Law: Uehara not "best fit" for O's

[El Gordo]

This is an excellent analysis. However, it fails to explain our record against the AL East versus the rest of the league.

?

You don't need a great offense to beat a team with only one ML SP.:scratchchinhmm:

[Osfan13]

You don't need a great offense to beat a team with only one ML SP.:scratchchinhmm:

Why the disparity in W-L with the East versus the Central and West? You didn't answer my question, I'll help you out:

I wonder if the Orioles were overlooked to a degree by scouts in the AL West and AL Central. Just an idea off the top of my head.

[jiminnj]

This is an excellent analysis. However, it fails to explain our record against the AL East versus the rest of the league.

?

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.

Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

[DrungoHazewood]

Trachsel may be a little much (a little) but I agree with VAtech on this, he was just more informative as usual.

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.

[Fan4Life]

The most important thing to me is his very low walk-rate. That can only be a good thing for us. Walks extend the inning and further tax the pen.

Plus, maybe the young pitchers can pick up a thing or two.

Low walks = good for us. His move to the pen is getting overblown, I really think there is something to the Giants banishing him because he was vocal about his desire to play in the USA.

This is interesting. At what point do you look at a pitchers career and decide he just doesn't have good control? For example, is it possible for a pitcher coming into the draft with great stuff, but a Collegiate and High School career averaging 6-7 walks per 9 innings to actually be able to turn this around at age 22-23? I suppose there are some instances where you tinker with a pitchers delivery etc, but for the most part, should you be drafting guys that need this level of tinkering with at that stage of their game?

[DrungoHazewood]

This is interesting. At what point do you look at a pitchers career and decide he just doesn't have good control? For example, is it possible for a pitcher coming into the draft with great stuff, but a Collegiate and High School career averaging 6-7 walks per 9 innings to actually be able to turn this around at age 22-23? I suppose there are some instances where you tinker with a pitchers delivery etc, but for the most part, should you be drafting guys that need this level of tinkering with at that stage of their game?

My opinion is that you can't expect dramatic improvement. Incremental improvement, maybe. There are always exceptions, some dramatic, but I've come around more and more to the idea that most pitchers are what they are by their early 20s. You can't count on outliers, and there are many more Mitch Willamses than Randy Johnsons.

[Fan4Life]

My opinion is that you can't expect dramatic improvement. Incremental improvement, maybe. There are always exceptions, some dramatic, but I've come around more and more to the idea that most pitchers are what they are by their early 20s. You can't count on outliers, and there are many more Mitch Willamses than Randy Johnsons.

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

[Frobby]

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.

Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

I agree with your analysis of 2008. My only quibble would be that if you look at the last several years, not just 2008, then Law's point that AL East has good offenses becomes more valid. Certainly the Yankees were a juggernaut in 2007. And going forward, Tampa is likely to be a strong offensive club with the addition of Burrell, Crawford back healthy, maturation of Longoria and other young players, etc.

[DrungoHazewood]

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

I don't think this is specifically an Orioles problem, although ours may be more serious than many others. Throughout history scouts have been enamored with big fastballs, often at the expense of everything else. Not too many years ago the Royals wasted a top-10 pick on a guy named Colt Griffin basically on the fact that he once hit 100 mph on a high school radar gun.

I think there will always be teams that look at ridiculous tools and figure it can't be that hard to teach someone to play baseball, right?

I have to believe that this is one of the things that analysis is having an impact on. Fewer and fewer teams will be willing to bet a high-round pick on someone who's 95% tools and 5% polish. The dumping of Cabrera, and signing of Uehara and Matusz might be a sign the O's are starting to move in the right direction.

[Frobby]

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.

I love this about Uehara. I'm so-o-o-o ready to watch a pitcher who throws strikes and can paint the corners all day long. However, I suspect his BB rate may not be as good in the majors, because (1) the Japanese strike zone is bigger, and (2) as his high strikes get smacked around by major league hitters, he may tend to challenge hitters less than he did in Japan and try to do the "paint the corners" thing, which leads to more walks when you just miss. So I'm figuring his BB rate may be more like 2.00 in the majors, or maybe even 2.50.

From what I've read, Uehara literally hates to walk hitters. Should be interesting to see how he adjusts over here.

[Frobby]

I have to agree with your conclusions which puzzle me somewhat in that many, if not most (Matusz aside), of our young pitchers with a lot of upside have issue with BB's. Without looking through their careers to determine if this was a foreseeable outcome, it appears that the O's drafting has placed to much emphasis on outliers. We have 10-12 quality pitching prospects in our system, I wonder how many of them average 4 or less walks per 9 innings?

Arrieta 4.1 career, 4.1 in 2008

Bergesen 1.6 career, 1.6 in 2008

Berken 2.4 career, 2.3 in 2008

Britton 3.3 career, 3.0 in 2008

Erbe 3.8 career, 3.0 in 2008

Hernandez 3.9 career, 4.5 in 2008

Patton 2.6 career, DNP in 2008

Spoone 4.9 career, 5.9 in 2008

Tillman 4.4 career, 4.3 in 2008

We don't have minor league data on Matusz, but based on his college and AFL performance it's safe to predict he'll be under 4 BB/9, and quite possibly under 3 BB/9.

[Sports Guy]

I think the Trachsel comp misses two key things: First, the splitter that others noted. Second, from about 2004-on Trachsel was a nibbler. He had pretty poor BB/9 rates, and K/BB ratios that quickly degraded to unacceptable.

Uehara's calling card is that he's a control artist. That year he was a closer he had four(!) walks in 60+ innings. His career walk rate is 1.19, or about 1/3 of Trachsel's. He never has had a single NPB season where he walked 30 batters.

Trachsel's last season in the majors he nearly topped Uehara's single season high for walks in 39 innings.

What kind of rise in BB rate can we expect though?

[DrungoHazewood]

I love this about Uehara. I'm so-o-o-o ready to watch a pitcher who throws strikes and can paint the corners all day long. However, I suspect his BB rate may not be as good in the majors, because (1) the Japanese strike zone is bigger, and (2) as his high strikes get smacked around by major league hitters, he may tend to challenge hitters less than he did in Japan and try to do the "paint the corners" thing, which leads to more walks when you just miss. So I'm figuring his BB rate may be more like 2.00 in the majors, or maybe even 2.50.

From what I've read, Uehara literally hates to walk hitters. Should be interesting to see how he adjusts over here.

What kind of rise in BB rate can we expect though?

My guess is that Frobby is about right, but he might do better than that. Looking at the Japanese pitchers who've come over only Matsuzaka and Nomo seemed to really struggle at times with control. A lot of the relievers have had really good years as far as walks go - with 10 or 15 in 60 innings being pretty common. Kuroda walked 40-some batters in 180 innings.

We'll see, but I'd be very surprised if a guy known as an extreme control pitcher saw a huge jump in walk rate coming over here.

[Osfan13]

The answer lies in pitching. While we were an average offensive team (average in our division to) our pitching stunk while the rest of AL East had great pitching. Toronto allowed the least runs in the AL (610), TB was second allowing 671, Boston was fourth allowing 694, NY was sixth allowing 727, while we were 13th allowing 869 runs.

Other divisions had overall average pitching, West with Oak 3rd, LA 5th, Seattle 11th and Tex 14th, Central with the 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th and 12th best teams in not allowing runs.

Our division is not a strong division because of the offensive prowless of the teams in it, it is a strong division because it has by far the best pitching in the AL.

The whole premise of Law's that our pitchers face such powerful offenses in our division is just plain wrong. Actually what should concern people is that new hitters are probably going to worse than expected in our division because they are facing such good pitching (hopefully this will apply to Texiera).

Again, excellent analysis. Thanks for responding!

[nadecir]

My guess is that Frobby is about right, but he might do better than that. Looking at the Japanese pitchers who've come over only Matsuzaka and Nomo seemed to really struggle at times with control. A lot of the relievers have had really good years as far as walks go - with 10 or 15 in 60 innings being pretty common. Kuroda walked 40-some batters in 180 innings.

We'll see, but I'd be very surprised if a guy known as an extreme control pitcher saw a huge jump in walk rate coming over here.

You are forgetting about Kei Igawa here. Kei Igawa is one example of a very good pitcher in Japan, who has struggled very badly here.

In 2006 when Igawa was only 27 in Japan, Igawa walked only 49 batters in 209 innings. In the American League the past two seasons, Igawa has walked 37 batters in 71 and two-thirds innings while giving up 15 home runs. I am pretty sure no one expected Igawa to be this bad in the U.S. after how he pitched in Japan. Igawa has certainly struggled with his control in moving to the U.S.