Connolly: Don’t see the Os going beyond 2-3 years

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

When my wife and daughter have gift cards they use it right away. I don’t. I wait to use them when I really want something. I always pick on them.  
 

I am not naive. I don’t expect next off-season they go wild either. The key with spending with this team is keeping our own. It will be a colossal failure on John Angelo’s’ legacy if players like Adley are gone in 5 years. Spend on our own. Add smartly in FA. Outsmart people, not outspend them. That is not an excuse not to improve the team though. 

If you are Adley or Gunnar or for that matter Jackson Holliday and you are watching this unfold especially after what they did last season in terms of punting on competing (by subtracting from an already over-performing roster). Are you saying to yourself "It sure looks like our management and ownership are doing everything in their power to win and get us to a World Series?" Or are you scratching your head like many fans are doing saying "what in the world are we doing?"

We are just fans, this is these guys careers where they have limited windows. This will be the second year of Adley's career. I don't know how many years he's going to be cool with this. I wouldn't bet on many. These guys are uber competitive and want to win. And they want they org to do everything they can to put the pieces around them for that. Right now it's not looking like the Orioles would be a good bet to get that done. 

[geschinger]

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That's the thing there is no way to control what will happen in 2026 and beyond. Rodriguez could blowout an elbow, Rutchsman could suffer a knee injury, someone else could regress, etc.

So because we can't control what will happen in 2026 we should go ahead and saddle the teams with bad contracts?  Doesn't seem logical.

9 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Punting on free agency is putting the team at a competitive disadvantage no matter how you slice it. There are only a certain number of ways that you can improve your club and this is one. This is as bad of a strategy as when we didn't do international scouting/signings or have a Dominican program.

The most talented team in baseball and reigning world champions consistently improve their teams without long term deals in FA.  But yeah, such an awful strategy that another team takling that approach has only been the best team in baseball for an extended period of time with no signs of regression in the immediate future.

They don't have bad contracts on their books and therefore are focusing on a tiny window followed by a need to blow it up and start over.

Edited December 8, 2022 by geschinger

[Bemorewins]

18 minutes ago, jcaponio said:

These are valid questions. I’m not saying this is a playoff team as currently constructed. 

But that has absolutely nothing to do with interpreting Elias’s comment that “the goal is to be a playoff team” as 2023 being a punt year. 

Elias is no fool, he knows like all or should I say most people know, as currently constructed the Orioles don't have a great chance to make the playoffs. All it takes is a simple examination of the competition. I hate to say this, but right now we just aren't good enough.

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

So you think it takes magic fairy dust to think that full seasons of Rutschman and Henderson will result in more wins?  

No, I think it takes some very dark tinted orange colored lenses to look through to not think that there won't be members of our rotation or bullpen who won't suffer regression. Do you think Kramer, Bradish, Voth, Wells, Tate, Perez, Akin, and Bautista will all duplicate or improve upon their successes of 2022?

[Aristotelian]

16 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I guess we will see. But have you looked on Twitter or just look around on this message board. Most people I am seeing are not saying yeah it's okay that we are totally botching free agency and going back on promises made because we have a young pipleline of prospects. That in and of itself is not going to sufficiently satisfy fans, not with this orgs history.

The last time we failed because again ownership interference. Paying the wrong players as you mentioned (Davis and Trumbo) instead of the truly great one Machado. Going cheap on paying the wrong pitchers which in turn caused us to forfeit first round picks. Making silly trades to give up assets in years when we had no shot at winning a world series. We did a WHOLE LOT WRONG during those years.

Up until this point we had been doing a WHOLE LOT RIGHT. But to completely punt on free agency with a payroll as low as ours in self-sabotage. It's as bad as when we used to refuse to build an international program. Like you can't completely cut yourself off from one of the few ways to add talent. You are putting yourself at an unnecessary competitive disadvantage.

The thing about the Tampa model (and the A's prior to them) it is to alienating to fans. If that's the model we are going for, get used to a young team who is consistently good but never good enough, who will play in front of an empty stadium. 

Most people/fans (especially not the diehards) will not take the time and energy to relearn and reinvest in a roster every 2/3 years. That model historically speaking has never drawn fans. You gotta do more than be competitive. The Ravens will find this out if they decide to get rid of Jackson. The names on the back of the jersey matter to many fans (especially to young fans and non-die hards). You gotta give them somebody to root for/invest in/get to know/follow. That's why I knew that the Yankees were never going to let Judge walk. If he left what do you think would have happened to all those people, especially kids wearing those 99 shirts? Have you ever been to a game in Yankee stadium or heck for that matter Camden Yards when he/they are in town? 99 shirts everywhere!

Without that you are simply not relevant in your market.

I agree to a point. Like I said, I'd like to see a pivot. But then again I am seeing these contracts, and, knowing that we would have to pay 10% more, there is not one where I am like, "I wish we did a wow offer to get that guy."

All the stuff you say is true, but it is built into a system with no salary cap and massive discrepancies between markets. Open market bidding wars are not our comparative advantage.

Anyway, I for one love to root for a home grown team of up and coming stars like we had in '83 and '89 when I came of age with the game. That's what I see us getting back to and it's pretty cool.

Also it is still early. Lots of guys still in the board. Sounds like we are still in on some guys but they may be targeted value plays like Conforto or Wacha types. Maybe that is not good enough for the fans but if we could get a couple wins from FA's, and say 6 wins from Grayson, Gunnar, and Cowser/Hall/Means, that's probably good enough for a wild card and maybe more, without doing anything to risk the future.

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, geschinger said:

So because we can't control what will happen in 2026 we should go ahead and saddle the teams with bad contracts?  Doesn't seem logical.

The most talented team in baseball and reigning world champions consistently improve their teams without long term deals in FA.  But yeah, such an awful strategy that another team takling that approach has only been the best team in baseball for an extended period of time with no signs of regression in the immediate future.

They don't have bad contracts on their books and therefore are focusing on a tiny window followed by a need to blow it up and start over.

If you believe with this current ownership group leading the way, that we can repeat the successes of the Houston Astros all I can say is you are entitled to your opinion like anyone else. And I wish I had that much optimism and hope. 

There is a reason that is a singular model.  If it was easily repeatable a lot more would try it. 

If we can copy and paste that model and it works to perfection and we win multiple World Series I will be beyond the moon and will apologize to you every chance that I get for ever doubting you. 

[Aristotelian]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you are Adley or Gunnar or for that matter Jackson Holliday and you are watching this unfold especially after what they did last season in terms of punting on competing (by subtracting from an already over-performing roster). Are you saying to yourself "It sure looks like our management and ownership are doing everything in their power to win and get us to a World Series?" Or are you scratching your head like many fans are doing saying "what in the world are we doing?"

We are just fans, this is these guys careers where they have limited windows. This will be the second year of Adley's career. I don't know how many years he's going to be cool with this. I wouldn't bet on many. These guys are uber competitive and want to win. And they want they org to do everything they can to put the pieces around them for that. Right now it's not looking like the Orioles would be a good bet to get that done. 

From what I've seen Gunnar and Adley seem to be pretty happy with the direction of the organization. Gunnar's agent Boras also seems pretty impressed with Elias this off-season, for whatever reason.

[turtlebowl]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you are Adley or Gunnar or for that matter Jackson Holliday and you are watching this unfold especially after what they did last season in terms of punting on competing (by subtracting from an already over-performing roster). Are you saying to yourself "It sure looks like our management and ownership are doing everything in their power to win and get us to a World Series?" Or are you scratching your head like many fans are doing saying "what in the world are we doing?"

We are just fans, this is these guys careers where they have limited windows. This will be the second year of Adley's career. I don't know how many years he's going to be cool with this. I wouldn't bet on many. These guys are uber competitive and want to win. And they want they org to do everything they can to put the pieces around them for that. Right now it's not looking like the Orioles would be a good bet to get that done. 

Sorry but I’m not buying this. These young players have come up through the system together. They seem to get along and have good chemistry. These guys being buds to me means in some ways they don’t want new players being brought in from outside the organization because it could affect them or one their buddies opportunity to be a starting player next season. I’m immediately thinking of Stowers or Vavra. 
 

Three or four years from now I believe these same players could start to get frustrated if they are established starters and not competitive as a team. Right now though, they are happy to be where they are and excited to become established major league players.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

From what I've seen Gunnar and Adley seem to be pretty happy with the direction of the organization. Gunnar's agent Boras also seems pretty impressed with Elias this off-season, for whatever reason.

To add to this, every single prospect in the system is stoked about the talent that surrounds them and is really buying into what the organization is putting together.   I think Adley and Gunnar, to this point are stoked about playing with Stowers, Vavra, Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, Norby, etc.  These guys talk to each other, play video games with each other.   What could be better than playing and winning ML baseball games with your buddies.  Of course, winning is the most fun but we are headed in the right direction and this offseason is far from over.  

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I agree to a point. Like I said, I'd like to see a pivot. But then again I am seeing these contracts, and, knowing that we would have to pay 10% more, there is not one where I am like, "I wish we did a wow offer to get that guy."

All the stuff you say is true, but it is built into a system with no salary cap and massive discrepancies between markets. Open market bidding wars are not our comparative advantage.

Anyway, I for one love to root for a home grown team of up and coming stars like we had in '83 and '89 when I came of age with the game. That's what I see us getting back to and it's pretty cool.

Also it is still early. Lots of guys still in the board. Sounds like we are still in on some guys but they may be targeted value plays like Conforto or Wacha types. Maybe that is not good enough for the fans but if we could get a couple wins from FA's, and say 6 wins from Grayson, Gunnar, and Cowser/Hall/Means, that's probably good enough for a wild card and maybe more, without doing anything to risk the future.

The problem with value shopping is timing. That is not what we need right now. The makeup of our roster is of such that we don't need to add to the edges. We have plenty of depth. The problem is we do not have a pitcher who can matchup in a big series against Cole, Cortes, McClanahan, Bieber, Manoah, Castillo, Valdez, etc.

Even if you think that Rodriguez will be one, the problem is most of the teams that we will be competing with for the playoffs and in the playoffs have 2.

The other problem with our team is that we don't have someone to hit in between Mullins/Adley/Gunnnar and Santander and Mountcastle. Someone who get's onbase at a high enough clip to meaningfully increase our run production. Santander and Mountcastle don't have the plate discipline or onbase skills to be top 4 hitters on a championship contending team. 

Those are the two spots that we need most. Big time pitcher and reliable middle of the order hitter. Wacha and Conforto don't fit that bill.

Again I ask, if we are to make a wildcard who are we leapfrogging with the roster as currently constructed to get there?

[geschinger]

8 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If you believe with this current ownership group leading the way, that we can repeat the successes of the Houston Astros all I can say is you are entitled to your opinion like anyone else. And I wish I had that much optimism and hope. 

There is a reason that is a singular model.  If it was easily repeatable a lot more would try it. 

If we can copy and paste that model and it works to perfection and we win multiple World Series I will be beyond the moon and will apologize to you every chance that I get for ever doubting you. 

Some other teams seemed to be on their way to trying it but didn't stick with it or failed in it's implementation.

Ownership could still step in and sabotage it but to this point one cannot argue that the Orioles haven't been extrodinarily successful with the tank and farm system rebuild.  Elias has arguably learned from some of the mistakes and been even more successful in stocking the farm system in his second chance of implementing the approach. 

I just don't understand why if he's been so successful in phase one that anyone would want to blow that up and change course instead of wanting to give him a shot to implement phase two.  Usually when a plan seems to be working it's wise to stick with that plan instead of abandoning it.

[Sports Guy]

You guys didn’t want them to go for it in 2022 because “it was a year too early”. That proved to be wrong.

This year, if they don’t make real upgrades and go for it, what happens if the team regresses and wins 75 games? Will they “go for it” next offseason or will they need another season of evaluation?

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

From what I've seen Gunnar and Adley seem to be pretty happy with the direction of the organization. Gunnar's agent Boras also seems pretty impressed with Elias this off-season, for whatever reason.

Is he really impressed or using the Orioles talk as a way to add bidders for his clients? It's in his interest to talk up every team. The more suitors the better it is for him and his clients.

As far as Gunnar and Adley, I ask from a rational standpoint why would they be happy with what's happening? Are you telling me that they are like no please don't add any really good players because they might have bad contracts after 2026? Or is it more reasonable for them to think, I wonder why everyone else is adding to their team and we are standing pat?

Hey I don't know them personally and never have talked to them so maybe you are right? It just doesn't make a lot of rational sense for competitors to be worried more about how much money the org saves so the owner can make rather than how they can win more games by having better players arounf them.

[Aristotelian]

6 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Again I ask, if we are to make a wildcard who are we leapfrogging with the roster as currently constructed to get there?

We were only 3 back of Tampa. 6 wins from the prospects and one-year FA's would get us there. 

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, turtlebowl said:

Sorry but I’m not buying this. These young players have come up through the system together. They seem to get along and have good chemistry. These guys being buds to me means in some ways they don’t want new players being brought in from outside the organization because it could affect them or one their buddies opportunity to be a starting player next season. I’m immediately thinking of Stowers or Vavra. 
 

Three or four years from now I believe these same players could start to get frustrated if they are established starters and not competitive as a team. Right now though, they are happy to be where they are and excited to become established major league players.

So you think given a choice they would rather have "a buddy" like Stowers or a superstar like Judge to play with? (Not that we were ever going to pay that kind of money for Judge.)

This may be how highschoolers or amateurs think. But there us absolutely NO WAY the professional athletes have that kind of mindset. Most want 2/3 things. 1) The most money the can 2) Individual accolades 3) Winning as much as they can

It's not always in that order and I don't know any of these guys personally so maybe you are right. But I know I almost laughed out loud when I read that first paragraph.

By the way, Adley is already an established big league player. I'm sure his personal goals for himself this coming season are a lot higher than that. He is a 1/1 player who people said was Major League ready right out of college. Many have said that he will be the best catcher in the game soon. I don't think he's just happy to be in the big leagues and play with his buds.