good as Britton.

I would also add Schoop. He missed 2012 but otherwise was mostly productive during that time and great chemistry with Manny.

Markakis is borderline in my mind. He was gone for '15-16 and was pretty meh in '13-'14. 

[OriolesMagic83]

2 hours ago, terpoh said:

 

You are severly discounting a lot of players from that era. 

Jones, Markakis, Machado, Wieters, JJ Hardy, Davis, Britton, Tillman, Miguel Gonzalez were all core players to that special 5 year run.

Chris Davis hit 197 in the 5 seasons from 2012-2016

JJ Hardy won three gold golves during that time.

Zack Britton was a shut down reliever for 3 of those 5 years

Chris Tillman was in our rotation for all 5 of those years and was our defacto "Ace" during that time timeout question

Miguel Gonzalez was in our rotation for 4 of those years and very good for three of them

Markakis was only there 2012-2014 but is absolutely a core oriole

Manny Machado was a three time all star and 2 gold gloves during that time all while being one of the youngest and brightest up and coming stars in the game

Missed Machado.  It was 1 am when I wrote that post.  Questionable if Tillman and Gonzalez were more core or complementary players. 

[waroriole]

13 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Right. They might be here OD 2023 but a lot of those guys are not core players. 
 

GRod

Bautista

Henderson

Rutschman.

That’s the core.  No chance those guys are going anywhere.

27 y/o rookie RP are core players?