Taking Elias and Hyde’s comments at face value

[tabletop]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Apparently, Stowers isn't a nugget.  They talk about acquiring a player who will be on the level of Hays/Mullins/Santander and working that player into the 9 man everyday lineup.   That's not good for Stowers.

Yeah, it does seem that way. It's very odd to me considering his slash line of .253/.306/.418 in 34 games where he was in and out of the lineup randomly was better than Hays who played every day. It's not even that far off Santander's slash line and he was the #3 hitter last year.

[Aristotelian]

This seems to be Roch's interpretation of the Elias quotes, from his post today:

This is the only major league deal brought back to Baltimore. There will be others before opening day.

Trust me on this. Or better yet, trust the process.

[jcaponio]

9 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

The LH bat is interesting, especially since Elias said they're looking for one of the caliber that they would slot into the opening day lineup. Elias also said they are conscious of blocking prospects, and anybody they add is going to make it harder for Cowser to make his way into the lineup this season, in addition to taking ABs away from either Hays or Stowers (and Vavra, if they think he's an OF and not a 2B). 

If the LH bat they add can play 1B or they think Santander, Stowers or Adley can play 1B, then they could also cut into Mountcastle's ABs, but I think only a handful of the available FAs fit that description.

Reading between the lines I think they are only looking for a 1 yr deal for the LH bat.  Looking at the LF OF/1B/DH available:

• Nimmo - not going to happen.
• Benintendi - going to get an expensive multi-year deal, so no.
• Profar - likely to get a multi-year deal given age and strong platform year, but he could be on the table.
• Conforto - perhaps the best case scenario, if he's looking for a 1-yr deal to then re-enter FA next year.
• Gallo - likely looking for a 1-yr deal similar to Conforto, with the positive that he may have 1B flexibility, but coming off a truly horrific 2022 season.
• Brantley - I think the most likely guy we end up with, given he will get a 1 yr deal, probably won't demand every day ABs given age, and has continued to be a very good hitter for a long time.
• Belt - similar to Brantley, but a bigger injury concern and showed much more drop off last year.
• Peralta - maybe the last fall back option, but don't see the benefit to adding him to take ABs away from Stowers.
• Carpenter - can definitely still hit, but much more of a bench bat than "Opening Day starter" at this stage.

I don't see anybody else that would meaningfully slot above Franchy Cordero on the depth chart. There's a handful of other guys similarly around the cheap 1-yr deal / MiL contract line, all of which should also definitely be behind Stowers in the Opening Day lineup so not really fitting the description that Elias provided.

Altogether, I'll be disappointed if our only moves are to add Gibson, one of the above, and a middling SP.  We aren't going to be projected to even eclipse our 83 wins from last year if those are our only moves.

Great post. I think Brantley would be the best fit assuming health, but I've read that he's basically already agreed to go back to Houston once his medicals check out. I would also be happy with Profar. 

[geschinger]

4 minutes ago, tabletop said:

So if last year wasn't a fluke why are they openly saying they don't think they can compete for the AL East this year and are hoping to make the playoffs but aren't going to do anything to make the playoffs that could potentially have a negative impact on the 2024 and beyond teams?

Lowering expectations.  If the expectation is set that winning the division is the expectation and a month into the season they young guys / rookies are going through a bit of a sophmore slump or struggling to acclimate to MLB there is more pressure on them and then to sit them if they are hurting the team's W/L record.  IMO Under promise / over deliver is better - even when it comes to GM/Coach speak.

 

[Pickles]

Just now, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There is no "quibbling" on the matter. Gibson is a back of the rotation starter, a decade of data says so- 4.52 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP.

An interesting idea, but Elias's comments seem to make adding a bat sound like a lower priority. I do wonder who would be out there though. Winker would have been the most obvious candidate but he has already been moved.

94+ ERA is almost average for a starter.  I believe 2022 was referenced recently and the average was 97+ for a starter.  He's been ever so slightly below average starter for a decade.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

There is no "quibbling" on the matter. Gibson is a back of the rotation starter, a decade of data says so- 4.52 ERA, 94 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP.

An interesting idea, but Elias's comments seem to make adding a bat sound like a lower priority. I do wonder who would be out there though. Winker would have been the most obvious candidate but he has already been moved.

Yes, a bat may be the lower priority (as it should be btw) but it’s still important.

I still feel the organization is potentially making a huge mistake if they don’t trade some of this IF depth that they have.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

94+ ERA is almost average for a starter.  I believe 2022 was referenced recently and the average was 97+ for a starter.  He's been ever so slightly below average starter for a decade.

Slightly below average doesn’t equal middle of the rotation, not if you are truly trying to win. It may be MOR on some staffs that suck but shouldn’t be for us.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Pickles]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Slightly below average doesn’t equal middle of the rotation.

Average would.  The difference between 94 and 97 is pretty negligible.  

[wildcard]

Seems like Elias was in on Rodon at 5 years  but Boras now wants 6 or 7.  Doesn't look like any club has offered that yet.

Seems like Elias was in on Bassitt at 3 years but now he wants 4.   I have not heard any  team has gone 4 yet so the O's may still be in on him.

Eovaldi and Syndergaard sound like  fall backs if the other two do not happen. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by wildcard

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Pickles said:

94+ ERA is almost average for a starter.  I believe 2022 was referenced recently and the average was 97+ for a starter.  He's been ever so slightly below average starter for a decade.

He has been significantly worse than that 94 ERA+ in 2 of the last 3 years and has finished half of his 10 MLB seasons with an ERA north of 5.00, and he is heading into his age 35 season. As Sports Guy said, it's perfectly plausible that he is worse than 2022 Lyles for us next year.

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, a bat may be the lower priority (as it should be btw) but it’s still important.

I still feel the organization is potentially making a huge mistake if they don’t trade some of this IF depth that they have.  

This really does seem like the time to cash in on somebody while everyone's stock is so high. I would be perfectly okay with trading Mateo or Urias for a corner bat and giving the OD 2B job to Westburg.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes they upgraded but it’s a minimal upgrade and it’s very possible that even though Gibson is better, that he is equal or worse to what Lyles was in 2022.

Agreed.  They need to do more on the pitching front.  Elias has basically said this.  I’m just amazed at how many posters are acting as though the offseason is over already, though.  We’ll see what else they do, and judge it then.  I’m not going to make any assumptions at all about who (if anyone) they’ll get, how much they’ll pay them, or how many years it will be.  I have my guesses, but who knows?  I see no reason to be either satisfied, disappointed or angry yet.  That’s TBD.

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, waroriole said:

It sounded like he wants at least 10 for 9 spots. It’s the smart approach, in case of injuries, underperformance, or just to give guys more rest. 

Ok.  With no injuries it sounds like Stowers would be the odd man out.

[Sports Guy]

Dillon Tate for Jake McCarthy?

Dbacks need RH relief help and they have a lot of OFers to trade from.

McCarthy is a middling defender with decent offensive upside. He’s left handed and cheap. 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Seems like Elias was in on Rodon at 5 years  but Boras now wants 6 or 7.  Doesn't look like any club has offered that yet.

Seems like Elias was in on Bassitt at 3 years but now he wants 4.   I have not heard any  team as gone 4 yet so the O's may still be in on him.

Eovaldi and Syndergaard sound like  fall backs if the other two do not happen. 

What indication do you have on those “seems”?

[CaptainRedbeard]

22 minutes ago, jcaponio said:

Great post. I think Brantley would be the best fit assuming health, but I've read that he's basically already agreed to go back to Houston once his medicals check out. I would also be happy with Profar. 

Interesting - where did you see that? This is the latest I see on Brantley and the Astros, from Monday:

Quote

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Astros are eyeing free agent outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Rosenthal adds that Houston is also looking at fellow free agent outfielders Michael Brantley and Michael Conforto. All three are coming off significant injuries. Benintendi suffered a season-ending fractured hamate bone in his right hand in early September with the Yankees. Brantley went down in late June with a season-ending right shoulder injury and Conforto hasn't played since the 2021 season after undergoing right shoulder surgery last April.

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/baseball/mlb/player/19057/michael-brantley

The Astros are definitely in the same market for a LH hitter, but I think they're more likely to be looking at the higher end and Brantley is perhaps a fallback for them.  Given Alvarez is a poor defender, they're probably looking for somebody who can offer more defensively than Brantley, who was solid there in his prime but is now going to be 36.