Orioles sign Adam Frazier

[DrinkinWithFermi]

I don't think Elias is stupid or that he thinks he's smarter than everyone else, I just think he isn't particularly concerned with contending in 2023 for whatever reason. 

[Going Underground]

22 minutes ago, owknows said:

On the whole I'd say Elias' good decisions far outweigh his bad ones.

But he is subject to the same human failings as the rest of us.

I thought he was the Orange Genius or is that some other guy.?

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

If he's making poor decisions systemically because he's driven by his ego and need to demonstrate his superior intellect (your claim) then that's a pathology.

Once again, I stated that on the whole Elias makes FAR more good decisions than bad ones.

That he's probably the best draft manager the organization has ever seen.

But that he is human, and therefore subject to human failings.

And that the human failing called ego probably paid a role in 4 decisions that I can find no rational explanation for. The decisions to me, appeared to be motivated by the desire to tease success out of players  based on analytical nuance. When those players were not as good as the ones he already had.

The specific decisions being Brett Phillips, Aguilar, sticking with Odor, and now Frazier.

Would I fire Elias for these failings? Of course not.

Do I think they make him a bad GM? No.

But objectively these were bad decisions, as happen from time to time... even with good people.

The hyperbolic claptrap you've decided to assign to things beyond what I've actually said, are your strawman to deal with.

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

Once again, I stated that on the whole Elias makes FAR more good decisions than bad ones.

That he's probably the best draft manager the organization has ever seen.

But that he is human, and therefore subject to human failings.

And that the human failing called ego probably paid a role in 4 decisions that I can find no rational explanation for. The decisions to me, appeared to be motivated by the desire to tease success out of players  based on analytical nuance. When those players were not as good as the ones he already had.

The specific decisions being Brett Phillips, Aguilar, sticking with Odor, and now Frazier.

Would I fire Elias for these failings? Of course not.

Do I think they make him a bad GM? No.

But objectively these were bad decisions, as happen from time to time... even with good people.

The hyperbolic claptrap you've decided to assign to things beyond what I've actually said, are your strawman to deal with.

 

You're the one assigning his bad decisions, or at least the ones that you don't like, to his ego.  You did that.  Not me.

 

[owknows]

9 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Wildly overblown.

Vavra and Stowers got a combined 203 PAs.  Aguilar and Phillips got 68.

Vavra and Stowers were not rotting on the bench as Aguilar and Phillips stole all the glory.

What value did Aguilar and Phillips objectively provide to the Orioles?

What value did keeping Odor in the lineup after the all star break?

And I guess we'll see what value Frazier provides.

But it is my assertion that Odor, Aguilar, and Phillips were net negatives to the team. Particularly after the all star break. I would venture a guess that I could dig up quite a few posts of yours saying the same thing. That these were bad decisions.

And of course it is objectively true.

But I guess we'll try to ignore that in support of the creation of a hyperbolic strawman.

 

[owknows]

4 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're the one assigning his bad decisions, or at least the ones that you don't like, to his ego.  You did that.  Not me.

 

Why do you think he signed Phillips, Aguilar, and stuck with Odor?

Because they were good baseball decisions?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

What value did Aguilar and Phillips objectively provide to the Orioles?

What value did keeping Odor in the lineup after the all star break?

And I guess we'll see what value Frazier provides.

But it is my assertion that Odor, Aguilar, and Phillips were net negatives to the team. Particularly after the all star break. I would venture a guess that I could dig up quite a few posts of yours saying the same thing. That these were bad decisions.

And of course it is objectively true.

But I guess we'll try to ignore that in support of the creation of a hyperbolic strawman.

 

No the only hyperbole here is your claims to have special insight into the pathologies that drive Elias' decision-making.  You might not like that language, or that classification of what you're doing, but it is exactly what you're doing.

I don't agree with every decision the man makes- including this one!  Though I still think a trade's coming that will bring a lot of clarity to the situation.

However, it's one thing to criticize the move based on Frazier's performance, as many have, or based on Frazier's fit/neccessity, as many more have, and very sympathetically to my mind.

It's quite another to attribute it to his being an idiot, or hiring and being guided by idiots (not that you did that), or his "ego" and "need to be the smartest guy in the room."  That's baseless speculation with no evidence, and no way of even gathering evidence or testing it as a hypothesis.  

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, owknows said:

Why do you think he signed Phillips, Aguilar, and stuck with Odor?

Because they were good baseball decisions?

1) I think he had his reasons.

2) These decisions are being wildly overblown.  They're 25th/26th man roster decisions.  Literally every team that has ever existed has employed guys who weren't good.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think those are very legitimate concerns.  He should be better than Odor almost no matter what (and a completely different style of player), but that doesn’t mean he’ll be good enough to warrant playing him over the younger guys.   

When the O’s make a move that on the surface doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, I generally assume that there’s something they know or think, that I’m unaware of.  I don’t assume it’s because they can’t read or understand the publicly available information that any fan can read and understand.   We’ll see about this one.  
 

 

The problem with that thinking is we now evidence with Odor, Chirinos (to a lesser extent) and Aguilar that they don't always know better. I had the same thoughts about them initially, but I could not understand the Odor signing and thought they would just kick the tires. Instead, he was the full time second baseman all season.

I clearly don't like this signing, but I do think they must have a different evaluation system then we have through statcast and his production. My issue is Elias is stubborn when it comes to his guys/signings. He'll keep sending his guys out no matter how much every metric says he shouldn't. Last year he played Odor and Aguilar when they should not have been playing for no other reason then he was his guys. Same thing with Rio Ruiz when they amazingly started him at 2B with barely any experience.  ]

I'm getting to the point that Elias/Sig are playing this game of "I'm smarter than the rest of you" and that includes other GMs.

This offseason is clearly not over so we can't grade this offseason, but so far, their signings leave a lot to be desired and certainly do not move the needle much for a team that overachieved last year.

Also, they are squashing out the regular fans excitement. for next year. They had the perfect opportunity to make a splash with a #1-#2 starter or MOO, but so far they got another #4-#5 option and slow, slap-hitting 2B/OF who happens to bat left-handed.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not absurd. Absurd is thinking it’s wise to pay 8M for 1 WAr. 1 WAR players aren’t hard to find. You should be able to produce those guys for nothing.  

Ortiz could play 2B right now and be worth 2 WAR just on defense alone.

[owknows]

Just now, Pickles said:

1) I think he had his reasons.

2) These decisions are being wildly overblown.  They're 25th/26th man roster decisions.  Literally every team that has ever existed has employed guys who weren't good.

They are not being "blown" at all... over or otherwise.

I stated that they were bad decisions. I did not assign a magnitude.

I do not think they were catastrophically bad decisions. And didn't state so.

In fact, I have categorically stated that Elias' good decisions far outweigh his bad ones. (making it clear that I think he brings a powerful net positive benefit to the organization).

But I did state that these decisions were bad ones. Bad enough in fact, that nearly EVERYONE here was baffled by them. Including I would be willing to wager a considerable sum... YOU.

So I asked myself what could make a man who is obviously very talented...and otherwise a great steward of baseball talent... make decisions (however minor their impact) that are almost universally recognized as bad baseball decisions?

And the conclusion I came to, was that his desire to defy the obvious odds with analytical prowess blinded him to what otherwise would have been a simple commonsense decision.

Feel free to criticize this point if you wish.

Try to resist the urge to conflate it with your wild hyperbolic imagination and assign it to me.

[Tony-OH]

50 minutes ago, owknows said:

On the whole I'd say Elias' good decisions far outweigh his bad ones.

But he is subject to the same human failings as the rest of us.

I'm never quite sure why some people think Elias in infallible. We can believe that Elias has done some very good things for this organization while also believing he's failing at other portions of his job. 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, owknows said:

They are not being "blown" at all... over or otherwise.

I stated that they were bad decisions. I did not assign a magnitude.

I do not think they were catastrophically bad decisions. And didn't state so.

In fact, I have categorically stated that Elias' good decisions far outweigh his bad ones. (making it clear that I think he brings a powerful net positive benefit to the organization).

But I did state that these decisions were bad ones. Bad enough in fact, that nearly EVERYONE here was baffled by them. Including I would be willing to wager a considerable sum... YOU.

So I asked myself what could make a man who is obviously very talented...and otherwise a great steward of baseball talent... make decisions (however minor their impact) that are almost universally recognized as bad baseball decisions?

And the conclusion I came to, was that his desire to defy the obvious odds with analytical prowess blinded him to what otherwise would have been a simple commonsense decision.

Feel free to criticize this point if you wish.

Try to resist the urge to conflate it with your wild hyperbolic imagination and assign it to me.

I just want to clarify, because you keep doing exactly what I say you're doing: What is hyperbolic about what I'm saying?  You keep claiming Elias is driven to make decisions based on a pathological need to feed his ego.   You keep claiming exactly that and when I repeat it back to you, you claim I'm being hyperbolic.

As far as the rest, my default position is very similar to Frobby's: When they make decisions that I don't understand, I assume they have information I am not privy to.  I think that is a far more reasonable position to take than to try to ascribe it to a personal failing or a psychological pathology.

[Tony-OH]

28 minutes ago, owknows said:

Once again, I stated that on the whole Elias makes FAR more good decisions than bad ones.

That he's probably the best draft manager the organization has ever seen.

But that he is human, and therefore subject to human failings.

And that the human failing called ego probably paid a role in 4 decisions that I can find no rational explanation for. The decisions to me, appeared to be motivated by the desire to tease success out of players  based on analytical nuance. When those players were not as good as the ones he already had.

The specific decisions being Brett Phillips, Aguilar, sticking with Odor, and now Frazier.

Would I fire Elias for these failings? Of course not.

Do I think they make him a bad GM? No.

But objectively these were bad decisions, as happen from time to time... even with good people.

The hyperbolic claptrap you've decided to assign to things beyond what I've actually said, are your strawman to deal with.

 

Well said. I could not have said it better. 

Elias is a smart guy and he's done some really good things to set this organization up for success for a long time. BUT, what he hasn't shown yet is the ability to correctly add major league talent into his organization through trades or free agents that will make this team a true contender.

Imagine if Elias went out and got a real second baseman last offseason instead of Odor? What if we would have won 2 or 3 more games? 

At the end of the day, no one expected the Orioles to contend for a playoff spot and when they were unexpectedly in the race in August. Phillips and Aguilar was how he decided to make his team better. 

At the end of the day, we don't know if Elias can take that next step as a GM and add the right right players through FA and trades to make this team a true contender. 

 

[Slight Upward Arc]

1 minute ago, Pickles said:

I just want to clarify, because you keep doing exactly what I say you're doing: What is hyperbolic about what I'm saying?  You keep claiming Elias is driven to make decisions based on a pathological need to feed his ego.   You keep claiming exactly that and when I repeat it back to you, you claim I'm being hyperbolic.

As far as the rest, my default position is very similar to Frobby's: When they make decisions that I don't understand, I assume they have information I am not privy to.  I think that is a far more reasonable position to take than to try to ascribe it to a personal failing or a psychological pathology.

Literally everyone feeds their ego in some way, shape or form. You think you’ve got some kind of “gotcha” with this whole line of posts this morning, but I honestly don’t get it. Have you done any reading as to how ego’s work? Give it a break. Pretty sure everyone know where you and RZNJ stand, and you guys know where others stand. You’re feeding your ego by continuing to make these posts.