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Roll Tide

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geschinger Veteran All-Star

geschinger

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28 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

Good post, completely agree.  There are bad contracts and then there are good contracts that overpay at the end.  This is the latter.  The Yankees are paying for the next 5 years, anything they get in years 6-9 are gravy.  And if Judge continues to have them in the playoffs for the next 5 years then it will be completely worth it.

If you want to bring in a sure-fire guy you have to overpay.  If you want to keep payroll flexibility you have to dig in the bargain bin and hope for the best.  The truly bad contracts are the Chris Davis ones, where the guy is not necessarily surefire.  That was a big mistake giving him the money and not Machado.

If they get the Aaron Judge production from the last five years over the next 5 years that could potentially be a good contract that overpays at the end.  However I think you are being extremly optimistic - I think it's much more likely they get no more than 2-3 years (if that) before dramatic regression.  And one that even for the Yankees (as long as they continue to try to avoid being the Dodgers shooting past the luxury tax) does more harm than good overall.

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Why?  It’s the truth.  Anyone paying attention can see the O’s are in a position to compete for the next several years at a minimum.  I think most players and their agents are pretty sophisticated abo

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MLB has a measure of market size called the Revenue Sharing Market Score, that they use to determine the ten smallest markets eligible for extra draft picks.  The O’s rank 21st on that list.  If it’s

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HakunaSakata Major Leaguer Rising Star

HakunaSakata

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7 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

The Sox have to add a starter or two, right? They have Sale (if healthy), Paxton (if healthy) and then Pivetta, Bello, and Whitlock. If everyone is healthy and at their best, it's not a bad rotation, but there is no way anyone can have any confidence in Sale or Paxton being healthy. 

FYI - Red Sox general manager Brian O'Halloran told reporters that Tanner Houck (back) has been told to prepare for the 2023 season as a potential starter. My guess is they bump Whitlock back to the pen or use him as a spot starter. 

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Aristotelian Hangout Grand Counsel

Aristotelian

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37 minutes ago, StottyByNature said:

Good post, completely agree.  There are bad contracts and then there are good contracts that overpay at the end.  This is the latter.  The Yankees are paying for the next 5 years, anything they get in years 6-9 are gravy.  And if Judge continues to have them in the playoffs for the next 5 years then it will be completely worth it.

If you want to bring in a sure-fire guy you have to overpay.  If you want to keep payroll flexibility you have to dig in the bargain bin and hope for the best.  The truly bad contracts are the Chris Davis ones, where the guy is not necessarily surefire.  That was a big mistake giving him the money and not Machado.

I'd have given the same contract that Verlander got.  I hope we overpay for Rodon.  I'm betting we will end up with another mid-level SP or make a trade of prospects for an established guy.

Problem is, Rodon's consistency is nowhere near comparable to Judge. He's got some Robbie Ray risk. If he reverts to his career norms, he's not Chris Davis-level bad but he would be a severe overpay. I would be thrilled to get him, but he's not a sure thing by any means. 

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Problem is, Rodon's consistency is nowhere near comparable to Judge. He's got some Robbie Ray risk. If he reverts to his career norms, he's not Chris Davis-level bad but he would be a severe overpay. I would be thrilled to get him, but he's not a sure thing by any means. 

I don’t think we would have to worry about performance with Rodon…just health.

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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Alright, so - honestly the top guys we've been hoping for are still out there: Rodon, Bassitt, Senga. 

And the lower tier guys - Stripling, Manaea, Eovaldi, Syndergaard

I'm not sure it's realistic to believe we're in on any of the top guys, but it's not like we've missed out on some amazing pitchers yet. Guys like Taillon, Walker, Quintana, Heaney would be nice for rotation stability, but it remains possible that our guys can equal their production. If you want to take a rosier view of it. 

If we miss on the top guys, I'd kind of be fine not signing any of the lower tier guys and going for a trade instead. As long as that trade was for a high impact player - not of the Duquette trade variety.

 

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RVAOsFan Major Leaguer Rising Star

RVAOsFan

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2 minutes ago, interloper said:

Alright, so - honestly the top guys we've been hoping for are still out there: Rodon, Bassitt, Senga. 

And the lower tier guys - Stripling, Manaea, Eovaldi, Syndergaard

I'm not sure it's realistic to believe we're in on any of the top guys, but it's not like we've missed out on some amazing pitchers yet. Guys like Taillon, Walker, Quintana, Heaney would be nice for rotation stability, but it remains possible that our guys can equal their production. If you want to take a rosier view of it. 

If we miss on the top guys, I'd kind of be fine not signing any of the lower tier guys and going for a trade instead. As long as that trade was for a high impact player - not of the Duquette trade variety.

 

Elias seems to have the warehouse pretty much leak proof so I don't really think anything is unrealistic at this point.  If you believe comments like Boras made yesterday then Elias is not in San Diego for the free breakfast buffet this week.  I am not counting on big signings but if they happen I wont be surprised. 

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maybenxtyr Hangout Veteran Council

maybenxtyr

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I have no way of knowing this, but it seems as though there's really not anymore money available for the 2023 team in comparison to the 2022 payroll. Everything that has been done so far has been an equivalent to '22. Any talk of escalating payroll has been kinda walked back by accounting for arb increases. 

 

There's still a plenty of time to prove me wrong but I just don't believe ownership will be willing to let payroll get too high.

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interloper Hangout Grand Counsel

interloper

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2 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I have no way of knowing this, but it seems as though there's really not anymore money available for the 2023 team in comparison to the 2022 payroll. Everything that has been done so far has been an equivalent to '22. Any talk of escalating payroll has been kinda walked back by accounting for arb increases. 

 

There's still a plenty of time to prove me wrong but I just don't believe ownership will be willing to let payroll get too high.

Well but then you have Elias confirming they have multi-year offers out for several players. 

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DrinkinWithFermi All-Star

DrinkinWithFermi

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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Is this the part where we start talking about "token offers?"

"Token" might not be the right word. It would not surprise me if he put offers in thinking they were fair and realistic only to find out that the market is much more favorable to free agents this year than he expected.

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geschinger Veteran All-Star

geschinger

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4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

"Token" might not be the right word. It would not surprise me if he put offers in thinking they were fair and realistic only to find out that the market is much more favorable to free agents this year than he expected.

This or if we have offers that aren't immediately dismissed  I would guess they are competetive offers but maybe less years than the player was hoping for.  If they can't find a team willing to stretch further then maybe the O's offer gets accepted.

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