With the MLB additions are we a much better team than 2022?

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Talking about Frazier 

Oops …doing too many things at once. Apologies 

[Bahama O's Fan]

Do the additions make us MUCH better? No, I don't think so. Marginally better? Yes, perhaps. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

Do the additions make us MUCH better? No, I don't think so. Marginally better? Yes, perhaps. 

I think it's within the margin of randomness that is a season.

[ChosenOne21]

I think Gibson ends up slightly better pitching half his games at OPACY in front of better defense. My guess is he's worth 1-1.5 WAR

Frazier is probably roughly 1 WAR if he plays most of the year

I will be pretty surprised if McCann has negative WAR next year. I'm guessing he's more like 0.5 as a backup catcher

You should probably also count Givens 0.8 WAR last year against either Vespi or Kriehbel's slight negative WAR.

So we spent $28 million to be about 2.5 to 3.5 wins better than last year. That's roughly market rate for wins. It's not exciting, but eh, we seem improved a little

[Moose Milligan]

Maybe marginally better than last year. 
 

It’s obvious that Elias is expecting any big boost in wins to come from G-Rod, Adley, Gunnar and other young players developed in the system. 

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Frazier is probably roughly 1 WAR if he plays most of the year

Maybe if all you do is project him to duplicate last season’s line. Which seems a bit dubious, given that he’s a BA-powered offensive player who came in about 35 points below his career average BABIP (.268 compared to .303).

The guy has averaged about 3 rWAR per 650 PAs over the last 5 years. You’d have to believe he’s absolutely cooked in order to project him for another 1 WAR season. 

And before anyone comes by to read off his Baseball Savant page as proof that he’s collapsing at the age of 31, I think it’s important to note that in his 4 WAR 2021 season, his Statcast metrics (EV, barrels, hard hit %, etc) were all markedly similar to 2022. He can succeed with that batted ball profile — though he may need to bag the idea of trying to lift the ball and just be himself. I would assume Elias and Sig must have some ideas to get him back on track, given that they jumped all over the chance to get him here. Don’t think they’re throwing $8M at the guy unless they’re projecting some return to form.

 

[ChosenOne21]

5 hours ago, e16bball said:

Maybe if all you do is project him to duplicate last season’s line. Which seems a bit dubious, given that he’s a BA-powered offensive player who came in about 35 points below his career average BABIP (.268 compared to .303).

The guy has averaged about 3 rWAR per 650 PAs over the last 5 years. You’d have to believe he’s absolutely cooked in order to project him for another 1 WAR season. 

And before anyone comes by to read off his Baseball Savant page as proof that he’s collapsing at the age of 31, I think it’s important to note that in his 4 WAR 2021 season, his Statcast metrics (EV, barrels, hard hit %, etc) were all markedly similar to 2022. He can succeed with that batted ball profile — though he may need to bag the idea of trying to lift the ball and just be himself. I would assume Elias and Sig must have some ideas to get him back on track, given that they jumped all over the chance to get him here. Don’t think they’re throwing $8M at the guy unless they’re projecting some return to form.

 

Good analysis. It's entirely possible Frazier is better than 1 WAR.

Honestly, between injury, batted ball randomness, age related decline and sheer luck, that group of players could probably be anywhere from 0 to 6 WAR and I wouldn't fall out of my chair

[E-D-D-I-E]

19 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Or you were wrong.

I would argue that predicting 83 wins from last years team, was more foolish than his current prediction.

[E-D-D-I-E]

19 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Down year for Frazier.. his utility gives much more flexibility than Odor .. He could play RF or LF if needed or against righthanders 

Let’s look at the end of 2023 and revisit this dispute and see how much WAR dif between 2023 Odor and Frazier 

For the cost difference, he should be. I don't like the move. Frazier hasn't been that Pittsburgh guy for years. Odor was a pleasant surprise. He wasn't great but he had some big hits and was obviously a clubhouse leader and fan favorite, for some. Mostly though, I don't agree that he would grab some bench if Westburg rakes early. In my experience, players that make real money, play. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by E-D-D-I-E

[Stram]

1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

For the cost difference, he should be. I don't like the move. Frazier hasn't been that Pittsburgh guy for years. Odor was a pleasant surprise. He wasn't great but he had some big hits and was obviously a clubhouse leader and fan favorite, for some. Mostly though, I don't agree that he would grab some bench if Westburg rakes early. In my experience, players that make real money, play. 

He was .368 OBP over 577 ABs in 2021. 

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

For the cost difference, he should be. I don't like the move. Frazier hasn't been that Pittsburgh guy for years. Odor was a pleasant surprise. He wasn't great but he had some big hits and was obviously a clubhouse leader and fan favorite, for some. Mostly though, I don't agree that he would grab some bench if Westburg rakes early. In my experience, players that make real money, play. 

Maybe Hays can’t play 162 games in left or Santander 162 in right. Could Odor play the outfield? Odor was not a good player period. Frazier a lefty bat would be a stronger option than McKenna as a sub in outfield against righthanders or better than trying to play Mancini out there which we have tried in the recent past.
Same reason if Westburg rakes that Frazier could not necessarily be on the bench if he can play in outfield slots. 
And this board always underestimates thst guys get hurt, don’t live up as rookies to expectations so having a veteran All Star might be a good thing. 
And it is not “years” .. several others keep suggesting it was ancient history ..he hit .305 and was an All Star in 2021, he is only 31.. one season back from 2022 when he switched leagues and had 1 down season out of 8. 
Do we have anybody on the team who got 179 hits in 2021?  
Sometimes guys on 1 year deals that have something to prove so they get another deal often exceed expectations. 
 

Let’s revisit at the end of 2023 and see if Mike and i are correct or you are. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by tntoriole

[E-D-D-I-E]

15 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

Maybe Hays can’t play 162 games in left or Santander 162 in right. Could Odor play the outfield? Odor was not a good player period. Frazier a lefty bat would be a stronger option than McKenna as a sub in outfield against righthanders or better than trying to play Mancini out there which we have tried in the recent past.
Same reason if Westburg rakes that Frazier could not necessarily be on the bench if he can play in outfield slots. 
And this board always underestimates thst guys get hurt, don’t live up as rookies to expectations so having a veteran All Star might be a good thing. 
And it is not “years” .. several others keep suggesting it was ancient history ..he hit .305 and was an All Star in 2021, he is only 31.. one season back from 2022 when he switched leagues and had 1 down season out of 8. 
Do we have anybody on the team who got 179 hits in 2021?  
Sometimes guys on 1 year deals that have something to prove so they get another deal often exceed expectations. 
 

Let’s revisit at the end of 2023 and see if Mike and i are correct or you are. 

I am not comparing the 2 players at all. I realize the value of Frazier's utility. Injuries are part of the game and for that, he is valuable, on a true contender especially. (deadline deal inc) Injuries WILL happen this year. Hayes cannot play 162 games, that's a sad truth. Your basically saying Frazier was signed to be a 4th outfielder @ 8 million. That's a bad deal. I am not buying that and believe he will play ALOT of second base. Barring injury, IF Westburg rakes, you really think our outfield will sit enough to justify Frazier? Again, I do believe he blocks the plethora of young infielders and their opportunities and that is my major problem with the Frazier signing. 

Yep we will see what happens. Neither of us has a crystal ball. I will be pulling for Frazier as hard as the rest. I just want to young guys to get their shot when its earned. No more Ryan Adams vs Bucks "son" Robert Andino.

Edited December 23, 2022 by E-D-D-I-E

[E-D-D-I-E]

27 minutes ago, Stram said:

He was .368 OBP over 577 ABs in 2021. 

Yea in 386 at bats with a BAIBP of .359....

[DrinkinWithFermi]

22 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Disagree.. last year was below his norms and he is much better defensively and can play the outfield.  You want to wager who has more WAR in 2023?  I will take Frazier 

I think Frazier will be slightly above replacement level.

[tntoriole]

45 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

I am not comparing the 2 players at all. I realize the value of Frazier's utility. Injuries are part of the game and for that, he is valuable, on a true contender especially. (deadline deal inc) Injuries WILL happen this year. Hayes cannot play 162 games, that's a sad truth. Your basically saying Frazier was signed to be a 4th outfielder @ 8 million. That's a bad deal. I am not buying that and believe he will play ALOT of second base. Barring injury, IF Westburg rakes, you really think our outfield will sit enough to justify Frazier? Again, I do believe he blocks the plethora of young infielders and their opportunities and that is my major problem with the Frazier signing. 

Yep we will see what happens. Neither of us has a crystal ball. I will be pulling for Frazier as hard as the rest. I just want to young guys to get their shot when its earned. No more Ryan Adams vs Bucks "son" Robert Andino.

No he is a much more proven 2b option at the moment and Westburg will not be given a chance to come and hit .175 for a month or two while adjusting. He will have to be better than Frazier to play much this year. 
 

One year contract .. hardly Chris Davis in terms of blocking anyone .. and rookies are rookies .. 

Edited December 23, 2022 by tntoriole