Eovaldi signed with Rangers per Moose

[interloper]

Ah well, let's just roll with our guys. Bring on spring training!

[forphase1]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What kinda team wants a guy pitching well to hang around for a third year?

Not the kind that is against giving up a draft pick AND possibly paying 21M a year.  Though, to be honest, nothing about the 3rd year is based on him pitching WELL, just pitching enough innings, regardless of the results of those innings.  Over the past 5 years he's been worth 0.6, -0.1, 1.2, 4.5 and 1.5 WAR.  If WAR is still valued at 1 WAR for 8M, then in only one year out of the past 5 did he come close or surpass the base salary of the 17M a year, much less the 21M it could be.  I'm not saying we shouldn't have signed him, but I'm certainly not going to break out the torches and pitchforks because we didn't sign a guy worth an average of 1.54 WAR per year over the past 5 years for 17-21M a year, plus the loss of a draft pick.  

I really wanted to see up shore up the pitching staff this offseason.  I'm disappointed we haven't at this point.  There were some deals I think we should have at least matched.  But this one I'm not sure this was one of them.

Edited December 28, 2022 by forphase1
Clarity

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not the kind that is against giving up a draft pick AND possibly paying 21M a year.  Though, to be honest, nothing about the 3rd year is based on him pitching WELL, just pitching enough innings, regardless of the results of those innings.  Over the past 5 years he's been worth 0.6, -0.1, 1.2, 4.5 and 1.5 WAR.  If WAR is still valued at 1 WAR for 8M, then in only one year out of the past 5 did he come close or surpass the base salary of the 17M a year, much less the 21M it could be.  I'm not saying we shouldn't have signed him, but I'm certainly not going to break out the torches and pitchforks because we didn't sign a guy worth an average of 1.54 WAR per year over the past 5 years for 17-21M a year, plus the loss of a draft pick.  

I really wanted to see up shore up the pitching staff this offseason.  I'm disappointed we haven't at this point.  There were some deals I think we should have at least matched.  But this one I'm not sure this was one of them.

You have to pitch some degree of well to accumulate that many innings.

[forphase1]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have to pitch some degree of well to accumulate that many innings.

Not really.  64 players last year pitched 150 or more innings last year, and while many if not most of them had sparkling ERAs, some were not great, including our own Kyle Gibson!  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not really.  64 players last year pitched 150 or more innings last year, and while many if not most of them had sparkling ERAs, some were not great, including our own Kyle Gibson!  

But if a guy isn't pitching well and he has a vesting option of this sort isn't it pretty easy to give him the quick hook and push back a few starts?

A guy in that situation that is really struggling won't get there.

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Not really.  64 players last year pitched 150 or more innings last year, and while many if not most of them had sparkling ERAs, some were not great, including our own Kyle Gibson!  

Considering Eovaldi’s injury issues and talent I think if he accumulates that many innings my guess is he performs well in the process. 
 

Is it possible he throws 180 innings and then a mediocre 120? Sure. 

[forphase1]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

But if a guy isn't pitching well and he has a vesting option of this sort isn't it pretty easy to give him the quick hook and push back a few starts?

A guy in that situation that is really struggling won't get there.

Sure it's possible.  But if he's healthy then there could be union considerations to take into account if they are clearly skipping him simply to keep him from getting paid more.  But even if he doesn't hit the bonuses and get the extra year and higher pay, only once in the past 5 years has he been worth 17M a year, which is the base pay without incentives.  

[deward]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Folks disagreed when I said it would be at most a tertiary concern. 

Of course the first step to signing any free agent pitcher is to actually make an offer.

I've been arguing with people since day one that they were being wildly over-optimistic about the impact of that wall on the team's fortunes. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Sure it's possible.  But if he's healthy then there could be union considerations to take into account if they are clearly skipping him simply to keep him from getting paid more.  But even if he doesn't hit the bonuses and get the extra year and higher pay, only once in the past 5 years has he been worth 17M a year, which is the base pay without incentives.  

When is the last time the Union won a case of that sort?

If he isn't pitching well it won't be a problem.

Not like they are going to pull an Eddie Cicotte on him.

[Just Regular]

If they don't deal one of their Vandy Guys to fix their LF (saw a Bryan Reynolds suggestion with Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker in the Gabriel Moreno role), they could also become priority plays in the back half of Year 2, or sooner.

I think Heaney is the 5th starter - M. Perez was so good for them last year I think he'll get Game 2.   

I suppose it is possible Games 4-6 before Orange Carpet day we could see a trio of Elias non-buys: Eovaldi, Heaney, deGrom.    I guess the growth of the Orioles offense to a playoff strength unit could look like showing itself able to outplay the Eovaldis and Heaneys of the world on the other side.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Just Regular

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

When is the last time the Union won a case of that sort?

If he isn't pitching well it won't be a problem.

Not like they are going to pull an Eddie Cicotte on him.

I can't recall the last time something like that was really adjudicated.  So I can't really answer that question.  But as I said, even without the innings bonuses and extra year, only once out of the past 5 years has he been worth 17M a year, the base salary.  I wish he was on our team, absolutely.  But I doubt he earns that contract, if WAR is still valued at 8M per WAR.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

I can't recall the last time something like that was really adjudicated.  So I can't really answer that question.  But as I said, even without the innings bonuses and extra year, only once out of the past 5 years has he been worth 17M a year, the base salary.  I wish he was on our team, absolutely.  But I doubt he earns that contract, if WAR is still valued at 8M per WAR.

Now I'm not saying this is the case here.

I really don't want to go to bat for Eovaldi.

Sometimes you have to pay more than you think something is worth in life.

Good deals aren't always available.

Sometimes you wait for the market to come to you and it never does.

[oriolediehard]

Eovaldi has just signed with the Rangers, I think 34mil 2 years.

[Moose Milligan]

“It’s only December 27th!”

I didn’t want Eovaldi but after missing out on…well, everyone else, I’d have been mildly pleased if they signed him. 
 

This off-season is a disaster. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now I'm not saying this is the case here.

I really don't want to go to bat for Eovaldi.

Sometimes you have to pay more than you think something is worth in life.

Good deals aren't always available.

Sometimes you wait for the market to come to you and it never does.

Also it’s a two year deal not a huge commitment and to the the larger market teams Eovaldi’s contract is a rounding error. Also the Orioles have caved in the past with Ubaldo and Cobb two pitchers the fans weren’t exactly clamoring for when they were signed to four year contracts.

I don’t think Elias is deciding on his own to be cheap it’s clearly coming from ownership. I can only hope it’s because the club is being sold soon, but it just might be the lawsuit between Lou Angelos and the rest of the family.