Ryan Mountcastle Projections

[kidrock]

Question for the O's faithful here who know far more than I do.  Apologies if there are better stats to use:

 

In RM's first season, limited sample size of 140 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .878. 

In his second season, 586 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .796.

In his third season, 609 PAs, he puts up an OPS of .729.

 

The big change that happened during these years was the wall in left which impacts him more than others I would assume.  My questions are

1. Could anyone estimate the amount of OPS the wall cost him.

2. I have a hard time believing that it cost him the full delta between his .796 -> .729.  Is it possible that, despite the wall, RM is continually declining as he gets more PAs?

3. Based on his age, experience, tools and profile, do you project improvement, continual decline, or more of a plateau between .720-.740?

4. Does a first baseman who OPSs sub .750 have much value in the game today?  It's hard for me to, with my limited league wide knowledge to understand if the league has just declined offensively or if RM is slightly below average player.  I am assuming that he does not provide plus defense or base running.

Thanks

[Sports Guy]

He had a lot of bad Iuck last year.  In any given year, a player can just have a bad season, an unlucky season or a combo of the 2.

Im not the biggest RM fan but I do tend to believe he was more unlucky than bad last year.

The new wall definitely hurt him but he had some very good stat cast numbers.

I still believe, in most seasons, he’s a 780-820 OPS type of guy. 

Edited October 19, 2022 by Sports Guy

[kidrock]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had a lot of bad Iick last year.  In any given year, a player can just have a bad season, an unlucky season or a combo of the 2.

Im not the biggest RM fan but I do tend to believe he was more unlucky than bad last year.

The new wall definitely hurt him but he had some very good stat cast numbers.

I still believe, in most seasons, he’s a 780-820 OPS type of guy. 

SG - is it fair to say you are in between content and happy with RM at first?  Perhaps my opinion on him is just too negative.  I was able to watch alot of games during his rough stretch which seems to have soured me a bit.

[Hank Scorpio]

4 minutes ago, kidrock said:

SG - is it fair to say you are in between content and happy with RM at first?  Perhaps my opinion on him is just too negative.  I was able to watch alot of games during his rough stretch which seems to have soured me a bit.

He's a little Adam Jones-y, which is fine if you're a centerfielder, not so much a 1st baseman.

I also think his value is low, so they won't trade him this offseason.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, kidrock said:

SG - is it fair to say you are in between content and happy with RM at first?  Perhaps my opinion on him is just too negative.  I was able to watch alot of games during his rough stretch which seems to have soured me a bit.

I am fine with him while he is cheap. Talk to me when he’s not cheap anymore.

If they moved on from him, I would be ok with it. If you told Me you were penciling him in over there for the next few years, I would be ok with that too.

I would trade him now but I assume you are getting 60-70 cents on the dollar for him and I don’t see the sense in doing that.

[kidrock]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I am fine with him while he is cheap. Talk to me when he’s not cheap anymore.

If they moved on from him, I would be ok with it. If you told Me you were penciling him in over there for the next few years, I would be ok with that too.

I would trade him now but I assume you are getting 60-70 cents on the dollar for him and I don’t see the sense in doing that.

Fair point.  At 700k, he's fine.  Not sure anyone feels that way at 5m or 10m.

[jamalshw]

Some of the decline is also related to the hitting environment in general across the league, but even in OPS+ there's still been a constant decline from 137 to 114 to 105. That said, 2020 was just 35 games so 2021 was his real rookie year. A lot of players have sophomore slumps as the league adjusts. I'm fine with Mountcastle at 1B (at least for another year). I'd like to see what he does next year. If he's a 100ish OPS+ player again, that doesn't cut it at 1B and we need to move on. If he can rebound back to 114 it's okay...and beyond that is obviously better. 

[NCRaven]

If you believe in Statcast, Mountcastle has some of the best below the surface numbers on the Orioles.  

Avg Exit Velocity - 88, Max Exit Velocity - 81, HardHit% - 82, xwOBA - 93, xBA - 91, xSLG- 96, and Barrel % - 94 are all outstanding.  As Sports Guy points out, these percentiles indicates that Ryan likely hit into a lot of "bad luck" in 2022.  Admitedly, he strikes out a bit more than you would like and walks a bit less.  I think GM's that look at stats beyond the standard BA and the like would see a lot to like in Ryan Mountcastle.

Full disclosure, I am a big fan of Mountcastle.

[Hank Scorpio]

He's one of those guys that drives me crazy because he has the tools to be SO GOOD but he gets pull happy and spirals. 

[btdart20]

There's a thread somewhere that said Mountcastle lost 5-7 HR in OPACY this year (I forget which it was).  That would put his OPS in the .770-.800 range (assuming those 5-7 HR weren't singles/doubles).  

[kidrock]

39 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

If you believe in Statcast, Mountcastle has some of the best below the surface numbers on the Orioles.  

Avg Exit Velocity - 88, Max Exit Velocity - 81, HardHit% - 82, xwOBA - 93, xBA - 91, xSLG- 96, and Barrel % - 94 are all outstanding.  As Sports Guy points out, these percentiles indicates that Ryan likely hit into a lot of "bad luck" in 2022.  Admitedly, he strikes out a bit more than you would like and walks a bit less.  I think GM's that look at stats beyond the standard BA and the like would see a lot to like in Ryan Mountcastle.

Full disclosure, I am a big fan of Mountcastle.

Very interesting that his stat cast data is very positive.  Hopefully his luck turns around next year.  Thanks for the stats.

[Just Regular]

His 3-year OAA percentile track is 36-2-81.

If you are "just" a 110 OPS+ type bat, it'd help you extend your usefulness to get really good at fielding 1B.

Unlike many other positions, I feel almost no teenagers train for 1B so a player might get excellence there later after flunking out of everywhere else on the spectrum.  

It won't save you for 10 years or anything but could keep you around an extra year or two.

Agree with others good reason to hope he won't have to skate on ice that thin, but we'll see if the 125 OPS+ shows up.

HIs path to helping the Orioles as a championship-caliber team is the 125 OPS+ and the plus defense year in year out; without both I imagine we'll be looking around every offseason.

 

[kidrock]

41 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

There's a thread somewhere that said Mountcastle lost 5-7 HR in OPACY this year (I forget which it was).  That would put his OPS in the .770-.800 range (assuming those 5-7 HR weren't singles/doubles).  

Very cool, thanks

[InsideCoroner]

1 hour ago, Hank Scorpio said:

He's one of those guys that drives me crazy because he has the tools to be SO GOOD but he gets pull happy and spirals. 

My recollection of Mountcastle hitting well in his first season or so included what seemed like a lot of balls hit to right-center (which happened again a few times again at the very end of this year) and also some infield hits. It seemed like the infield hits were gone this season — not sure if he slowed down a step or two? — but he’s definitely pull happy when he’s struggling. 

I like Mountcastle but an not sure his bat plays well enough at DH/1B on a contending club. We need someone that can mash at those positions… especially if carrying defense-first guys like Mateo. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, btdart20 said:

There's a thread somewhere that said Mountcastle lost 5-7 HR in OPACY this year (I forget which it was).  That would put his OPS in the .770-.800 range (assuming those 5-7 HR weren't singles/doubles).  

It was 5.   If you assume all 5 became outs (unlikely and I think I recall at least one and maybe two that hit off the wall), that would be .781 OPS instead of .729.  Subtract 7 OPS points for each of the 5 balls that became a double rather than an out.   

Remember too that the league OPS was 30 points lower than last year.  So last year he was 65 points over league average, this year he was 28 points above average.  So, down 37 points against league average but the wall cost him somewhere between 18 and 52 points.  At the end of the day, his performance his year was very similar to last year when you account for change in league environment and the wall.