With the MLB additions are we a much better team than 2022?

[eddie83]

How starting pitching does and depth of lineup will determine season. I can see some regression from pen but overall I think they will still be good. I think we have some good players in lineup but also questions. Young talent in system could really help. Team was 10th in runs. Need to bump that up and yes I know the park impacts that. Be nice to be around at least 5/6 th.  CWS, SEA, CLE, MINN and TEX were all ahead. I think they can climb over some of them. Top 4 were NY, TOR, HOU and BOS. Not sure how I feel about BOS lineup yet.  
 

Comes down to rotation mainly. Obviously health. 

[RZNJ]

It's a loaded question.   We've pretty much just replaced players to this point so "much better" would be impossible to say.   There could/should be modest improvement but that's no slam dunk.

The bigger questions is "is Elias done yet?".    I don't think so.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, Spakman said:

Don’t forget to subtract Lopez

Don't forget to add Givens. 

[eddie83]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

It's a loaded question.   We've pretty much just replaced players to this point so "much better" would be impossible to say.   There could/should be modest improvement but that's no slam dunk.

The bigger questions is "is Elias done yet?".    I don't think so.

He will definitely getting another arm but at this point not sure when. I don’t see a big Iineup move. Not sure he even adds another position player. I’d say 65/35 no. 
 

I guess it’s possible another relief arm but not good odds. All about the other SP. 

[maybenxtyr]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I recorded  10 games from last year that I play whenever I need an Orioles fix.   I just marvel at the play of Adley, Gunnar and (Bradish vs Houston).  Can't wait to see the battle between Westburg and Ortiz in ST.   And watch Grayson attack hitters.  

I think the O's are at least a 92 win team right now.   It could be more after we watch the team come together in ST.    I think the balanced schedule will mean more wins for the O's  but probably the whole AL East benefits from that.

I think we have to remember that with no changes the O's would have been a 89 win team if Adley had been with the team all season.

Last year's team outperformed their Pythagorean by 4 games...in an unexpected season where the pitching without a decent track record pitched well above expectations. 

 

I think the offense will most likely be a bit better than last year, but assuming the pitching is as good or better just doesn't make sense.

 

Every team in the AL East has made upgrades that outpace what the Orioles have done. I'm not going to say a 9 win improvement is impossible, but I would say that it's highly unlikely. I've been "on record" as saying that I expect a bit of regression record wise simply because I don't think the 2022 team was as good as they ended up.

 

All that being said, I hope you're right and they do win 90+ games.

[Yardball85]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's the backup catcher.

Most teams end up with someone who is close to replacement level.  

As long as the O's didn't give up anything useful it's fine.

He should bounce back a bit.

Agreed.  As long as McCann is not getting regular at bats (unless he gets hot), then it's a solid move.  He was pretty good a few years ago, and I read that he was a bit unlucky last year.  A low 700s OPS with 8-10 home runs would be perfectly fine from him. 

[btdart20]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

It's a loaded question.   We've pretty much just replaced players to this point so "much better" would be impossible to say.   There could/should be modest improvement but that's no slam dunk.

And we're also expanding the question in our answers.  The way the question is framed it zeroes in on the 3 players we subtracted and the 3 players we added.  I think the 3 new players are (subjectively but) considerably better than the ones we subtracted for their costs.  I think they do.

The question did not ask about other options (i.e. signing other players or letting prospects play).  It did not ask about league context (NYY, TOR or whoever getting better).  It did not ask about future moves (do we trade or sign another bat or SP).  Many answers are going those directions.

[HakunaSakata]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I recorded  10 games from last year that I play whenever I need an Orioles fix.   I just marvel at the play of Adley, Gunnar and (Bradish vs Houston).  Can't wait to see the battle between Westburg and Ortiz in ST.   And watch Grayson attack hitters.  

I think the O's are at least a 92 win team right now.   It could be more after we watch the team come together in ST.    I think the balanced schedule will mean more wins for the O's  but probably the whole AL East benefits from that.

I think we have to remember that with no changes the O's would have been a 89 win team if Adley had been with the team all season.

Appreciate your optimism, but it doesn't take into account the fact that most of the other AL East teams (Blue Jays and Yankees in particular) have significantly improved their rosters this offseason. When you take that into consideration and if you remove your orange tinted glasses when you look at the Oriole's projected starting pitching rotation I don't see how you can say they're a 90+ win team. 

[webbrick2010]

Looks like a 74-78 win team to me, we are definitely not keeping up with the Jones of the AL East

[webbrick2010]

Looks like a 74-78 win team to me, we are definitely not keeping up with the Jones of the AL East

[eddie83]

13 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:

Appreciate your optimism, but it doesn't take into account the fact that most of the other AL East teams (Blue Jays and Yankees in particular) have significantly improved their rosters this offseason. When you take that into consideration and if you remove your orange tinted glasses when you look at the Oriole's projected starting pitching rotation I don't see how you can say they're a 90+ win team. 

 I will say this. Maybe I’m being optimistic but with the schedule change it is more likely that they can get into the playoffs as a 4th place team. I don’t see how on paper they are better than TOR, NYY and TB. I do think NYY will not score as much this year. Rodon was big for them. TB gets more of Lowe and Franco. 
 

May come down to batting out with SEA. CWS and TEX are the 2 wildcards to me literally. I see upside and questions with both. 
 

At end of day team is not considerably better due to those 3 players but still is a capable playoff contender. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by eddie83

[Aristotelian]

5 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 I will say this. Maybe I’m being optimistic but with the schedule change it is more likely that they can get into the playoffs as a 4th place team. I don’t see how on paper they are better than TOR, NYY and TB. I do think NYY will not score as much this year. Rodon was big for them. TB gets more of Lowe and Franco. 
 

May come down to batting out with SEA. CWS and TEX are the 2 wildcards to me literally. I see upside and questions with both. 
 

At end of day team is not considerably better due to those 3 players but still is a capable playoff contender. 

The balanced schedule effect will be interesting. Someone on the board did a calculation that suggested about 3 wins difference. That further helps NYY and TOR, but don't forget that also means a couple of wins less for everyone in the weaker divisions. 

Also everyone expects regression from players that overperformed but nobody expects regression from players that underperformed. Any of Mountcastle, Mullins, and Hays I could see making some net improvement to offset some bullpen regression.

I like our placeholder FA's marginally better than Lyles-Odor-Chirinos, and combined with the schedule, Grayson, and full year of Gunnar I do think our record can improve even with some bullpen regression. 

[banks703]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Agreed.  As long as McCann is not getting regular at bats (unless he gets hot), then it's a solid move.  He was pretty good a few years ago, and I read that he was a bit unlucky last year.  A low 700s OPS with 8-10 home runs would be perfectly fine from him. 

I think with moderate improvement from Rustch (and a full year) in year two, it's reasonable to hope that he drops in somewhere around the .280/.380/.500 for an OPS around .880 with 20ish homeruns and 35ish doubles. Yes I think he is going to be a guy who approaches .900 OPS in his peak years, which he has probably already entered. 

If McCann contributes an OPS of .700 with 10ish homeruns.. The Orioles will have the best combined offensive production from the catcher position in all of baseball. 

 

If AR catches 120ish games and McCann catches 40ish games at the above offensive production, the Orioles are significantly better there than they were in 2022. 

[BRobinsonfan]

4 hours ago, owknows said:

I think we tried shopping at Macy's but Our offers typically fell about 40% short

So...  we ended up at the Dollar Store.

I guess I'm a little more stoic about these situations than you are. The players that are going to significantly move the needle for this team are in the farm system. Not on the FA market. I'm OK with that. I've made no secret of the fact that I even prefer it.

I largely agree, and as a small market team I don't expect we're ever going to be able to compete for elite free agents, but the $23 million we spent on 3 marginal free agents would have been better spent on one decent pitcher in my opinion.   

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

We are not “definitely better”

I’d say “probably better,” in terms of roster construction and run differential.  I always have in mind that we outperformed our Pythag by 4 games last year.  So, we could do better in run differential and not have a better record.  

I think the four players acquired so far are modest upgrades.  The bigger upgrade is going to be having Adley and Gunnar on the team all year, and hopefully Grayson.  

The poll question didn’t allow for “modestly better,” so I voted “about the same.”