Orioles Acquire LHP Cole Irvin from the A's for Darrel Hernaiz

[InsideCoroner]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think picking up a below average pitcher is something that can be called a strong move.

It's a move. 

How is a LHP who put up 3.4 rWAR over the last two years a below average pitcher? It’s maybe not a move that any of us saw coming, but in return for a fringe top 30 organizational prospect while Irvin has four years of control left, if it’s not a strong move, I think it’s at least a very solid move. Unless you want to pick nits. 

[Spy Fox]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Considering roster construction and pitcher usage I don't give much value to the volume of innings pitched.

For the record I'm not saying he's awful, but this isn't a "strong move".

Well at least we both agree on your other statement. This IS a move. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, InsideCoroner said:

How is a LHP who put up 3.4 rWAR over the last two years a below average pitcher? It’s maybe not a move that any of us saw coming, but in return for a fringe top 30 organizational prospect while Irvin has four years of control left, if it’s not a strong move, I think it’s at least a very solid move. Unless you want to pick nits. 

Because an "average" player puts up 2 WAR a season.  3.4 < 4.0.

Since you wanted to use rWAR as your argument.

I don't think it's picking nits.  I think calling this a "strong move" is overstating the move.  A strong move would have been adding an actual #1-#3 pitcher like he said he was going to do.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Can_of_corn

[Oriole1940]

I can see Elias making this move.  It is the kind of move he makes.  Only time will tell if it is Good, Neutral, or Bad.  

[owknows]

This was a good move inasmuch as it got a reasonable return on a player who probably wouldn't have seen any MLB time with this club because he plays a position at which we have a bumper crop of emerging talent.

This isn't the last middle infield prospect that will be dealt.

[Sports Guy]

Things you like:

Throws a ton of strikes. His strike% has been over 4% higher than the league average the last 2 years.

His first pitch str% is normally 5+% higher than league average.

Walk rate is superb.

Back to back seasons of 30+ starts and 178+ innings.

He knows how to pitch. He isn’t missing a ton of bats and isn’t getting a lot of Ks but he should keep you games and not beat himself.

The other pitcher is probably someone Elias was interested in drafting and likes his stuff. Someone they are just taking a gamble on. 
 

Hernaiz is probably an underrated prospect in our system and he has some upside but he has no future here. It’s good that they got value for him now.

Fair trade that brings value to each organization.

Irvin isn’t the guy we needed and could have issues in our division but I think the deal is fine and gives you a guy who can be cheap for the next few years and under team control for several more years.

I don’t think you can be upset at all by this trade. 

[Tony-OH]

BLUF: Elias acquired a legitimate left-handed starting pitcher for a tweener prospect that plays a position of organizational depth.

Analysis: The first place I go to when the Orioles acquire a big league pitcher is Baseball savant to look at his stuff and on first look, if you go by his 2022 percentiles it doesn't look very good.

But when you look at the results, things look a lot better:

The next step with to try and figure out how he has success and what jumped out at me was how much success he has with a low spin rate 90.7 MPH 4-seamer. He actually gets his best WHIFF rates from the pitch, but how? From what I see he gets 99% active spin and that must allow that pitch to play up. Consider Bruce Zimmermann's 4-seamer is about 1 MPH faster but has just an 81% active spin despite having almost 400 more RPM on his spin rate than Irvin. Zimmermann's fastball is absolutely creamed by major league hitters and he has just a 12% whiff rate.

Irvin also sinks the ball about 1 mph slower but they come out of the same "tunnel" so one kinda stays on plane more and the other sinks. I think that helps that 4-seamer play up.

The curveball and change are ok, but nothing special. Occasionally the curveball gets real good break horizontally and others times not as much which makes me wonder if he's doing that on purpose or sometimes it just backs up on him.

Last year he pitched very well against lefties (.638 OPS) so I'd imagine teams will use righties against him which should help him with the Orioles cavernous dimensions in left and left center.

He slots in the rotation this year and gives them more innings that they can count on a bit. We have to remember that Grayson may only have 100-120 innings to give this year and Wells might be better in a relief role overall, so I'm good with giving the rotation that left-handed mix.

You can read more about Darrel Hernaiz by clicking on his name, but in summary, he's a tweener guy for me who has a little upside to be a starter, but has to develop more consistent game power to move into a starter role. Then, where does he play because he doesn't have the arm strength for SS and has accuracy problems everywhere on the diamond. 

Could he put it together at 2B and become a guy, perhaps, but he's worth getting a cheap major league starter who should give the team 180 innings of average major league pitching out of the rotation.

I don't know much about Kyle Virbitsky but when I take a longer look I'll let you know.

Overall, I like this trade as it improves the team, but it pretty much closes the door on the Orioles bringing in an impact starting pitcher this offseason.

[HOF19]

This is as an 'Orioles 2023 offseason move " as can be ..........A 3 letter word DEFINES this Orioles offseason in its ENTIRETY  and that word is >>>>> MEH !

[Spy Fox]

I've already talked about how I like the move, but it's interesting this is the trade Elias went with. There were probably discussions, or at least the option of discussions, on trades with better prospects leaving the org and a better pitcher in return.

Choosing this one tells me he didn't like the trade price of other options and maybe prioritized holding on to our top 5 to 10 guys over getting a better pitcher. We'll see how it goes but I'm not sure that's the right call in our position.

[Bahama O's Fan]

22 minutes ago, HOF19 said:

This is as an 'Orioles 2023 offseason move " as can be ..........A 3 letter word DEFINES this Orioles offseason in its ENTIRETY  and that word is >>>>> MEH !

That's what I said literally at every transaction. Externally, I don't know if we've improved the team much at all. Internally, with more playing time for young players, there should be improvement

[Jim'sKid26]

To my man Kyle Virbitsky:  We are!

[Just Regular]

4 minutes ago, Jim&#x27;sKid26 said:

To my man Kyle Virbitsky:  We are!

80 innings in the California League was his most on one team as he went through both A-ball levels.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=8&stats=pit&qual=80&type=1&team=&season=2022&seasonEnd=2022&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=11,1

Link shows him 2nd in the league at K-BB% among guys logging that many innings there last year.    The 4.78 ERA was 9th of the 26 guys who got there in that hitter's league.

30+ innings in the High-A Midwest League (it still doesn't feel right California is Low-A, and Midwest is High-A), the K-BB% was around 60th out of 190 guys (Minnesota Cade Povich showed up higher in that listing).

 

[rudyrooster]

Here's hoping Elias/Sig have some of that "special sauce" ready for Irvin.

[jabba72]

1 minute ago, rudyrooster said:

Here's hoping Elias/Sig have some of that "special sauce" ready for Irvin.

I think they will.

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well THOSE people are just silly. 

Just like those people that thought John Angelos and the O's would make significant free agent additions (I was one of them).