Orioles acquire Ryan O’Hearn

[jamalshw]

I view this akin to a Rule-5 pick (expect in this case the guy has an option). What I mean by that is, it's a flier. I would assume Elias and Sig's analytics indicate that there may be a tweak or two combined with the lack of a shift which could potentially unlock some potential. Unlike a Rule-5 guy, he doesn't have to stay on the 26-man roster and we can take some time in April and May to evaluate in AAA. Given our lack of 1B options in AAA (though I wouldn't mind some guys like Westburg getting some time there), it makes some sense.

If the plan is for O'Hearn to be on the major league roster as a bench bat, I don't get this move. If the idea is he only makes the roster with a monster spring or after a need arises at the Major League level after he has played very well at Norfolk over 6+ weeks, I'm on board. It's a low risk move. It's also not likely to produce much, but maybe...

 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Maybe they did some analysis that indicated that the change in rules concerning shifting wasn't going to make a big difference?

 

I covered this in my original take on him. He does hit better with no shift, but the shift didn't stop him from hitting one home run last year. His EVs are really good, but his hit chart shows that he sprays the ball around and not really a pull hitter. Maybe he will try to be more like that with no one out in shallow RF? 

At the end of the day though, he's a 29-year old who has slashed .211/.282/.351/.633 in 901 PAs from 2019-2021. 

Will he improve a bit from his 2021 numbers based on his EVs and expected stats, sure, but how much? He's a got a long way to go to be a productive major leaguer offensively, and he's a below average outfielder with a below average arm, so he's really a first baseman who hasn't hit like one since his rookie campaign.

I will say this though. He probably has a better chance of putting up decent numbers than Frazier, but I still don't like him as anything more than AAA depth, and I wouldn't pay $1.4 for AAA depth.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

 I wouldn't pay $1.4 for AAA depth.

I would.  Team with more of a budget and a roster that had a real shot to make noise in the playoffs...sure.  Say you have a star caliber player that can't stay healthy for 162?  Done.

But not for the 2023 Orioles.

[eddie83]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would.  Team with more of a budget and a roster that had a real shot to make noise in the playoffs...sure.  Say you have a star caliber player that can't stay healthy for 162?  Done.

But not for the 2023 Orioles.

So you are saying that the Orioles have no chance to make the playoffs?

[LookinUp]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I will say this though. He probably has a better chance of putting up decent numbers than Frazier...

Oof. Let's hope not.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

So you are saying that the Orioles have no chance to make the playoffs?

What is the point of attacking me in such a fashion when it is obvious I didn't say anything of the sort?

 

Edited January 4, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

What is the point of attacking me in such a fashion when it is obvious I didn't way anything of the sort?

 

I wasn’t attacking you. I was asking a question. You seem to think this club is not good enough to make this kind of a move, fair? 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

And again, this organization does not sign $1.4 million player to be depth in AAA.  

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on this point here. I believe unless he tears it up in ST that he will be in AAA. I'm definitely willing to eat crow if I'm wrong! Also, they didn't sign him, they traded cash for him. To me, that's a distinction (if a ticky-tacky one) that separates him from Odor, who they targeted and gave a ML deal to. We will see! 

Edited January 4, 2023 by interloper

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, eddie83 said:

I wasn’t attacking you. I was asking a question. You seem to think this club is not good enough to make this kind of a move, fair? 

Did you read what I wrote?

I don't see how you can read what I wrote and come to that conclusion.  It simply isn't there.

[eddie83]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Did you read what I wrote?

I don't see how you can read what I wrote and come to that conclusion.  It simply isn't there.

Yes.
 

These moves are not impacting any budget. There is no big budget. 
 

If the club can make the playoffs can they do damage? In order to get in they are going to have to be pitching at some solid level. 

[btdart20]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

his hit chart shows that he sprays the ball around and not really a pull hitter.

To clarify for others:  The hit chart shows hits.  Not batted balls for outs.  So, it's not the full data set to determine whether or not eliminated the shift will help him.  XWOBACON gives the expected batting average on contact and incorporates the needed data.

[emmett16]

13 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

 

I will say this though. He probably has a better chance of putting up decent numbers than Frazier, but I still don't like him as anything more than AAA depth, and I wouldn't pay $1.4 for AAA depth.

Curious on this last part.  I admittedly know very little about putting a roster together and value your opinion.  If a team with a small budget (assuming it’s status quote and we don’t spend much) has to find room in the margins, why not try and “stack” your AAA team?   I’m not saying spend an insane amount, but why not spend say 2.5MM (about half of 1 WAR - and this is a pure hypothetical talking out loud thing here) and try to turn that in to 1 WAR.  Inevitably there is going to be injury and things happen.  Why not pick out 3-4 guys you think you can get & protect, put them in your program, stash them in AAA and see if you can strike lightening in a bottle, as a secondary insurance plan?  Again, just thinking out loud.  Curious if you think it’s as simple as that $$ could be spent more effectively somewhere else.  

[DrinkinWithFermi]

11 hours ago, interloper said:

IMO depth moves like this are just separate from what is considered a good or bad off-season. Like, good or bad, these depth moves would be made in either case you know? 

1) Depth type moves are pretty much the only moves the team has made this offseason.

2) I think O'Hearn has a much better chance of making the team as the DH vs. RHPs/backup 1B than you realize.

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Easily? Those at bats come at the expense of someone. Who? I brought up JD earlier in the off-season. He is taking at bats away from Santander and/or Stowers. 

Yes, easily. Getting Stowers ABs clearly wasn't much of a priority last year and he didn't exactly hit the cover off the ball in the limited playing time he was able to eke out when Aguilar and Phillips weren't starting over him. I would not be the least bit shocked if he starts 2023 in Norfolk, even with the complete lack of meaningful additions to the team thus far.

So saying that a legitimate upgrade like Josh Bell or JD Martinez or Justin Turner would have been taking ABs away from Stowers is pretty silly. 

[Tony-OH]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

We will see! 

Now this we can agree on!

[Number5]

36 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Because that’s exactly what was written.   If KC was paying part of his salary, cash would be going from KC to Baltimore.

I guess I'm confused as to why "cash considerations" can't mean that Baltimore is taking on some of the money that Kansas City is on the hook for.  If a team signed him for the minimum, KC would owe him $700k.  If a team signed him to a minor league contract, KC would owe him even more.  If Baltimore agreed to pay, say $800k of O'Hearn's $1.4 million KC owes, KC would be receiving some salary relief as "cash considerations."  No?  What am I missing?