40-Man Additions for Rule 5 Deadline

[CHIP]

Very informative page on Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/40-man-roster

Team	40-man Count	Homegrown %	Free Agent %	Trade %	Waivers %	Rule 5 %	Rank Homegrown	Rank Free Agent	Rank Trade
NYM	31	41.9%	19.4%	32.3%	6.5%	0.0%	16	12	18
CHC	33	51.5%	21.2%	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	12	8	22
COL	33	57.6%	18.2%	18.2%	6.1%	0.0%	9	12	29
SDP	33	27.3%	27.3%	45.5%	0.0%	0.0%	28	4	8
BAL	34	35.3%	8.8%	23.5%	26.5%	5.9%	19	25	26
LAD	34	58.8%	14.7%	17.6%	8.8%	0.0%	4	15	29
TEX	34	38.2%	11.8%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	16	24	6
HOU	35	68.6%	5.7%	22.9%	0.0%	2.9%	3	28	26
MIL	35	31.4%	22.9%	42.9%	2.9%	0.0%	22	5	8
CHW	36	55.6%	13.9%	25.0%	5.6%	0.0%	4	15	22
MIN	36	55.6%	2.8%	36.1%	5.6%	0.0%	4	29	12
PHI	36	47.4%	13.2%	31.6%	7.9%	0.0%	11	15	14
SEA	36	22.2%	13.9%	52.8%	8.3%	2.8%	29	15	4
BOS	37	27.0%	16.2%	37.8%	13.5%	5.4%	27	12	11
NYY	37	32.4%	18.9%	43.2%	2.7%	2.7%	19	8	7
OAK	37	16.2%	13.5%	51.4%	16.2%	2.7%	30	15	4
STL	38	50.0%	13.2%	31.6%	2.6%	2.6%	9	15	14
WSN	38	28.9%	28.9%	26.3%	15.8%	0.0%	22	3	18
ARI	39	33.3%	12.8%	33.3%	17.9%	2.6%	16	15	12
TOR	39	38.5%	20.5%	38.5%	2.6%	0.0%	15	5	8
ATL	40	42.5%	30.0%	22.5%	5.0%	0.0%	12	1	22
CIN	40	50.0%	17.5%	25.0%	7.5%	0.0%	4	8	18
CLE	40	65.0%	7.5%	22.5%	2.5%	2.5%	1	25	22
DET	40	50.0%	12.5%	20.0%	12.5%	5.0%	4	15	26
KCR	40	62.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2	15	18
LAA	40	42.5%	20.0%	27.5%	7.5%	2.5%	12	5	16
MIA	40	27.5%	17.5%	50.0%	2.5%	2.5%	22	8	3
PIT	40	30.0%	2.5%	52.5%	15.0%	0.0%	19	29	2
SFG	40	27.5%	30.0%	27.5%	15.0%	0.0%	22	1	16
TBR	40	27.5%	7.5%	60.0%	2.5%	2.5%	22	25	1

[CHIP]

and a link to the Payroll as well... 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll

Team	Rank Payroll	2023 Payroll Projection	Guaranteed %	Arbitration %	Pre-Arbitration %	2024 Commitments	2025 Commitments	2026 Commitments
OAK	30	$35M	0.0%	40.6%	59.4%	$0	$0	$0
BAL	29	$41M	7.4%	45.9%	46.7%	$0	$0	$0
PIT	28	$50M	33.3%	32.4%	34.3%	$7M	$7M	$7M
TBR	27	$71M	35.6%	51.9%	12.5%	$47M	$11M	$15M
CLE	26	$72M	26.2%	52.7%	21.1%	$25M	$30M	$35M
KCR	25	$77M	42.1%	38.9%	18.9%	$30M	$23M	$2M
CIN	24	$77M	56.3%	24.9%	18.8%	$11M	$0	$0
MIA	23	$101M	42.7%	44.8%	12.5%	$34M	$32M	$25M
MIN	22	$101M	49.1%	37.2%	13.6%	$19M	$18M	$16M
WSN	21	$102M	59.9%	24.8%	15.3%	$70M	$35M	$35M
ARI	20	$102M	58.3%	28.2%	13.4%	$38M	$18M	$17M
SFG	19	$115M	61.6%	28.6%	9.9%	$21M	$0	$0
DET	18	$117M	66.2%	22.7%	11.1%	$51M	$41M	$39M
TEX	17	$122M	77.4%	10.8%	11.8%	$74M	$72M	$58M
CHC	16	$127M	64.6%	18.4%	17.0%	$50M	$20M	$20M
MIL	15	$130M	31.8%	62.1%	6.2%	$33M	$31M	$32M
SEA	14	$131M	74.2%	18.4%	7.4%	$101M	$91M	$82M
BOS	13	$134M	62.4%	29.6%	8.0%	$57M	$29M	$33M
STL	12	$157M	71.2%	23.0%	5.8%	$76M	$40M	$22M
COL	11	$157M	82.9%	8.7%	8.4%	$91M	$72M	$76M
LAA	10	$161M	82.9%	8.2%	9.0%	$91M	$83M	$77M
HOU	9	$164M	75.5%	17.4%	7.2%	$115M	$47M	$45M
LAD	8	$170M	59.6%	34.8%	5.6%	$74M	$70M	$61M
CHW	7	$173M	78.4%	15.5%	6.0%	$88M	$24M	$2M
PHI	6	$179M	77.5%	13.6%	8.9%	$116M	$91M	$48M
NYY	5	$190M	70.2%	25.3%	4.5%	$96M	$90M	$78M
TOR	4	$194M	63.5%	32.7%	3.8%	$75M	$66M	$66M
ATL	3	$196M	83.1%	12.3%	4.6%	$109M	$97M	$93M
SDP	2	$204M	67.0%	26.8%	6.1%	$95M	$98M	$81M
NYM	1	$237M	79.6%	15.6%	4.8%	$133M	$75M	$55M

[CHIP]

Comparing Payroll vs. 40 man roster before the 6 PM Deadline today...

Team	Rule 5 %	40-man Count	Rank Payroll	2023 Payroll Projection
NYM	0.00%	31	1	$237M
CHC	0.00%	33	16	$127M
COL	0.00%	33	11	$157M
SDP	0.00%	33	2	$204M
BAL	5.90%	34	29	$41M
LAD	0.00%	34	8	$170M
TEX	0.00%	34	17	$122M
HOU	2.90%	35	9	$164M
MIL	0.00%	35	15	$130M
CHW	0.00%	36	7	$173M
MIN	0.00%	36	22	$101M
PHI	0.00%	36	6	$179M
SEA	2.80%	36	14	$131M
BOS	5.40%	37	13	$134M
NYY	2.70%	37	5	$190M
OAK	2.70%	37	30	$35M
STL	2.60%	38	12	$157M
WSN	0.00%	38	21	$102M
ARI	2.60%	39	20	$102M
TOR	0.00%	39	4	$194M
ATL	0.00%	40	3	$196M
CIN	0.00%	40	24	$77M
CLE	2.50%	40	26	$72M
DET	5.00%	40	18	$117M
KCR	0.00%	40	25	$77M
LAA	2.50%	40	10	$161M
MIA	2.50%	40	23	$101M
PIT	0.00%	40	28	$50M
SFG	0.00%	40	19	$115M
TBR	2.50%	40	27	$71M

[Tony-OH]

21 hours ago, Pickles said:

Rom's getting protected.

I would not be so sure. Rom is similar in stuff to Zach Lowther and we saw him flame out pretty hard. I've been disappointed with his development overall and would not be surprised if he's left unprotected.

Now saying that, he could be a depth guy this year and could provide some long relief type role if needed, so I'd probably protect him over several players on the roster, starting with Tyler Nevin who has no role on a major league 40-man roster.

[Just Regular]

Deadline is precisely 6pm this evening, so whatever wheeling and dealing the Rays, Guardians, Dodgers and any others have to do with their Deep Depth farm systems will all be this afternoon.

Will Elias with his newfound financial might find an Arb2 or Arb3 guy he wants to pay, and does his improving system have anything at the lower levels famous hoarders like CLE or TB would want?

[Spy Fox]

26 minutes ago, CHIP said:

Very informative page on Fangraphs:

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/40-man-roster

We're the highest in the league at 26.5% waivers. The next highest is 16.2%. Several teams are at 0%. 

[btdart20]

It would be nice to see some MiLB trades/reallocation of resources from some non-Rule 5 toward some Rule-5 roster casualties that we can protect.  Maybe toward SPs or 1Bs?

Here's MLB.com's list of tough decisions:

Toughest Rule 5 Draft decisions for each team (mlb.com)

And here's the MLB.com's list of top 30 players (per their rankings) who need to be protected:

Rule 5 Draft prospects protected on 40-man rosters (mlb.com)

 

[Pickles]

28 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would not be so sure. Rom is similar in stuff to Zach Lowther and we saw him flame out pretty hard. I've been disappointed with his development overall and would not be surprised if he's left unprotected.

Now saying that, he could be a depth guy this year and could provide some long relief type role if needed, so I'd probably protect him over several players on the roster, starting with Tyler Nevin who has no role on a major league 40-man roster.

Well, personally, I'd be shocked, but I'm not near as plugged in as you, and obviously as the FO is.  I think he still has starter upside, and he could survive and contribute in a limited bullpen role as soon as next year.  To me, that makes him an ideal Rule 5 pick, and somebody that should be protected.

But I cede to the experts.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would not be so sure. Rom is similar in stuff to Zach Lowther and we saw him flame out pretty hard. I've been disappointed with his development overall and would not be surprised if he's left unprotected.

Now saying that, he could be a depth guy this year and could provide some long relief type role if needed, so I'd probably protect him over several players on the roster, starting with Tyler Nevin who has no role on a major league 40-man roster.

I’d be really surprised if Rom was unprotected.  You’ve not been very high on him the last year or two, but this organization is thin on pitching and Rom is in AAA and still pretty young.   I think they’ll give him his chance to sink or swim.  

[Ohfan67]

52 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

We're the highest in the league at 26.5% waivers. The next highest is 16.2%. Several teams are at 0%. 

Also highest percent from Rule 5. 83 wins from a bargain basement roster. Pretty wild. 

[Sports Guy]

I think Tony is spot on about Rom.  While I think they will ultimately protect him, I get why they wouldn’t if they choose not to.

My gripe would be that severaL players on the 40 man should go before Rom but if I’m just looking at Rom himself, I could see him being left off.  Personally, I don’t see him as a guy who would stick all year on a ML roster, so we would end up with him anyway.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Spy Fox said:

We're the highest in the league at 26.5% waivers. The next highest is 16.2%. Several teams are at 0%. 

Not totally surprising but there was a time when the narrative was that Elias was good a drafting but bad at evaluating MLB talent. Now he can check that box, at least as far as waiver wire is concerned. Next step is to sign a couple of free agents to put us over the top. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, btdart20 said:

 

Toughest Rule 5 Draft decisions for each team (mlb.com)

 

 

Interesting, they have Rom as our "tough decision." Does that mean Denoyer has jumped ahead of him as a lock, or they think Denoyer is more of a lock to be unprotected? I really hope it's not the latter as he had an outstanding year. 

[Three Run Homer]

Garrett Stallings is an interesting case.  He veered between being brilliant and being awful this past season.  To me that suggests that there is some upside risk that makes me want to protect him, but if people who actually saw him this season believe that his stuff is pedestrian, I'd trust their judgment.  

[waroriole]