2023 Lineup Guesses

[ThisIsBirdland]

Any early guesses as to how Hyde will typically fill out the lineup card this year? My first stab at it:

Vs RHP:

CF Cedric Mullins (L)

C Adley Rutschman (S)

3B Gunnar Henderson (L)

DH Anthony Santander (S)

1B Ryan Mountcastle (R)

2B Adam Frazier (L)

LF Austin Hays (R)

RF Kyle Stowers (L)

SS Jorge Mateo (R)

Bench: McCann (R), Urias (R), McKenna (R), Vavra (L)

Vs LHP

CF Austin Hays (R)

DH Adley Rutschman (S)

RF Anthony Santander (S)

1B Ryan Mountcastle (R)

SS Gunnar Henderson (L)

C James McCann (R)

2B Adam Frazier (L)

3B Ramon Urias (R)

RF Kyle Stowers (L)

Bench: Mullins (L), Mateo (R), McKenna (R), Vavra (L) 

[yark14]

We're likely going to see a big difference between the early part of the year versus the end of the year.  Even if we are in a playoff race.

[Orioles0615]

Benching Mullins vs lefties seems like a waste. He struggled last year but did just fine in 2021. Why did we make him give up being a switch hitter then. 

Also Adley better not be platooning. His value is at catcher, McCann should only start when Adley needs a day off, not whenever there is a left handed pitcher. 

Again if they are so scared of left handed pitchers they should have nuked the left field wall forcing them to build lefty focus lineups.

Edited January 13, 2023 by Orioles0615

[ThisIsBirdland]

25 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Benching Mullins vs lefties seems like a waste. He struggled last year but did just fine in 2021. Why did we make him give up being a switch hitter then. 

Also Adley better not be platooning. His value is at catcher, McCann should only start when Adley needs a day off, not whenever there is a left handed pitcher. 

Again if they are so scared of left handed pitchers they should have nuked the left field wall forcing them to build lefty focus lineups.

Mullins splits (OPS vs LHP/RHP)

 - Career: .646/.814

 - 2022: .589/.782

 - 2021: .788/.931

Not the be-all, end-all statistic, but pretty striking deltas there. I hate to say it, but I think 2021 was probably Mullins' outlier year, hoping I'm wrong though.

I also wouldn't bet on Adley catching more than 110-120 games. Pretty sure they're not going to over-play him behind the plate. Last year he was DH for 23 games and caught 90 games; this year he's probably looking at catching 115 and playing DH in 30 or so. May as well try to schedule catching off days around LHP matchups given McCann's career .777 OPS against LHP. Still worth keeping Adley in the lineup as much as possible of course, even if he had a few early struggles against LHP last year (didn't show up as an issue in the minors IIRC though). Also, I think LHP only make up 25% or so of all MLB innings pitched, worth keeping in mind.

Edited January 13, 2023 by ThisIsBirdland

[Aristotelian]

43 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Benching Mullins vs lefties seems like a waste. He struggled last year but did just fine in 2021. Why did we make him give up being a switch hitter then. 

Also Adley better not be platooning. His value is at catcher, McCann should only start when Adley needs a day off, not whenever there is a left handed pitcher. 

Again if they are so scared of left handed pitchers they should have nuked the left field wall forcing them to build lefty focus lineups.

+1 to both, these guys are not platoon players. McKenna will probably get a few starts against RHP to rest Cedric but not on a regular basis. Adley will rest day games after night games whether the pitcher is RH or LH, but should start 150+ games at C or DH. 

RHP: Cedric CF, Adley C, Gunnar SS, Santander DH, Mountcastle 1B, Stowers RF, Hays/Vavra LF, Urias 3B, Frazier 2B 

LHP: Cedric CF, Adley C, Mountcastle 1B, Santander DH, Gunnar 3B, Hays LF, Urias 2B, Stowers RF, Mateo SS

Adley DH vs RHP: Cedric CF, Adley DH, Gunnar SS, Santander RF, Mountcastle 1B, Hays/Vavra LF, Urias 3B, Frazier 2B, McAnn C

Adley DH vs LHP: Cedric CF, Adley DH, Mountcastle 1B, Santander RF, Gunnar 3B, Hays LF, Urias 2B, McAnn C, Mateo SS

[ThisIsBirdland]

14 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

+1 to both, these guys are not platoon players. McKenna will probably get a few starts against RHP to rest Cedric but not on a regular basis. Adley will rest day games after night games whether the pitcher is RH or LH, but should start 150+ games at C or DH. 

RHP: Cedric CF, Adley C, Gunnar SS, Santander DH, Mountcastle 1B, Stowers RF, Hays/Vavra LF, Urias 3B, Frazier 2B 

LHP: Cedric CF, Adley C, Mountcastle 1B, Santander DH, Gunnar 3B, Hays LF, Urias 2B, Stowers RF, Mateo SS

Adley DH vs RHP: Cedric CF, Adley DH, Gunnar SS, Santander RF, Mountcastle 1B, Hays/Vavra LF, Urias 3B, Frazier 2B, McAnn C

Adley DH vs LHP: Cedric CF, Adley DH, Mountcastle 1B, Santander RF, Gunnar 3B, Hays LF, Urias 2B, McAnn C, Mateo SS

Again, no disagreement on the number of games Adley starts, I've been throwing out 140-150.

If Mullins struggles to hit LHP again this year, I could see him starting all games versus righties (+/- 120?), and splitting the other 40 starts starts with Hays/McKenna against LHP. Still gives him 140 starts on the season. For reference he started 144 last year.

[Frobby]

I don’t know about 2022, but in 2021 the Orioles used 147 different lineups, and the highest frequency of any one lineup was 3.  So, I’m not going to invest energy in this.  Better teams probably have somewhat more regular lineups, but I’ll bet most teams don’t use the same exact lineup more than 10-20 times in a year these days.  Players rest, players get hurt, players get sent down and come up, players get traded, players get moved up and down the lineup.   Just to take one example, Austin Hays played at least 7 games at every single lineup spot from 1-8 last year.

[NedFromYork]

Unless Mateo has reverse splits I think he gets ls most of at bats at SS against LHP pitching, with Urias at 2B a lot and Gunnar at 3B.

Edited January 13, 2023 by NedFromYork

[ThisIsBirdland]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know about 2022, but in 2021 the Orioles used 147 different lineups, and the highest frequency of any one lineup was 3.  So, I’m not going to invest energy in this.  Better teams probably have somewhat more regular lineups, but I’ll bet most teams don’t use the same exact lineup more than 10-20 times in a year these days.  Players rest, players get hurt, players get sent down and come up, players get traded, players get moved up and down the lineup.   Just to take one example, Austin Hays played at least 7 games at every single lineup spot from 1-8 last year.

All very fair, I just enjoy little thought experiments like this when I'm bored in the off-season. I also think it's more or less impossible especially with Hyde, he definitely seems to be in favor of regularly switching it up as you pointed out.

[emmett16]

Lineup will be changed often with 50+ iterations.  

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Lineup will be changed often with 50+ iterations.  

Way more than that I’ll bet.  

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Way more than that I’ll bet.  

Very Rays like. Also, Frazier will most likely be betting 8th. I don’t want Vavra on the bench. I want him playing all 8 positions in AAA and leading off for a month or two. No shift. He’s got some speed. We could really refine him to being a valuable piece on our team, if he works his tail off, and not just a DH type. 

[Aristotelian]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t know about 2022, but in 2021 the Orioles used 147 different lineups, and the highest frequency of any one lineup was 3.  So, I’m not going to invest energy in this.  Better teams probably have somewhat more regular lineups, but I’ll bet most teams don’t use the same exact lineup more than 10-20 times in a year these days.  Players rest, players get hurt, players get sent down and come up, players get traded, players get moved up and down the lineup.   Just to take one example, Austin Hays played at least 7 games at every single lineup spot from 1-8 last year.

I don't really expect any of these to get all 1-9 but I like the exercise to see some full lineups and think through the options, different roles for guys, and next guy up. 

[Aristotelian]

10 hours ago, NedFromYork said:

Unless Mateo has reverse splits I think he gets ls most of at bats at SS against LHP pitching, with Urias at 2B a lot and Gunnar at 3B.

Mateo actually does have a slight reverse split. If they decide to move Mateo to utility and have Gunnar take over SS with Urias mostly 3B vs RHP, I think it would make sense to start Mateo at 2B vs LHP, keeping Gunnar at SS. Frazier does have traditional splits.

[Frobby]

Here’s some batting order data from last year:

1st: Mullins 141, Hays 11, McKenna 6, Henderson 2, Mancini 1, Vavra 1

2nd: Mancini 60, Rutschman 58, Hays 13, Mountcastle 13, Santander 13, Urias 4, Mateo 1

3rd: Santander 101, Mountcastle 30, Mancini 19, Hays 6, Henderson 3, Aguilar 1, Rutschman 1, Vavra 1

4th: Mountcastle 63, Hays 39, Santander 31, Mancini 10, Urias 8, Rutschman 7, Stowers 1, Henderson 1, Aguilar 1, Odor 1

5th: Mountcastle 30, Urias 25, Hays 20, Rutschman 19, Henderson 17, Odor 16, Vavra 8, Aguilar 6, Nevin 5, Santander 4, Stowers 4, McKenna 4, Mateo 3, Mancini 1.

6th: Urias 30, Hays 29, Odor 26, Rutschman 21, Nevin 18, Vavra 7, Mountcastle 6, Henderson 5, Mateo 4, McKenna 4, Chirinos 4, Stowers 3, Aguilar 3, Santander 1, Mullins 1

7th: Odor 43, Urias 29, Mateo 20, Nevin 16, Hays 15, McKenna 12, Chirinos 9, Stowers 5, Vavra 4, Owings 3, Mountcastle 2, Bannon 2, Rutschman 1, Aguilar 1

8th: Chirinos 28, Mateo 27, Mateo 25, Urias 13, McKenna 11, Bemboom 11, Nevin 10, Stowers 8, Arrauz 7, Hays 6, Gutierrez 6, Vavra 5, Henderson 2, Mullins 2, Phillips 1

9th: Mateo 89, Chirinos 22, Owings 16, Martin 9, McKenna 6, Nevin 4, Bemboom 4, Phillips 3, Stowers 3, Bannon 2, Gutierrez 2, Arrauz 1, Vavra 1

As you can see, only the 1st (Mullins), 3rd (Santander) and 9th (Mateo spots) were manned by the same player even half the time.  Mancini occupied the 2nd spot more than half the time while he was on the team.  But overall, there were tons of different combinations, and I expect that will continue to be the case.