Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Wow, I would love to sell you a used car.  Sure, it's only worth 15k, but you are willing to pay me 18k for it, right?  Or maybe even 23k if the guy down the street is offering 15.5k?  There is nothing illogical with saying player X is worth it at Y dollars, but he isn't worth it at Y+3M more.  Few things are MORE logical than saying I'm only going to pay what something is worth, regardless of if Sports Guy goes on a rant against me.  

No, it’s a dumb argument.  And the car example is a poor analogy.

First of all, the most recent history says you are wrong about his worth. In fact, it says you aren’t even close to being correct.

Secondly, a few million over what he gets paid isn’t some terrible overpay, especially in the world of free agency.

So yea, this whole argument is poor. 
 

If you had some belief he wasn’t even going to be worth 15M or whatever, that makes sense. But to say he will be worth 19M but 22M would be some big overpay makes no sense.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Sports Guy

[emmett16]

At the end of the day, Abreu hit the jackpot.  He got paid fair market value(slightly above it would seem)to play for a winner in a climatized ball park that also happens to be an easy place to hit.  Astros got their guy, in hindsight even if we were interested we had no chance.  My take away is that bats are likely to be a little more expensive than people thought.  

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

No, it’s a dumb argument.  And the car example is a poor analogy.

First of all, the most recent history says you are wrong about his worth. In fact, it says you aren’t even close to being correct.

Secondly, a few million over what he gets paid isn’t some terrible overpay, especially in the world of free agency.

So yea, this whole argument is poor. 
 

If you had some belief he wasn’t even going to be worth 15M or whatever, that makes sense. But to say he will be worth 19M but 22M would be some big overpay makes no sense.

It's a perfect analogy. 

First of all, he's heading to the wrong side of 35.  History has shown us the decline is likely to be swift and brutal.  He could be a Cruz like exception, but that's not really a wager I'm willing to bet on.  Especially if I have to overpay to take that risk.

Second, a few millions is a ton of money.  Sure, we are so stupidly numb to the numbers being thrown around it sounds like a rounding error, but in real terms 3-4 million dollars a year is significant, not just money to be thrown away.

So yeah, your argument is poor.  I'm not sure he's worth 19M a year, at least not for all 3 years.  But there is a much greater chance he's worth 19M than him being worth 22M.  Even at 19M I think that's going to be a loser over the entire 3 years, but that's a more reasonable amount of risk and a better chance of at least breaking even over the terms of the contract versus 22-23M a year.  

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

To me he has very little value with a .305 OBP. That was a big problem this year with the majority of our team and the run differential 

The question in my mind is whether Mountcastle will improve with experience.  Steamer and Marcel both have him improving next year, in OBP (.316/.314) and otherwise.  Mancini had his worst season his second full year in the league, then his best season in his third full year.  So, you never really know.  

[RZNJ]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Did anyone say you take Mountcastle off the team?

You said the real question is how he compares to who the Orioles put over there. I assumed you meant 1B.

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You said the real question is how he compares to who the Orioles put over there. I assumed you meant 1B.

No, I mean the Orioles have said they are targeting first base/DH and CO.  They want 2 bats.

One of those 2 bats will presumably be a DH/1st bass guy.

[Sports Guy]

50 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The question in my mind is whether Mountcastle will improve with experience.  Steamer and Marcel both have him improving next year, in OBP (.316/.314) and otherwise.  Mancini had his worst season his second full year in the league, then his best season in his third full year.  So, you never really know.  

Let’s not forget how much bad luck Mountcastle hit into in 2022.  In expecting a bounce back and I’m not even a huge Mountcastle believer.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s not forget how much bad luck Mountcastle hit into in 2022.  In expecting a bounce back and I’m not even a huge Mountcastle believer.

My only reservation is that I don’t think the “x” stats take ballpark dimensions into account.  However, even assuming I’m right, it seems unlikely that the gap between his expected and actual numbers would remain that large.  

Really though, I’m just hoping that Mountcastle is able to improve his approach on a more consistent basis.  
 

[emmett16]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s not forget how much bad luck Mountcastle hit into in 2022.  In expecting a bounce back and I’m not even a huge Mountcastle believer.

All of his projections are super tight and not abysmal.  .309 to .316OBP & .752-792OPS  I feel like with two years under his belt and his underlying hit data those numbers could realistically be a floor for him.  If he has another gear I have to imagine that kicks in this year.  I sure don't want to take ABs away from him.  I think they can add a 1b/dh and not take many ABs away from Mountcastle and significantly improve production out of those two spots.   

[Frobby]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreu-fits-the-astros-like-a-glove/

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The question in my mind is whether Mountcastle will improve with experience.  Steamer and Marcel both have him improving next year, in OBP (.316/.314) and otherwise.  Mancini had his worst season his second full year in the league, then his best season in his third full year.  So, you never really know.  

Mountcastle the last 2 years in OBP were .305 and .309. Hays .306 and  .308. I think they are who they are.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, forphase1 said:

It's a perfect analogy. 

First of all, he's heading to the wrong side of 35.  History has shown us the decline is likely to be swift and brutal.  He could be a Cruz like exception, but that's not really a wager I'm willing to bet on.  Especially if I have to overpay to take that risk.

Second, a few millions is a ton of money.  Sure, we are so stupidly numb to the numbers being thrown around it sounds like a rounding error, but in real terms 3-4 million dollars a year is significant, not just money to be thrown away.

So yeah, your argument is poor.  I'm not sure he's worth 19M a year, at least not for all 3 years.  But there is a much greater chance he's worth 19M than him being worth 22M.  Even at 19M I think that's going to be a loser over the entire 3 years, but that's a more reasonable amount of risk and a better chance of at least breaking even over the terms of the contract versus 22-23M a year.  

$3-4 mill/yr is real money to just about everyone but obviously not Jim Crane.  It's his money and his team and he can spend it however he wants.  I would be willing to bet that some DH/1B signed this offseason will provide the same or better production for 1/2 the price.  The Astros can afford to waste money, the O's can't.. My take.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

$3-4 mill/yr is real money to just about everyone but obviously not Jim Crane.  It's his money and his team and he can spend it however he wants.  I would be willing to bet that some DH/1B signed this offseason will provide the same or better production for 1/2 the price.  The Astros can afford to waste money, the O's can't.. My take.

Well it depends on your team. 3-4 million is not a lot of money in the big picture. The average payroll in 2022 was $147+ million dollars. With the new tv deals taking effect it’s going up. So that’s like 2% of you payroll. For the bigger teams it’s chump change. For us it’s currently 9-10 %. But, we should be going up quite substantially too. For one of the top teams it’s absolutely chump change.

Edited November 30, 2022 by Roll Tide

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Mountcastle the last 2 years in OBP were .305 and .309. Hays .306 and  .308. I think they are who they are.

I’m not saying you’re definitely wrong.  I’m just saying that young players often hit another gear after 2-3 seasons.  Not always, but a decent percentage of the time.  Honestly, I thought maybe Hays was getting there last year.  He had a .345 OBP as late as June 27.   Granted, it was largely BA-driven.  But then the roof fell in, for reasons unclear to me.  So, I’m still hopeful there’s more there.   Mountcastle is streaky and as mentioned his expected numbers based on batted ball data were significantly better than actual.  So, I haven’t given up on either.  However, if we go a different direction, or acquire a high OBP complementary piece, you won’t hear me complaining.  

[btdart20]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jose-abreu-fits-the-astros-like-a-glove/

It fits well considering another article Fangraph had a few days ago about how not many good hitters can maintain their skills against good pitching.  Abreu is a pro of pros.  

 

Abreu would have been a great get for the O's.  Even at a market overpay (and it looks like contracts might be higher than expected/historic norms).  He fits and adds depth at a thin position.  He's a nice fit for Houston as well.  They are a top tier team who sees org gaps and realizes top tier players cost money.  

That said, I also think Mountcastle has more in the stat tank.  I doubt it from the sacred OBP perspective, but we all know (as important as that stat is) baseball has multiple skill requirements from multiple positions.  It's still possible to improve at the 1B/DH position, but the pool of talent is thinning.  It's quite possible Elias sits tight with 1B and looks to improve other positions of need.