2022 #5 Prospect Coby Mayo - 3B

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The know where the data comes from. I'm wondering how this guy got ah old it because it's supposed to not be released yet. It pisses me off that this data is not available to the public for minor leaguers.

Would be awesome to have access to that info.  They must have some arrangement with the teams to get that level of info.   It’s pretty crazy to think what teams can do now to engineer a game plan around each and every player and their physiological  nuances.  

[btdart20]

12 hours ago, seak05 said:

This was from an article noting that Mayo is exceptionally good at hitting the high fastball. The opening part of the section notes that he is one of the bet hitters in the minors with high fastballs, and has many laudatory things to say https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/9/the-best-fastball-hitters-in-the-minors

However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path. 

 

These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball. 

Thanks for sharing!  The 4seamer with spin/rise is the current trend in pitching because of the mind games it plays with hitters.  Should be fun years ahead for Mayo hunting his pitch!  

[seak05]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

The know where the data comes from. I'm wondering how this guy got ah old it because it's supposed to not be released yet. It pisses me off that this data is not available to the public for minor leaguers.

The data hoarding (pro golf does it too) is really really frustrating 

[Tony-OH]

For his doubters, in case you want to see what impacting the baseball looks like, I give you Coby Mayo's 2022 Highlights.

[RZNJ]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

For his doubters, in case you want to see what impacting the baseball looks like, I give you Coby Mayo's 2022 Highlights.

Why would this video be for his doubters?  I don’t think anyone doubts he can be very impressive and his power is probably the best in the system.   The doubts will be how consistent he’s able to get to his power and if he has weaknesses that can be consistently exploited.   One concern is is pull tendency.  You described Westburg as a pull hitter.  According to Fangraphs Westburg pulls 50% and goes oppo about 28%. For Mayo it’s 53% and 19%.    Every homer in the highlight video seemed to range from straight away LF to down the LF line.   He has a ton of potential but there are reasons for doubt.  I do applaud your unbridled enthusiasm though.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Why would this video be for his doubters?  I don’t think anyone doubts he can be very impressive and his power is probably the best in the system.   The doubts will be how consistent he’s able to get to his power and if he has weaknesses that can be consistently exploited.   One concern is is pull tendency.  You described Westburg as a pull hitter.  According to Fangraphs Westburg pulls 50% and goes oppo about 28%. For Mayo it’s 53% and 19%.    Every homer in the highlight video seemed to range from straight away LF to down the LF line.   He has a ton of potential but there are reasons for doubt.  I do applaud your unbridled enthusiasm though.  

Mayo also hits the ball consistently harder and farther than Westburg and is what, three years younger? I'm going to stick with my guy!

 

 

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Mayo also hits the ball consistently harder and farther than Westburg and is what, three years younger? I'm going to stick with my guy!

 

 

Mayo could be a monster.   No doubt.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Mayo also hits the ball consistently harder and farther than Westburg and is what, three years younger? I'm going to stick with my guy!

 

 

Farther, maybe.  Consistently harder?   Westburg had 66 XBH in 622 PA (10.6%), Mayo had 39 in 439 PA (8.9%).   So I don’t know about that.  

Anyway, I think the point RZNJ was trying to make is that a highlight video isn’t really going to convince doubters.  By their nature, highlight videos show what happens when things go right.   They don’t show what happens when things go wrong, or how often they do.  Nobody really doubts that when Mayo finds the barrel, the ball is going to go a long way.  Will he find it often enough?   Will he find a defensive home?  Those are really the questions about Mayo.  

I want to add, I enjoyed watching the highlights and am not at all down on Mayo.  What he’s done so far is impressive.   I think the final questions about him should get answered in 2023.  

 

[Tony-OH]

48 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Farther, maybe.  Consistently harder?   Westburg had 66 XBH in 622 PA (10.6%), Mayo had 39 in 439 PA (8.9%).   So I don’t know about that.  

Anyway, I think the point RZNJ was trying to make is that a highlight video isn’t really going to convince doubters.  By their nature, highlight videos show what happens when things go right.   They don’t show what happens when things go wrong, or how often they do.  Nobody really doubts that when Mayo finds the barrel, the ball is going to go a long way.  Will he find it often enough?   Will he find a defensive home?  Those are really the questions about Mayo.  

I want to add, I enjoyed watching the highlights and am not at all down on Mayo.  What he’s done so far is impressive.   I think the final questions about him should get answered in 2023.  

 

You guys are really focused on one word. lol

I clearly was showing how he impacts the baseball and why that's special. I realize that a lot of people don't watch minor league baseball enough to know that it's pretty special to watch a 20-year old impact the baseball like that, especially against much older pitching.

I'm pretty sure I know about all those other things since I wrote them up, but I'm also not worried about his miss because it's not extreme, and not even bad for a power hitter. I'm not going to sink him for his taste of AA when he was four years (avg) younger than most of his competition.

Any way, the video was really to let people see him do some of things I talked about. You or anyone else wants to get down on over his AA number at 20-years old. Feel free.

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

For his doubters, in case you want to see what impacting the baseball looks like, I give you Coby Mayo's 2022 Highlights.

Look at the HR at 0:52 of the video and tell me what the runner at 1B was doing. Mayo almost passed him rounding first!

[Tony-OH]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Look at the HR at 0:52 of the video and tell me what the runner at 1B was doing. Mayo almost passed him rounding first!

I saw that. Maybe he was thinking of tagging up or maybe he was amazed at him far that ball was hit and mesmerized! lol

[Sports Guy]

Tony is wrong here.  Mayo should be 4th.  

[Just Regular]

One tidbit in the Hernaiz interview explosivo linked about Mayo went like one of the guys had interviewed Mayo near the time of him finishing Aberdeen, and Mayo shared his expected SLG was about .150 higher than his actual SLG.

On Aberdeen as tough place to hit, was new to me Hernaiz sharing that the batter's eye there is see through.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Tony is wrong here.  Mayo should be 4th.  

He very well should have been. I went back and forth with him and Hall at #4. I even had Hall lower, but I really think has a really good chance of being an impact high leverage reliever and while I really believe in Mayo, I do want to see those numbers improve next year in Bowie at 21 years old.

[Tony-OH]

40 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

One tidbit in the Hernaiz interview explosivo linked about Mayo went like one of the guys had interviewed Mayo near the time of him finishing Aberdeen, and Mayo shared his expected SLG was about .150 higher than his actual SLG.

On Aberdeen as tough place to hit, was new to me Hernaiz sharing that the batter's eye there is see through.

That partially explains why guys numbers are typically not very good in Aberdeen, but a lot of these guys also hit mediocre away as well, so perhaps the other stadiums have similar issues?

All I know is the Sally League is the absolute worse for MiLB TV coverage. So hard to get good video and when they do provide the MPH, they are way off a lot of times. Frustrating league to watch or not watch in some cases still.