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Your best guess for the starting infield next April


RZNJ

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1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

I think we've been over this.  Urias was a 3 WAR player at 3B mostly based on defense.   To assume he's going to be a 3 WAR player at 2B doesn't make sense to me.   Also, the Orioles didn't develop players like Ortiz and Westburg for nothing.   We need to find spots for those guys too.   If they can't be 3 WAR players or better than the system isn't as good as we think it is.

3 WAR is a pretty good player.  We have both seen enough of prospects than to guarantee two, no matter how highly rated, will be 3 WAR players.  Or at least I have.  If Urias' defense at second isn't good enough, then one of Westburg or Ortiz can supplant him soon enough, and then he will be the utility man, as one of them will be on Opening Day.

Edited by Pickles
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Everything except 2B seems pretty locked down and that one depends on which middle infielders weren’t traded and also does well in ST. Westburg feels like the obvious answer but a Vavra/Urias platoon would be okay. If Ortiz really is as good defensively as I keep hearing then that probably makes him worth more in a trade than it does to the O’s at 2B. 
 

If I had to guess as to which prospects are traded I would say Ortiz and Vavra. That leaves 2B between Westburg and Urias. Since both players also play SS and 3B then I could also see both of them making the roster. 

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I think Elias believes the value for Santander and Mateo will never be higher, and trades both of them. And Westburg gets plugged in somewhere in the infield, whether at SS or 2B. Now... who replaces Odor?

I wonder if Elias trades Mateo and makes a run at Correa. Henderson at 3B and Westburg at 2B. 

Not saying that's what he SHOULD do, just thinking that's what he MIGHT do. 

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It's not that Urias is bad, but if the 3 WAR at 3B was defense, I doubt he'll be a 3 WAR 2B. It's possible, I guess, but we picked the guy off the scrap heap, and it wouldn't shock me if someday soon he turned back into a pumpkin. Defense can be highly erratic year to year and it falls off a cliff fast. I'm not sure the bat is good enough for him to be a regular if that happens

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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because they don't think that level of production is repeatable?

In Urias’ case, he was worth 1.9 rWAR in 85 games in 2021, 3.6 rWAR in 118 games in 2022.   In essence, he’s already repeated it.  I believe he can repeat it, but what if we have someone better?  

I think the Mateo issue is similar, though he hasn’t performed in a season prior to this one.  I feel it’s pretty likely he could repeat his performance.   But what if we have someone better?

So that’s really it.  We know what Urias and Mateo are, more or less.  We don’t know what Westburg and Ortiz are.  The latter seem to have higher ceilings.  But are we going to forsake the birds in the hand for the ones in the bush?
 

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Assuming Gerrit Cole starts opening day, I got:

1B: Anthony Santander

2B: Ramon Urias

SS: Jorge Mateo

3B: Gunnar Henderson

I'd love to see some LH power at 1B, and Santander seems like the practical solution, given the free agent options listed on mlb.com.

 

 

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Other the Gunnar being in the infield I don't think there is a way to know who else will be there.   Elias is going to try to add a starter and a big bat.   Elias is willing to trade.    So without knowing what the other GMs wants its hard to say who will be in the infield.

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12 hours ago, Frobby said:

In Urias’ case, he was worth 1.9 rWAR in 85 games in 2021, 3.6 rWAR in 118 games in 2022.   In essence, he’s already repeated it.  I believe he can repeat it, but what if we have someone better?  

If Urias was worth 3.6 War in 118 games, I'd see if any team is interested in trading for a player who's "good for 5 WAR over 162 games, can play multiple positions, is in his prime, and inexpensive."

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36 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

If Urias was worth 3.6 War in 118 games, I'd see if any team is interested in trading for a player who's "good for 5 WAR over 162 games, can play multiple positions, is in his prime, and inexpensive."

5 WAR is All Star level.  I don't think any team is going to value Urias as an All Star 3B.  Maybe a team would consider Urias as a player who can hold down 3B cheaply for a couple of seasons.  If any team values Urias that highly, he should be traded. 

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My opinion:

1B: Mountcastle (don't want to spend and hope he rebounds)

2B: Westburg (top 100 guy who needs a home)

SS: Hendersson (needs to shine in his early days at his prime position

3B: Urias (the guy not traded, because he can fill in at 3B and 2B, and Westburg could slide to SS for Gunnar days off)

I'm going under the thought that Mateo is traded to maximize value.  The thing he excelled at, defense and SB, could disappear in a year.  But I think Urias's steadiness is likely to continue and his versatility is valued.

I also think Vavra will be backup 2B/3B unless someone his hurt and we would need Ortiz.

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22 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Is this because you value Mateo at short or because you don’t think Henderson can handle it?

It’s not what I want but I think it’s the easy move and I don’t think they will be ready to hand SS to Ortiz and I don’t think they will have a third baseman they prefer everyday than Henderson. 

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4 hours ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

1B Rizzo/Mountcastle

2B Vavra

SS Trea Turner

3B Gunnar

UTL Urias

This is the best FA SS class in quite some time. I think the upgrade substantially at 2 positions. 

Full disclosure, I don't think they do this but it seems like a provocative stance to take. Fire away!

 

I love the idea of going after Turner. He can always slide to 2B if needed down the road as our prospects (Holliday) come up. Between Vavra and Westburg I think 2B would be solid, and I think Urias works better as a slash utility guy. We really need whatever bat we sign to hit lefties well. The added bonus he puts extra speed back at the top/middle of the lineup. I plead Elias to put up the $$ for either Turner or Rodon. Its a big FA class and we need to capitalize while we can. Either one's contract would probably be over with or almost over with by the time Gunnar and Adley get expensive. 

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