“Liftoff - Perhaps a Bit Misunderstood “

[Going Underground]

5 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Cot's this morning has integrated Gibson into its 2023 Opening Day projections - bottom group now at:

OAK 31.3, BAL 53.5, PIT 54.1, CLE 68.6, CIN 71.2, KC 71.4, TBR 72.8

I don't believe the CLE number on homepage reflects Josh Bell yet - stepping into their 2023 CLE sheet they have him at the top pushing the Guardians to 83-84, may just be timing issue with individuals getting out to MLB-wide summary.

So BAL-TBR, we're about one Chris Bassitt away from 2023 parity for the moment.

Taijuan 18, Taillon 17 informs the Bassitt-Senga-Eovaldi batch decently.   I think Clubs might haggle more with Stripling-Kluber-Manaea.

Seth Lugo only cleared 60 IP last year - I hadn't compared him for bulk roles to other 2023 guys.   His K-BB was 18 - very good by SP standards, though almost certain to fade with more volume (Eflin for example last year got to a seasonal ~15 having run about 12 as a SP and 30+ as a RP).

 

Also the Rays want to sign another outfielder. Supposedly made an offer to Nimmo but probably won't get him.

[Bemorewins]

I hear ya.

There's no way for me to personally "punish" the O's. But that's the only way I can send a message to ownership that I am not onboard with them not doing the right thing over and over. They have pocketed profits for the last 4 years. About how long do they plan to continue to do this?

I enjoy going to games as well. But enjoy them even more when the team is relevant, talented, successful, and in the running for a chance to win a pennant. Last season was fun because it was so pleasantly surprising. But I had WAY more fun in 2014 and 1997 (and I was only a teenager in 97).

[deward]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

You say this as if Elias didn’t know what the budget was going to be.

None of you are listening to what the man says. None of you are paying attention to how things are being done or what was and is being done in the place he came from.

Let’s make things perfectly clear. This team is only going to go as far as the players who are already in the organization  can carry it. This is how it’s always going to be and it’s how it should be and usually how it always works in pro sports.  Some teams will spend more money to supplement what they have but largely you go where your existing talent can take you.

I can't agree with the bolded part. Key free agents are often a crucial piece of championship teams. See Charlie Morton with the Braves or Max Scherzer with the Nats for recent examples. I don't think anyone is advocating to construct an entire team that way, but bolstering a weak spot (like, say, a questionable rotation) with a premium free agent or two is a perfectly viable strategy if the team is willing to spend the money to do it. Being unable, or unwilling, to play in the deeper end of the market just restricts your options when it comes to team-building.

 

[Going Underground]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I have a share of season tickets, but it makes plenty of sense to go game-by-game instead.  I just don’t care about “punishing” the Orioles by not doing something I enjoy doing, i.e., going to baseball games.  I certainly go more often when they’re in the race than when they’re not.  

They will be bottom 5 to 10 again in attendance and payroll. No one was rushing out to see Adley and Gunnar play and if they are not active ,they will stay low in attendance. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by Going Underground

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, deward said:

I can't agree with the bolded part. Key free agents are often a crucial piece of championship teams. See Charlie Morton with the Braves or Max Scherzer with the Nats for recent examples. I don't think anyone is advocating to construct an entire team that way, but bolstering a weak spot (like, say, a questionable rotation) with a premium free agent or two is a perfectly viable strategy if the team is willing to spend the money to do it. Being unable, or unwilling, to play in the deeper end of the market just restricts your options when it comes to team-building.

 

Sure, you can bolster a spot.  No one has ever said different.  But you mentioned Morton…didn’t exactly get a huge deal.

The Astros just gave Abreu the most money they have given to a FA during this run.

Where the Os need to show they will spend is in the trade market.

Astros took on Verlanders contract (what was left on it) when he was “slumping”.  Os need to make moves like that. Don’t have the long term stuff weighing you down and the salaries are likely less because they were deals signed in markets not as big as right now.

[Bemorewins]

The thing that should be considered with attendance is that the O's have a negative recent history in the community because they have constantly done the wrong things. They have burned A LOT of bridges with a lot of fans. I know plenty of people who used to go to games who are not that interested. Plus younger people are attracted to winners. All you have to do is look at social media is set up with stuff like "following" and "likes". If a person doesn't have enough of those things, they don't pay attention to them or at least assign some sort of negative value to their content. And then lastly, the game of baseball has lot popularity through the years, there are not as many baseball fans as there were say even 20 years ago.

Having said all that, the Orioles are going to have to "change" in order to draw more people/fans and get them interested in them. They were/are off to a very good start with all of the foundational changes that they made (which to be honest is what reengaged me). No I did not attend a single game in 19- 21 because of how hurt I was in how the mishandled things in 18.

The hardest part is now ahead of them, which is actually spending difference making money (something that they have shown great reticence to do up until this point). They have a wonderful foundation now, I believe we can all agree on that. Now they must make the investments to fill in the empty spaces to what can be a championship contending puzzle. 

Gibson alone simply doesn't move the needle. They need to more.

[turtlebowl]

Is it just possible that we aren't signing this marginal talent that is getting over paid because Elias is working hard to get a real difference maker?  For example we probably don't have it within the budget to overpay for a Taillon type and still be in serious negotiations with Rodon or Correa.  Now I know this is a stretch to even consider this but there is certainly enough smoke out there to say we are talking to these types.  

The thing I would be concerned about is if the scenario above could in some universe be correct, Elias must really feel like he has a shot at something big because other options are quickly dissipating. 

I know being an O's fan we are in the mindset of same old O's, unwilling to pay market value so now time to go dumpster diving.  I guess time will tell.   

[Sports Guy]

What does bother me (and I know this could just be talk as of right now) is that it seems like the team that ended the year is basically what they will go with.

Hyde and Elias are talking Urias at second and Mateo at SS. 

They say they don’t want to trade big league players.

They basically replaced Lyles with his clone, so there is no upgrade there.

Where is the team going to get better outside of the returning young guys performing at a higher level?

There will be, unquestionably, regression by some guys as well. There will be more injuries. The luck won’t be as strong.

You have to get a lot better.

[geschinger]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, you can bolster a spot.  No one has ever said different.  But you mentioned Morton…didn’t exactly get a huge deal.

The Astros just gave Abreu the most money they have given to a FA during this run.

Where the Os need to show they will spend is in the trade market.

Astros took on Verlanders contract (what was left on it) when he was “slumping”.  Os need to make moves like that. Don’t have the long term stuff weighing you down and the salaries are likely less because they were deals signed in markets not as big as right now.

This I think is exactly right.  The Orioles braintrust came from Houston and it's safe to assume their philosophies are going to be similar and that philosophy does not include signing top FA to long term contracts. 

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

They will be bottom 5 to 10 again in attendance and payroll. No one was rushing out to see Adley and Gunnar play and if they are not active ,they will stay low in attendance. 

Last year they were 29th in payroll, 24th in attendance.   In 2019, they were 25th in payroll, 29th in attendance.  That tells me fans care more about winning than they do about payroll.   Last year’s winning season came out of the blue, so I’d expect season ticket sales to be up a little, along with first-half walk-up sales.  But bottom 10?  Almost for sure.  Heck, they were only 20th in attendance the last time they made the playoffs, and that was after five straight competitive seasons.   Last year they drew 1.368 mm; I’d say any increase above 1.7 mm would really surprise me.   

[deward]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Sure, you can bolster a spot.  No one has ever said different.  But you mentioned Morton…didn’t exactly get a huge deal.

The Astros just gave Abreu the most money they have given to a FA during this run.

Where the Os need to show they will spend is in the trade market.

Astros took on Verlanders contract (what was left on it) when he was “slumping”.  Os need to make moves like that. Don’t have the long term stuff weighing you down and the salaries are likely less because they were deals signed in markets not as big as right now.

Morton got a fairly high AAV, but not many years because he was 37 going into the deal. Scherzer, my other example, signed a 7 year deal. 

Is anyone hoping for the team to do something other than bolster spots? Is signing any single free agent, at any price, doing anything other than bolstering a spot? I don't expect them to act like the '97 Marlins, I just want them to take advantage of this payroll flexibility Elias keeps talking about to make the team better. A Verlander-style trade is fine by me (worth noting that Verlander stuck around for five years, so that didn't turn out to be very short term). Ideally though, it would have been great to sign one of the better pitchers rather than have to now give up prospects to acquire their equivalents. 

[deward]

22 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Is it just possible that we aren't signing this marginal talent that is getting over paid because Elias is working hard to get a real difference maker?  For example we probably don't have it within the budget to overpay for a Taillon type and still be in serious negotiations with Rodon or Correa.  Now I know this is a stretch to even consider this but there is certainly enough smoke out there to say we are talking to these types.  

The thing I would be concerned about is if the scenario above could in some universe be correct, Elias must really feel like he has a shot at something big because other options are quickly dissipating. 

I know being an O's fan we are in the mindset of same old O's, unwilling to pay market value so now time to go dumpster diving.  I guess time will tell.   

Could be. The jury is still out, for sure. I agree that I'm coming from many years of hard-earned skepticism when I look at what this team does and says.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, deward said:

Morton got a fairly high AAV, but not many years because he was 37 going into the deal. Scherzer, my other example, signed a 7 year deal. 

Is anyone hoping for the team to do something other than bolster spots? Is signing any single free agent, at any price, doing anything other than bolstering a spot? I don't expect them to act like the '97 Marlins, I just want them to take advantage of this payroll flexibility Elias keeps talking about to make the team better. A Verlander-style trade is fine by me (worth noting that Verlander stuck around for five years, so that didn't turn out to be very short term). Ideally though, it would have been great to sign one of the better pitchers rather than have to now give up prospects to acquire their equivalents. 

It depends on what prospects you have to give up. 
 

[Moose Milligan]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

Yes and a sign that the Angelos’ pulled the budget increase from under him. Bet he darts at his 1st opportunity. The ownership group of this team is a disgrace. 

Let's take it down a notch.

It's been pointed out that the budget increase will be likely spent on arbitration cases.  

I don't believe what I'm reading here.  We've got guys like Adley, Gunnar, G-Rod and a lot of other prospects that look like they could contribute, we've finally made inroads into the Dominican and look to have a strong presence there, we just won WAY more games this past season than anyone thought we were going to and people are UPSET BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT SPENDING A LOT OF MONEY IN FREE AGENCY.

 

[eddie83]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It depends on what prospects you have to give up. 
 

The SP staff is thin. If Elias is not willing to deal a prospect yet than so be it. I care whether a move works, not how much a player gets. I can’t fathom him not adding another arm. It would be inexcusable. 
 

I also think this lineup needs some tweaking. He has plenty of time left to do both. I hope he does.