“Orioles big game shopping & most believe it's exclusively rotation”

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Holy sh!t, that is one horrible contract.  

Is it that bad compared to the other mega-contracts this winter?

Correa (13/$350 mm): career 39.5 rWAR, 28 next season, has 13 years to earn 44 rWAR (at $8 mm/WAR).  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Judge: (9/$360 mm): career 37.0 rWAR, 31 next season, has 9 years to earn 45 rWAR.  Will be 39 when his contract ends.

Turner (11/$300 mm): career 29.7 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 37.5 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Bogaerts (11/$280 mm): career 34.9 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 35 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.  

Correa is 2-3 years younger than the others and has the highest career rWAR of the group.  He has the longest time to earn his contract.  
 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So it’s ok to risk $180-200+M on Rodon but not make on some levels a similar cost risk for Adley’s 30-32/34 seasons and Gunnar’s 28-29-30 seasons? You increase the years of those two plus a Holliday being together. 
 

The Orioles are also a business. We know the off-season buzz impacts ticket sales. Sure if they win the people will come at some point. That said you could truly market your team around these two and push season ticket sales. 
 

John Angelos will be long gone from owning the team by the time you are at the end of these deals. He could help his own/family legacy by tying down 2 elite homegrown talents. He already looks better on baseball side with Elias. On business side I don’t think he looks better than his dad. He keeps the team until his fathers passing hopes he wins a ring in that time and keeps the teams core players here for the long term. 

When have I ever said it’s ok to risk 180-200M on Rodon?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Is it that bad compared to the other mega-contracts this winter?

Correa (13/$350 mm): career 39.5 rWAR, 28 next season, has 13 years to earn 44 rWAR (at $8 mm/WAR).  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Judge: (9/$360 mm): career 37.0 rWAR, 31 next season, has 9 years to earn 45 rWAR.  Will be 39 when his contract ends.

Turner (11/$300 mm): career 29.7 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 37.5 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Bogaerts (11/$280 mm): career 34.9 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 35 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.  

Correa is 2-3 years younger than the others and has the highest career rWAR of the group.  He has the longest time to earn his contract.  
 

They are all horrible.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When have I ever said it’s ok to risk 180-200M on Rodon?

If we were ever in on him that’s what it would cost. 
 

I would love for the Orioles to have the brains of TB but with more spending power. At some point risks of some sort will have to be taken. Do you do it with elite position players or FA arms? Obviously can do both. I doubt they will. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

If we were ever in on him that’s what it would cost. 
 

I would love for the Orioles to have the brains of TB but with more spending power. At some point risks of some sort will have to be taken. Do you do it with elite position players or FA arms? Obviously can do both. I doubt they will. 

The Os do have the brains of TB.  They just don’t have the established pipeline that Tampa has built for 15 years.

And sure, there is risk in anything.  I think they should sign Adley and Gunnar but it’s not some horrible tragedy if they don’t do it.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

I don’t get how you want Syndergaard in a 3 year deal but Gibson at 1/10 is something you keep going on about. 

He's been better historically, he was better last year, he's younger, and he has more upside. 

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os do have the brains of TB.  They just don’t have the established pipeline that Tampa has built for 15 years.

And sure, there is risk in anything.  I think they should sign Adley and Gunnar but it’s not some horrible tragedy if they don’t do it.

I don’t think it’s a trajedy but it makes sense to me to do it on multiple levels. Players of course have to be on board. Well know if we are 2/3 years down the road they are gone unless a new owner wants to look like a hero. 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are all horrible.

Well, that’s another story.   I’m interested to see whether the $/WAR needle has moved significantly when this winter is over, and whether that holds in the future.   The history here is that the cost of 1 WAR was about $3.9 mm in 2002 (the first year Fangraphs calculated it), and that figure steadily rose until it reached about $8 mm/WAR in 2013 or so.  It’s been pretty much flat for the last 9 years.  So, it’s probably overdue for an increase.    These contracts seem crazy now, but in a year or two we may be saying they just reflected a permanent change in the market.  

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, that’s another story.   I’m interested to see whether the $/WAR needle has moved significantly when this winter is over, and whether that holds in the future.   The history here is that the cost of 1 WAR was about $3.9 mm in 2002 (the first year Fangraphs calculated it), and that figure steadily rose until it reached about $8 mm/WAR in 2013 or so.  It’s been pretty much flat for the last 9 years.  So, it’s probably overdue for an increase.    These contracts seem crazy now, but in a year or two we may be saying they just reflected a permanent change in the market.  

Most of these deals will see these guys being terrible for most of the back half of the contract. If these teams don’t win a title with these guys in the next 3-4 years, they will be highly regrettable.

[Moose Milligan]

Don't know where to put this and it doesn't really warrant it's own thread but I figured some of you guys would like this.  I found it interesting but the actual negotiations seem pretty basic.  

 

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

How much do you want to pay for FA years and how much will they expect? I would guess around 30M.

I don't automatically believe Boras would counsel Gunnar to sell a FA year for 1/30 about now.

The mirror gets warped when AAV's get downsized (deferred, practically) with extra years.     Judge is only 40, or Correa and Trea 27 when it is the moment in their careers when Clubs are wrapping up paying them for the entirety of their life's work with the back years.

Mike Elias could try going to Boras like, "see, more than Correa!", but then he'd go "let's see what Juan Soto's gonna get in arbitration".     If our best hopes realize and Gunnar plays like Soto the next 6 years, has Boras had a younger elite FA since A-Rod?

[Tony-OH]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They are all horrible.

Perhaps, but if the teams win a World Series within that time frame, they are not going to be too concerned about the down years when these players will not be earning that money most likely.

Whether we like it or not, these teams have done the financial math and these signing work for them. The question we should have is why are similar market teams able to do some of these deals with the Orioles sit on the sidelines twiddling thumbs?

I think we know why.

[deward]

8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

The mirror gets warped when AAV's get downsized (deferred, practically) with extra years.     Judge is only 40, or Correa and Trea 27 when it is the moment in their careers when Clubs are wrapping up paying them for the entirety of their life's work with the back years.

 

This is an underappreciated point. While the new CBA made some changes to get more money in the hands of younger players, the reality is that the best players are wildly underpaid for their first few years, compared to the value they bring to their clubs. Overpaying for their twilight years brings some balance. Given the way the system is built, not having teams willing to hand out these deals would be a major disservice to those players, regardless of whether or not it makes financial sense for the O's at any particular point in time. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Is it that bad compared to the other mega-contracts this winter?

Correa (13/$350 mm): career 39.5 rWAR, 28 next season, has 13 years to earn 44 rWAR (at $8 mm/WAR).  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Judge: (9/$360 mm): career 37.0 rWAR, 31 next season, has 9 years to earn 45 rWAR.  Will be 39 when his contract ends.

Turner (11/$300 mm): career 29.7 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 37.5 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.

Bogaerts (11/$280 mm): career 34.9 rWAR, 30 next season, has 11 years to earn 35 rWAR.  Will be 40 when his contract ends.  

Correa is 2-3 years younger than the others and has the highest career rWAR of the group.  He has the longest time to earn his contract.  
 

I suspect the $/WAR has gone up this year and should be expected to go up over the course of 11-13 years. Certainly 2035 dollars will be worth less than 2022 dollars. I think 40 WAR could be a reasonable expectation to call it a success.

Correa has put up 39.5 WAR through age 27. I wonder how many SS put up more WAR age 28-40 than rookie-27. Quick glance, looks like Cal and ARod did it, Jeter did not. Trea appears to be the worst bet to outperform his contract. 

[Just Regular]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Don't know where to put this and it doesn't really warrant it's own thread but I figured some of you guys would like this.  I found it interesting but the actual negotiations seem pretty basic.  

 

 

 

 

I see David Samson titled his program Nothing Personal, but he didn't sound that way.    The Wei-Yin Chen mention in there I enjoyed.    When Samson goes we aren't going to be able to keep Jose Fernandez because of that, it did give me a little bit of a Nate Eovaldi and Grayson Rodriguez vibe.

MLB revenues are so big it is really just points at the top of the scale - team presidents are used in the aggregate to being more skilled at points retention/acquisition than player reps, but its interesting to see an authentic reaction when they have to engage in it with someone who is approximately as good as them.