How will the OF/1B/DH plate appearances be allocated?

[Frobby]

Assume there are approximately 3,450 plate appearances available between the three OF spots and 1B and DH.   How many of those will go to:

Mullins (672 last year)

Santander (647)

Mountcastle (609)

Hays (582)

McKenna (172)

Stowers (98)

Frazier (121 at those spots for the Mariners)

O’Hearn (145 for the Royals)

Rutschman (97 at DH)

Others

Recall that Mancini got 411 PA last year before he was traded.  “Others” who got PA last year in these spots included Vavra (52 at these spots), Nevin (46), Aguilar (49) and numerous others getting an occasional day at DH.

[Frobby]

Here’s my own guess:

Mullins (672 last year) 650

Santander (647) 600

Mountcastle (609) 600

Hays (582) 550

McKenna (172) 170

Stowers (98) 350

Frazier (121 at those spots for the Mariners) 100

O’Hearn (145 for the Royals) 125

Rutschman (97 at DH) 125

Others 180

[Moose Milligan]

Allocated in a way guaranteed to piss people off, I am sure.

Speaking of, I'll be a bit testy if Frazier gets any playing time at those spots which is a bonafide lock, so be prepared to see pissy Moose here on the OH this summer.  I am aware that he can play outfield but I don't believe he should see any time out there if Stowers is an option.  Hell, if Cowser is an option and ready to come up, I'll be irate if Frazier is getting playing time in the outfield ahead of him.  Even a guy like McKenna who isn't much of a threat with the bat but can fly on the bases if he gets on, I'd rather see McKenna in the outfield instead of Frazier.

So now that we're clear about how I feel about Frazier...let's start on O'Hearn....

I'm kidding, I'm not trying to get my blood pressure that high this morning.

In the outfield getting at bats across the season I'd like to see Mullins, Hays, Santander, Stowers, McKenna, and Cowser when he's ready.  

1B/DH should be a rotation of Mountcastle and I'd like to see if they can get Stowers worked in at 1st base.  Those guys can revolve through DH with Adley getting some DH at bats, too.

O'Hearn has been left out for a reason.

Edited January 5, 2023 by Moose Milligan

[eddie83]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s my own guess:

 

Mullins (672 last year) 650

Santander (647) 600

Mountcastle (609) 600

Hays (582) 550

McKenna (172) 170

Stowers (98) 350

Frazier (121 at those spots for the Mariners) 100

O’Hearn (145 for the Royals) 125

Rutschman (97 at DH) 125

Others 180

I think this is a very reasonable guess. 
Can shave 30/40 at bats here and there around but in terms of overall I think this is a good guesstimate. Health is the unknown. 

At the end of the day I think the thing is it will work itself out. Cowser at some point can obviously impact the OF. Hays is someone I can see losing some time even before Cowser’s arrival. 
 

Other point is had they added a DH/OF type who is an everyday player you are taking 600 at bats away from that group. 
 

You are basically projecting 4 regular players and a mix to handle the rest with Stowers getting the most at bats. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Allocated in a way guaranteed to piss people off, I am sure.

Speaking of, I'll be a bit testy if Frazier gets any playing time at those spots which is a bonafide lock, so be prepared to see pissy Moose here on the OH this summer.  I am aware that he can play outfield but I don't believe he should see any time out there if Stowers is an option. 

I think one of the biggest questions going into spring training is how does Stowers look defensively?   I have the distinct impression that Hyde and the O’s brass were not happy with his defensive performance and will only increase his playing time significantly if he looks better defensively this spring.  Of course, that’s tricky, because spring training weather and stadium conditions are nothing like typical major league conditions.   

As a general matter, it’s my impression that the O’s weight defense more heavily than most of the fan base, and that their methods of evaluating defense differ from what one might conclude by looking at the publicly available metrics.  For example, I think they value Hays’ defense more highly than the public metrics might suggest.  
 

[jamalshw]

I'll take a stab: 

Mullins (672 last year) 600

Santander (647) 575

Mountcastle (609) 550

Hays (582) 475

McKenna (172) 150

Stowers (98) 400

Frazier (121 at those spots for the Mariners) 150

O’Hearn (145 for the Royals) 100

Rutschman (97 at DH) 175

McCann 50

Others 225 (MOSTLY COWSER)

[eddie83]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think one of the biggest questions going into spring training is how does Stowers look defensively?   I have the distinct impression that Hyde and the O’s brass were not happy with his defensive performance and will only increase his playing time significantly if he looks better defensively this spring.  Of course, that’s tricky, because spring training weather and stadium conditions are nothing like typical major league conditions.   

As a general matter, it’s my impression that the O’s weight defense more heavily than most of the fan base, and that their methods of evaluating defense differ from what one might conclude by looking at the publicly available metrics.  For example, I think they value Hays’ defense more highly than the public metrics might suggest.  
 

Another point to this would have been an addition of JD Martinez/Justin Turner/M. Brantley.  
 

The first two would have chewed up a ton of DH at bats. That then impacts how Santander is used. He would be mainly a regular RF at that point. There would be no choice. No way could Brantley have played LF here. That impacts things as well. I would have been fine adding someone who is a DH type but it has trickle down impacts. Someone would have been dealt away or you have weakened your OF defense. Obviously it takes at bats away from someone at the least. 
 

I was not impressed with Stowers glove last year at all. He made some nice plays in a game late in the year but overall he struggled. Hays I thought did slip some but not as much as the metrics show. The new LF has created a need for a better glove at Camden. 

[Sports Guy]

Who knows. Injuries, trades, etc…all of it changes things.

What I will say is how it should be, provided no one is traded or any big injuries (defining that as something that keeps you out for months as opposed to a few weeks).

Stowers, Cowser and Mullins should be the everyday OF by June 1 at the latest, assuming healthy and performance by Cowser.  If Cowser is tearing it up in AAA from the beginning, he should be here by May 1. I also wouldn’t have an issue if he was here from day 1.

Hays and McKenna should be the back up OFers.

Santander is your everyday DH and part time first baseman. (If they want Stowers to get reps at first as well, that’s fine)

Until Cowser comes up, you can fill in that CO spot with Hays, McKenna and I guess Santander.

Guys who shouldn’t be an option for the OF include Frazier. He gives us little to no value out there.

 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Who knows. Injuries, trades, etc…all of it changes things.

What I will say is how it should be, provided no one is traded or any big injuries (defining that as something that keeps you out for months as opposed to a few weeks).

Stowers, Cowser and Mullins should be the everyday OF by June 1 at the latest, assuming healthy and performance by Cowser.  If Cowser is tearing it up in AAA from the beginning, he should be here by May 1. I also wouldn’t have an issue if he was here from day 1.

Hays and McKenna should be the back up OFers.

Santander is your everyday DH and part time first baseman. (If they want Stowers to get reps at first as well, that’s fine)

Until Cowser comes up, you can fill in that CO spot with Hays, McKenna and I guess Santander.

Guys who shouldn’t be an option for the OF include Frazier. He gives us little to no value out there.

 

You definitely have a higher opinion of Stowers than I do.  He will have to prove to me that he’s better than Hays as an overall player.   As to Cowser, I’m pretty confident he won’t be up by June 1 in almost any event (barring significant injuries).   He’s only got 124 AAA plate appearances under his belt, and those were fairly underwhelming (.767 OPS).  He did come on a bit towards the end, so hopefully he’s at .850+ in April and May.   If so, we can talk about it then.  

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

You definitely have a higher opinion of Stowers than I do.  He will have to prove to me that he’s better than Hays as an overall player.   As to Cowser, I’m pretty confident he won’t be up by June 1 in almost any event (barring significant injuries).   He’s only got 124 AAA plate appearances under his belt, and those were fairly underwhelming (.767 OPS).  He did come on a bit towards the end, so hopefully he’s at .850+ in April and May.   If so, we can talk about it then.  

Hays is an oft injured guy with declining defense and poor plate discipline.

Anyone still wanting to rely on him is delusional. It’s done. He can be a guy you pencil in for 300-400 at bats but anything more than that, in terms of a plan entering the season, is extremely flawed.

[btdart20]

Mullins - 600

Santander - 650

Monty - 500 - think he'll lose PAs if he's not hitting dingers, not sure we have a good answer for 1B otherwise though...

Hays - 250 - I think he'll lose the most PAs in 2023.

Cowser - 400

McKenna - 150

Stowers - 350

Frazier - 100 

O'Hearn - 50 

Rutschman - 150

Others - 200 - Westburg/Norby mostly and I feel like this is low.

[eddie83]

At the end of the day what it shows is there is no way one can project a ton of at bats at these positions for O’Hearn or McCann or Frazier for that matter. 

[oriole]

I’d like to see Mullins moved to 7/8 in the lineup vs lefties which would limit his at bats a bit. So I might limit him to around 600 since he’ll sit against some tougher lefties also. 
 

I fully expect Santander and Hays to have injuries, but let’s say they stay healthy then it’s probably due to a reasonable amount of rest throughout the season. Depending on how he looks, Hays might be a good option to replace Mullins at lead off against lefties. Not sure I’d want to count on that though. I’ll say about 550 for Hays, 600 for Santander with added rest days included. But both of them will likely be on the IL for some length.

I think we’ll see a frustrating amount of Frazier in the lineup. I’m predicting around 550. He’ll be an every day player for the most part. 
 

Henderson and Rutschman I expect to see as much as possible. I’ll say 650 for Henderson, 550 for Rutschman. Rutschman will get the Wieters treatment…Henderson will hopefully hit well enough to be somewhere within the top 5 of the lineup every day. 
 

Mountcastle will he given every opportunity to redeem himself. I don’t expect O’Hearn to factor into his playing time since O’Hearn is really awful at baseball. I’ll predict 600 for Mountcastle.

 

Im not sure they treat Mateo as an every day player anymore. What would make the most sense is to have Henderson at SS, Urias at 3B most days, and Mateo backing them up. Henderson moves to 3B to get Mateo in at SS. Stowers will probably start getting the Vavra treatment. I imagine something especially dumb will happen consistently like McCann getting at bats over Stowers. Not sure I can even really predict these and the rest since they’re all part time players. I do expect to see a lot of rotation through the DH spot to help keep the main guys fresh. 
 

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by oriole

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays is an oft injured guy with declining defense and poor plate discipline.

Anyone still wanting to rely on him is delusional. It’s done. He can be a guy you pencil in for 300-400 at bats but anything more than that, in terms of a plan entering the season, is extremely flawed.

Hays has this rap of being oft-injured, and yet he was 22nd among major league outfielders in PA in 2022, 29th in 2021, 22nd for the two years combined.  I won’t contest that he was banged up in the second half of last year and probably should have played less than he did, but I feel the “oft-injured” label is a little dated at this point.   

Hays’ defense is a bit of a statistical Rorschach test: Rdrs and UZR say he was good, Rtot and OAA say he wasn’t.  Personally I think the former is closer to the truth.   One thing I do feel strongly about is he’s significantly better than Stowers has shown.  

Plate discipline?  I can’t dispute your point there.  

It might sound like I’m arguing to just stick Hays out there all year no matter what, but that’s not actually what I want to happen.   Instead, I prefer that Hays goes into the season playing most of the time, that Stowers also gets plenty of playing time, and if their play dictates that Stowers should play more than Hays as the year progresses, so be it.  


 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Hays has this rap of being oft-injured, and yet he was 22nd among major league outfielders in PA in 2022, 29th in 2021, 22nd for the two years combined.  I won’t contest that he was banged up in the second half of last year and probably should have played less than he did, but I feel the “oft-injured” label is a little dated at this point.   

Hays’ defense is a bit of a statistical Rorschach test: Rdrs and UZR say he was good, Rtot and OAA say he wasn’t.  Personally I think the former is closer to the truth.   One thing I do feel strongly about is he’s significantly better than Stowers has shown.  

Plate discipline?  I can’t dispute your point there.  

It might sound like I’m arguing to just stick Hays out there all year no matter what, but that’s not actually what I want to happen.   Instead, I prefer that Hays goes into the season playing most of the time, that Stowers also gets plenty of playing time, and if their play dictates that Stowers should play more than Hays as the year progresses, so be it.  


 

 No, I think you are just biased towards Hays.

And calling him oft injured is 100% accurate. He played half the year last year with injuries that effected him.

I like him and if he ends up being healthy and playing well, he can earn more at bats.

But any plan that goes into the season expecting him to get 500 or more at bats is incredibly flawed.