Connolly on Mullins value

[theobird]

21 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Appreciate the out of the box thinking, but I don't think Mateo has that bat to justify playing him in the OF. You need more production from that position unless your lineup is absolutely stacked and even then your CFer better be playing Jackie Bradley level defense. 

I was thinking paul Blair level defense. Lol, Jackie who? I do think mateo has the tools for CF, and I also think his bat will improve. The guy has power to go with the speed. I am very reluctant to move on from him, but I do want him moved out of the way in our middle infield where we have ridiculous prospect depth. 

[Big Mac]

48 minutes ago, theobird said:

I was thinking paul Blair level defense. Lol, Jackie who? I do think mateo has the tools for CF, and I also think his bat will improve. The guy has power to go with the speed. I am very reluctant to move on from him, but I do want him moved out of the way in our middle infield where we have ridiculous prospect depth. 

I don't understand the belief by some that Mateo's bat will improve.  He now has a large sample size of statcast data that shows very poor batted ball metrics and plate discipline.  The short summary of it all is he doesn't walk (12th percentile BB% in '22), chases a lot of pitches (10th percentile in chase rate), doesn't make much contact (12th percentile in whiff %) and when he does it isn't very good contact (12th percentile exit velocity, 13th percentile hard hit %).

Mateo has value but I think any illusions of him becoming more than the .650ish OPS guy he has been so far in his career is pretty much a pipe dream.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I don't understand the belief by some that Mateo's bat will improve.  He now has a large sample size of statcast data that shows very poor batted ball metrics and plate discipline.  The short summary of it all is he doesn't walk (12th percentile BB% in '22), chases a lot of pitches (10th percentile in chase rate), doesn't make much contact (12th percentile in whiff %) and when he does it isn't very good contact (12th percentile exit velocity, 13th percentile hard hit %).

Mateo has value but I think any illusions of him becoming more than the .650ish OPS guy he has been so far in his career is pretty much a pipe dream.   

People see a hot streak and think it's sustainable.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Glad to hear that Connolly thinks the O's are not trying to trade Mullins.  Not this off season any way.  I would not extend Mullins because his speed will diminish as he ages. 

Too early to say who replaces Mullins in center.     Cowser, Beavers, Fabian or others.  Just need to see more.  Right now I would think that Cowser fits better in left field.    Ortiz does not have the foot speed for CF.  Mateo  is on the same arbitration track as Mullins so he is not a candidate to succeed Mullins in center IMO.

 

Mullins isn’t that fast anymore.  He’s dropped from 29.4 ft/sec to 28.4.  That’s still 80th percentile overall, but just about average for a CF.  As I’ve said, there’s more to CF than just being fast.  

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

People see a hot streak and think it's sustainable.

Sometimes it is.  Cedric Mullins.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Sometimes it is.  Cedric Mullins.

Sometimes it isn't.  Cedric Mullins.

2021- 277/337/451  788

2022- 209/265/313  579

 

 

A player drops from a 137 OPS+ to a 104 OPS+ and you use him as an example of hot streaks being sustainable?

Odd choice.

 

 

[HakunaSakata]

20 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I don't understand the belief by some that Mateo's bat will improve.  He now has a large sample size of statcast data that shows very poor batted ball metrics and plate discipline.  The short summary of it all is he doesn't walk (12th percentile BB% in '22), chases a lot of pitches (10th percentile in chase rate), doesn't make much contact (12th percentile in whiff %) and when he does it isn't very good contact (12th percentile exit velocity, 13th percentile hard hit %).

Mateo has value but I think any illusions of him becoming more than the .650ish OPS guy he has been so far in his career is pretty much a pipe dream.   

I don't either and if other teams do we should absolutely be trying to sell him high. He's also 27. That's not exactly old, but it is when you consider the ages of our future stars/core players. Rutschman 24, Henderson 21, Rodriguez 23, etc. 

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Big Mac said:

I don't understand the belief by some that Mateo's bat will improve.  He now has a large sample size of statcast data that shows very poor batted ball metrics and plate discipline.  The short summary of it all is he doesn't walk (12th percentile BB% in '22), chases a lot of pitches (10th percentile in chase rate), doesn't make much contact (12th percentile in whiff %) and when he does it isn't very good contact (12th percentile exit velocity, 13th percentile hard hit %).

Mateo has value but I think any illusions of him becoming more than the .650ish OPS guy he has been so far in his career is pretty much a pipe dream.   

Nobody can say for sure that Mateo’s bat will improve, but I’d never say that a player with 770 career PA is incapable of improvement.   He’d need to improve his plate discipline - easier said than done, but even a modest improvement would pay dividends.  

[Orioles0615]

As soon as Nimmo signed that deal I said we are going to say bye bye to Mullins. Everyone knows the O's won't pay him that. Hell that probably still won't want to pay anyone at that point

[RZNJ]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sometimes it isn't.  Cedric Mullins.

2021- 277/337/451  788

2022- 209/265/313  579

 

 

A player drops from a 137 OPS+ to a 104 OPS+ and you use him as an example of hot streaks being sustainable?

Odd choice.

 

 

When does something become more than a streak?  What's your time frame?

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

When does something become more than a streak?  What's your time frame?

I don't know.

Just with Mullins it looks like his numbers against LHP were not sustainable.

Therefor he was an odd choice to use as an example.

[Big Mac]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nobody can say for sure that Mateo’s bat will improve, but I’d never say that a player with 770 career PA is incapable of improvement.   He’d need to improve his plate discipline - easier said than done, but even a modest improvement would pay dividends.  

Sure, incapable isn't how I would describe it.  I do think it is fair to say any significant improvement with the bat is not likely at this point in his career, the sample size of batted ball data is significant at this point.  Admittedly without doing the research to back it up, my guess would be that hitters that dramatically improve after 750-800 PAs had either shown some measure of plate discipline or decent underlying batted ball metrics prior to the improvement.   

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know.

Just with Mullins it looks like his numbers against LHP were not sustainable.

Therefor he was an odd choice to use as an example.

You don't know what you think is the correct time frame to constitute a streak?   It's subjective.  IMO, a season is not a streak.  He had a great season in  2021 and a good season in 2022 after being considered a 4th of, at best prior to the 2021 season.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

You don't know what you think is the correct time frame to constitute a streak?   It's subjective.  IMO, a season is not a streak.  He had a great season in  2021 and a good season in 2022 after being considered a 4th of, at best prior to the 2021 season.   

I don't know because it is going to vary from case for case and I don't feel like thinking about it too hard at the moment.

I don't have a set number written down someplace.

He had 224 at bats against LHP.  Is ~200 at bats a season?

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Can_of_corn

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't know because it is going to vary from case for case and I don't feel like thinking about it too hard at the moment.

I don't have a set number written down someplace.

He had 224 at bats against LHP.  Is ~200 at bats a season?

 

Forget it.