Is Jose Abreu a worthy target?

[RZNJ]

23 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Believe what you want.  I have 3 indicators that I don't want him playing 1B for the O's.  Errors, Seeing him play and age.  I will go with that.  To me he is a DH that is in decline.

Ok.  

1. Errors?   Then Mateo must be one of the worst defensive SS in the American League.

2. Eye test.  You saw him play 1B for 9 games MAX.  My recollection was that he didn't look so go either.   However, we all know the eye test is flawed.

3. Age -  Ok.  He's 36.   The numbers, don't show that he's in significant decline from when he was younger, defensively.

 

Now, here are 3 objective stats.

OAA -  Mountcastle is +3 and Abrue is +1

DRS - Mountcastle and Abrue are both +1

DPS - Double plays started.  Abreu with 12.  Mountcastle with 3.    So Abreu gave up 6 more outs because of his errors and gained 9 back by starting 9 more DP's than Mountcastle.

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ok.  

1. Errors?   Then Mateo must be one of the worst defensive SS in the American League.

2. Eye test.  You saw him play 1B for 9 games MAX.  My recollection was that he didn't look so go either.   However, we all know the eye test is flawed.

3. Age -  Ok.  He's 36.   The numbers, don't show that he's in significant decline from when he was younger, defensively.

 

Now, here are 3 objective stats.

OAA -  Mountcastle is +3 and Abrue is +1

DRS - Mountcastle and Abrue are both +1

DPS - Double plays started.  Abreu with 12.  Mountcastle with 3.    So Abreu gave up 6 more outs because of his errors and gained 9 back by starting 9 more DP's than Mountcastle.

 

Errors at SS in 2022:

Baez made 26,  Bichette made 23,  Pena made 19, Mateo made 17.  Mateo range made him one of the best SS in the majors defensively.    I doubt Abreu can say that.

As I said.....Believe what you want.   I am not trying to change your opinion.

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

Errors at SS in 2022:

Baez made 26,  Bichette made 23,  Pena made 19, Mateo made 17.  Mateo range made him one of the best SS in the majors defensively.    I doubt Abreu can say that.

As I said.....Believe what you want.   I am not trying to change your opinion.

I doubt Abreu's range is all that great either but he must do something well because the overall numbers like QAA and DRS are very close.   You choose to disregard those.  No problem.    

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I doubt Abreu's range is all that great either but he must do something well because the overall numbers like QAA and DRS are very close.   You choose to disregard those.  No problem.    

Here is one thing to consider.   Mountcastle defense at 1B improved as the year  went on.  What you are looking at is for the whole year.   He finished better than that.

[RZNJ]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is one thing to consider.   Mountcastle defense at 1B improved as the year  went on.  What you are looking at is for the whole year.   He finished better than that.

Are we talking your eye test or the actual statistics?

[eddie83]

 

 

Good breakdown here. Career high ground ball rate. 

[Frobby]

This is from a fantasy perspective:

José Abreu

“Abreu was incredible over the short 2020 season as his HR/FB rate and ISO marks skyrocketed to career best out of nowhere. Predictably, he regressed back to his historical averages in 2021, but that represented a massive decline in fantasy value. 

“In 2022, he posted a career low strikeout rate, but his power disappeared! His HR/FB rate slipped into single digits for the first time, and the first time it fell below his previous low of 14.8%. His ISO finished at just .141, only the second time it fell below .200. What happened?! His maxEV was fine, and while his Barrel% declined back into single digits after three straight low-mid-teen marks, it was still higher than his 2015-2018 seasons when he posted mid-to-high teen HR/FB rates. 

“He’ll be entering his age 36 season next year, but I’m still betting on his power rebounding. The rest of the skills remain stable, so he might actually be a profitable buy next year.”

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/are-2021s-busts-this-seasons-rebounds-a-review/

[Sports Guy]

Hopefully his “power decline” leads to him being cheaper.

[wildcard]

Depending on the contract it takes to get him I am in favor of a one year contract with and option for him to be the O's full time/or close to it DH.     

When Adley is not catching Hyde could determine who is hitting better Adley or Abreu.   This pushes Santander to RF and will impact Stowers at bats.  But I think its worth it and at the deadline Elias can determine what is the right thing to do for the rest of the season.

Abreu splits show that he hits well as a DH,  hits both righties and lefties, and hits well with runners in scoring position.  

I am not a fan of his defense at 1B but he sounds like the middle of the order bat that could help the O's  score more runs.

 

 

[AlbNYfan]

Nope.

[wildcard]

Cubs may have interest in Abreu.

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2022/10/17/23407608/cubs-free-agent-target-jose-abreu

[sportsfan8703]

On 10/22/2022 at 8:44 AM, wildcard said:

Depending on the contract it takes to get him I am in favor of a one year contract with and option for him to be the O's full time/or close to it DH.     

When Adley is not catching Hyde could determine who is hitting better Adley or Abreu.   This pushes Santander to RF and will impact Stowers at bats.  But I think its worth it and at the deadline Elias can determine what is the right thing to do for the rest of the season.

Abreu splits show that he hits well as a DH,  hits both righties and lefties, and hits well with runners in scoring position.  

I am not a fan of his defense at 1B but he sounds like the middle of the order bat that could help the O's  score more runs.

 

 

If we’re only handing out 1 year deals then our market is Mancini and Aguilar, if we want a RH 1B/DH bat. 
 

Of course, I would want Abreu, but I think Elias sits tight, and sees what we have around deadline time. Aguilar on a milb deal is a possibility. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If we’re only handing out 1 year deals then our market is Mancini and Aguilar, if we want a RH 1B/DH bat. 
 

Of course, I would want Abreu, but I think Elias sits tight, and sees what we have around deadline time. Aguilar on a milb deal is a possibility. 

I have zero interest in Aguilar.   The guy has had one season over 1.4 rWAR, and that was six years ago.  He adds absolutely nothing we can’t get internally.   

We should be getting players who might move the needle, or don’t bother.  
 

[NedFromYork]

Abreu seems like a no brainer, he has everything our offense needs.  He and Mountcaslte can give each other days off at 1B and get other ABs at DH.  He is coming off a 3 year $50M contract ($16.67 AAV, $19M last season).  For his age and the little drop off last year maybe 2 years $30M gets it done, maybe less.  Even if a little more the Os have the money for that AND also for a good SP.  Let's you evaluate Mountcastle for additional two years reducing the risk of having a 1B OBP hole if he was full time.  Also, no pick or prospects given up!  We don't have a lot of 1B talent in the minors so doesn't block anyone.

"One note: Abreu has previously received a qualifying offer, so he’s not eligible for another one. Thus (no draft-pick compensation is owed if signed)."

Edited October 26, 2022 by NedFromYork

[AlbNYfan]

55 minutes ago, NedFromYork said:

Abreu seems like a no brainer, he has everything our offense needs.  He and Mountcaslte can give each other days off at 1B and get other ABs at DH.  He is coming off a 3 year $50M contract ($16.67 AAV, $19M last season).  For his age and the little drop off last year maybe 2 years $30M gets it done, maybe less.  Even if a little more the Os have the money for that AND also for a good SP.  Let's you evaluate Mountcastle for additional two years reducing the risk of having a 1B OBP hole if he was full time.  Also, no pick or prospects given up!  We don't have a lot of 1B talent in the minors so doesn't block anyone.

"One note: Abreu has previously received a qualifying offer, so he’s not eligible for another one. Thus (no draft-pick compensation is owed if signed)."

IMO, you are half right..NO!! Two right handed first basemen?.how many HR's in Maybe 10 next year if he plays at Camden, below average D, Old, $16 mill last year ??

If you are going to pay close to 16 mill, the better option in Rizzo,  3 years younger, lefty, power