Orioles Acquire LHP Cole Irvin from the A's for Darrel Hernaiz

[wildcard]

17 minutes ago, now said:

Jake Rill begs to differ:

While Irvin and Gibson will be locks for the Orioles’ rotation, the battles for the final three spots have tightened. Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells all pitched well at times last year and will be favorites in the mix, while Grayson Rodriguez, the club’s top pitching prospect, has a high chance of earning a rotation spot in Spring Training.

Austin Voth, DL Hall, Mike Baumann and Bruce Zimmermann are also starting candidates. Those who don’t make the rotation will either pitch out of Baltimore’s bullpen or start for Triple-A Norfolk to open 2023.

Yikes, this really changes our previous in-house outlook. Grayson no longer a lock, with Wells ahead of him by this account. Voth and Hall banished for now. Of course, things always change due to injuries, etc. So what we fantasize as a 5-man rotation really means 9-10 arms in the mix, as the season progresses. BTW John Means says hi, too.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cole-irvin-orioles-trade

Anyone can have an opinion.   I don't think he is right.  Irvin has a chance but he is far from a lock.   ST will tell.

[tntoriole]

A lefty league average starter who has more innings pitched both years than anyone in our rotation and is 28 with 4 years of control? 
And a prospect back.   For a surplus 15-20th prospect?
 

I like it.  

[MarCakes21]

34 minutes ago, now said:

Jake Rill begs to differ:

While Irvin and Gibson will be locks for the Orioles’ rotation, the battles for the final three spots have tightened. Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells all pitched well at times last year and will be favorites in the mix, while Grayson Rodriguez, the club’s top pitching prospect, has a high chance of earning a rotation spot in Spring Training.

Austin Voth, DL Hall, Mike Baumann and Bruce Zimmermann are also starting candidates. Those who don’t make the rotation will either pitch out of Baltimore’s bullpen or start for Triple-A Norfolk to open 2023.

Yikes, this really changes our previous in-house outlook. Grayson no longer a lock, with Wells ahead of him by this account. Voth and Hall banished for now. Of course, things always change due to injuries, etc. So what we fantasize as a 5-man rotation really means 9-10 arms in the mix, as the season progresses. BTW John Means says hi, too.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cole-irvin-orioles-trade

I could see the keep him down and then turn to a 6 man rotation to "limit his innings"....ie, make sure he doesn't win the ROY until the following year.

[RZNJ]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Anyone can have an opinion.   I don't think he is right.  Irvin has a chance but he is far from a lock.   ST will tell.

Let's put it this way.  Irvin would have to be awful to lose a spot and I'm not sure that would do it.   I'd call it a lock.   

[Spy Fox]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think picking up a below average pitcher is something that can be called a strong move.

It's a move. 

His results have actually been slightly above average for SPs the last two years. 

In 2021 the league ERA for starting pitchers was 4.34 and Irvin had a 4.24 in 32 starts. Last year the league ERA for starting pitchers was 4.05 and Irvin had a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts.

Average-ish starting pitchers who can stay healthy all year aren't too easy to find. We got one and only gave up a prospect who was going to have a hard time impacting our MLB roster at any point. Irvin isn't some huge upgrade but that's a strong move to me in terms of what we gave up and got in return.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

In 2021 the league ERA for starting pitchers was 4.34 and Irvin had a 4.24 in 32 starts. Last year the league ERA for starting pitchers was 4.05 and Irvin had a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts.

 

In 2021 his ERA+ was 97.

In 2022 his ERA+ was 94.

I stand by my earlier statement.

[waroriole]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In 2021 his ERA+ was 97.

In 2022 his ERA+ was 94.

I stand by my earlier statement.

That’s for all pitchers, not SP. 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That’s for all pitchers, not SP. 

Yes I know.

Oakland's Park Factor for runs scored was 0.953.

I stand by my earlier statement.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Three Run Homer]

9 minutes ago, waroriole said:

That’s for all pitchers, not SP. 

ERA+ also corrects for park effects.  Irwin benefitted greatly from pitching in the Oakland Coliseum.  So he's not as good as his raw ERA numbers suggest.  I still like the trade, however.  

[Three Run Homer]

One side effect of this trade is that it reduces the odds that DL Hall makes the opening day roster.  If the O's still want to give him a chance to make it as a starter (which I think is the right decision), then he will need to spend more time working at AAA on his command (also I think the right decision).  

[Spy Fox]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

In 2021 his ERA+ was 97.

In 2022 his ERA+ was 94.

I stand by my earlier statement.

I agree with the abstract statement he's a below average pitcher. (The peripherals agree with that as well.) Just pointing out that he's actually been slightly better than the average SP the last two years, while also producing an above average volume. Calling him a below average pitcher as the blanket analysis obscures that a bit. 

[Spy Fox]

3 minutes ago, Three Run Homer said:

One side effect of this trade is that it reduces the odds that DL Hall makes the opening day roster.  If the O's still want to give him a chance to make it as a starter (which I think is the right decision), then he will need to spend more time working at AAA on his command (also I think the right decision).  

Hall and the Rule 5 guy probably see the biggest decrease in their odds. 

I noticed Fangraphs booted Grayson from their projected OD roster. I really don't think the O's will be that dumb but after last summer I also don't want to assume anything until I see him on the mound in the majors. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I agree with the abstract statement he's a below average pitcher. (The peripherals agree with that as well.) Just pointing out that he's actually been slightly better than the average SP the last two years, while also producing an above average volume. Calling him a below average pitcher as the blanket analysis obscures that a bit. 

Considering roster construction and pitcher usage I don't give much value to the volume of innings pitched.

For the record I'm not saying he's awful, but this isn't a "strong move".

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

Hall and the Rule 5 guy probably see the biggest decrease in their odds. 

I noticed Fangraphs booted Grayson from their projected OD roster. I really don't think the O's will be that dumb but after last summer I also don't want to assume anything until I see him on the mound in the majors. 

Elias likes that extra year of team control.

I can see him trying for it since he's already decided that he isn't going to make a real push for the playoffs.

What are the odds he finishes high in RoY voting?

[wildcard]

41 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's put it this way.  Irvin would have to be awful to lose a spot and I'm not sure that would do it.   I'd call it a lock.   

This will not be about experience or who can pitch the most innings.   This will be about who is the best pitcher.    Irvin only pitched well in tha big park at home.   Put him against the starters in camp and he comes up 6th or 7th.