Law: Uehara not "best fit" for O's

[trueoriolesfan]

Well, he's not the best fit, and Camden Yards isn't the best fit for his style either.

But, he should do well enough, which is all he needs to do for $10M guaranteed over 2 years.

I could not agree we really got a good deal with him only 2 years and $5M each year thats good.

[El Gordo]

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunnel blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...

How can you tell all this from Maine?:laughlol:

[byrdz]

Park factor for home runs is controlled for the home team's performance. Our pitching doesn't have an effect on it.

Ok, I see how it works, they are (in simplified terms) dividing home HR's by road HR's and the greater the number the more prone your home park is to giving up home runs.

I see the importance in having a pitcher less prone to the HR but this stat works for both sides.

96 HR's by our side last season

108 HR's by the other teams visiting

Getting rid of DCab alone (16 HR's at home) puts the visiting teams at 92 HR's, all other things being equal. As long as we're hitting HR's more frequently than the competition in our own park I'm happy.

[RShack]

I forget where I saw it, but somebody said the diff between Uehara and Dice-K is like the diff between Japanese versions of Maddux and Pedro.

So, if you're in a mood to be optimistic, you might wanna ask yourself which one of Maddux and Pedro stayed good longer...

[Ruzious]

Which is fine. Because, by all accounts, Uehara is precise.

Yeah, that's the thing that confused me. Law alluded to his great command, and yet he basically ignored that in his conclusion. A lot of people do that - they do a good job of gathering the pertinent facts, but when it comes to drawing a conclusion - some of those facts get lost.

[Guest rochester]

Understood. But they don't mention us at all, until we do something they don't like. Ridiculous.

Not sure I agree... Law has been fair with us IMO and I do not necessarily disagree with his analysis. But then again I am going by scouting reports not live but outside of him being our first Japanese pick up I am not overly thrilled except for the low BB rate

[JTrea81]

How can you tell all this from Maine?:laughlol:

I've been to OPACY several times including taking a guided tour. I've also reasearched it a ton, due to the modding I do for MVP 2005 for the PC. I know more about OPACY than some people that live right there in Maryland...

I also follow the Gameday highlights and saw all the HRs fly out of that park last season...

[Fan4Life]

No, he describes Uehara as having been the guy who Olson is trying to be.

Thanks... I would put it this way also...

[Lucky Jim]

It's a way to determine how the wind patterns have changed though. Before balls would hardly make it past the fence on to Eutaw St. I know Luke has power, but I don't think those balls travel as far as they did before the hotel went up...

The wind used to pass between OPACY and the Warehouse and act as a wind tunner blowing the balls down, well now the wind is mostly blocked by the Hilton so balls will travel further when hit in the air...

Luke also hit the longest HR I've seen an Oriole hit in Yankee Stadium. The fact is, Scott has the best pure LH'd power the Orioles have had in a long time. In fact, he led the AL in no-doubt HRs last year (and half of his HRs came on the road last year). Now, I can't segregate his "no-doubt" HRs along Home/Road lines, but his power looks pretty comparable in both settings. And the Yankee HR was, at 448 ft, his longest.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_4326&type=hitter

You've got to be careful with those tricky causation/correlation issues.

[RShack]

I forget where I saw it, but somebody said the diff between Uehara and Dice-K is like the diff between Japanese versions of Maddux and Pedro.

So, if you're in a mood to be optimistic, you might wanna ask yourself which one of Maddux and Pedro stayed good longer...

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

Or, if you're in a mood to be not optimistic, you could compare Uehara to Trachsel ;-)

ps: Dunno why you'd compare his track record to Trachsel's though.

[byrdz]

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

If Uehara throws 88-89 with very good command, he has a shot. If he throws 85-86 with very good command, I don't like his chances. The split won't get swung at much regardless of how good it is if the hitters aren't concerned about getting beat by the fastball.

He also has a devastating forkball apparently, his bread and butter pitch.

[Enjoy Terror]

I was joking. I'm not talking down to you. You just stated - flatly, declaratively - that luck does not exist over the course of a season.

There are tons of guys out there who specialize in this stuff and who disagree with you. I'd imagine that 1970 and Drungo would disagree with you.

If you want to say that it's not luck, but that it's not a skill that's repeatable or sustainable, that's fine. That's a semantic argument.

But before you start glibly writing off years of FIP and xFIP and other kinds of data, you should think twice. Like I said, you don't have to believe that it's accurate, or that luck plays a significant role. But it's not an idea that can be tossed away as if irrelevant, unstudied, or unsubstantiated.

Your "luck" comment seems to be implying that his ERA was low but his FIP was wildly inconsistent meaning that he beat the odds in a big way to be better than actually was. His FIP and ERA were roughly consistent with his career totals, but it was without a doubt one of the best years-- if not THE best-- of his career. "Luck", in the FIP context, didn't have much more to do with his success in 2005 than it did in any other of his seasons.

[wildcard]

A fair comparison for Uehara is Kuroda. Kuroda plays in a bigger park for the Dodgers but he was almost as good away as he was a home. Maybe we can evaluate the results as Uehara's stat will be a little higher but not that much.

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/K/Hiroki-Kuroda.shtml

[Guest rochester]

Or, if you're in a mood to be not optimistic, you could compare Uehara to Trachsel ;-)

ps: Dunno why you'd compare his track record to Trachsel's though.

Trachsel may be a little much (a little) but I agree with VAtech on this, he was just more informative as usual.

[CrimsonTribe]

right handed, 6' ish, slim, fastball with not a lot of sink in the upper eighties, good splitter, OK slider, good control/command

Hmmmmm

Substitute "curve" for "slider" and you could be describing Trachsel before he lost his last couple mph.

If Uehara throws 88-89 with very good command, he has a shot. If he throws 85-86 with very good command, I don't like his chances. The split won't get swung at much regardless of how good it is if the hitters aren't concerned about getting beat by the fastball.

To be fair, Trax never had the type of control that Uehara supposedly possesses. I see the point you're making though.