Pecota has the Orioles with only a 3% chance to make the playoffs

[Going Underground]

 

[Can_of_corn]

That's what 30 times better a shot than last year?

Sign me up!

[deward]

Probably more realistic than expecting 90 wins

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That's what 30 times better a shot than last year?

Sign me up!

And infinitely more than in 2021.  Actually, I think that was Fangraphs, not PECOTA.

They have us scoring 15 fewer runs than in 2022, while allowing 22 more runs than last year.  I think the former is less likely than the latter.   

Does anyone have the individual projections on the O’s players?
 

[Sports Guy]

I loathe these projections.

[Moose Milligan]

Shove it up your ass, Pecota.   

[Just Regular]

A Buck favorite.     Wonder if Hyde will lean into this as much as he did, or what Buck's angle will be with his Mets forecast for near 100 wins.

I know Dan Szymborski actively manages ZiPs and often in chats or articles describes its ongoing refinement.    I don't recall seeing much at all what if anything BP has done with PECOTA since Nate Silver left.   I don't know for example whether PECOTA does anything at all with the newfangled Statcast data.    It might be a 2005 Corolla compared to some of the others in the baseball interwebs.

I do know BP's aircraft carrier product this offseason rolled out with some fanfare at their site is their newest attempt at a defensive number.

[DirtyBird]

I've always preferred Marsala anyway

[Frobby]

23 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I loathe these projections.

Eh, they’re just entertainment.  And they’re good for getting a chip on your shoulder.  

When I was a kid, there were about 5-6 magazines that would come out with their predicted standings in the spring.  No math or science behind it, just some writer’s wild-ass guess.  But they were fun to read.  And probably not much more inaccurate than Pecota, ZiPS, etc.  
 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Eh, they’re just entertainment.  And they’re good for getting a chip on your shoulder.  

When I was a kid, there were about 5-6 magazines that would come out with their predicted standings in the spring.  No math or science behind it, just some writer’s wild-ass guess.  But they were fun to read.  And probably not much more inaccurate than Pecota, ZiPS, etc.  
 

That’s why I don’t like them. Literally anyone can come up with them. They mean nothing. 

[Spy Fox]

Projections gonna project.

[Pickles]

[Morgan423]

Projection system creator:  Okay, PECOTA, next we have the Orioles.  They at least moderately improved their team overall this off season, they were a .500ish team last year, AND they play almost two dozen fewer games against the AL East this season.  What do you think?

PECOTA: 73 wins!

Projection system creator:  My work here is done.  Nailed it!  
 

[Griffey]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Eh, they’re just entertainment.  And they’re good for getting a chip on your shoulder.  

When I was a kid, there were about 5-6 magazines that would come out with their predicted standings in the spring.  No math or science behind it, just some writer’s wild-ass guess.  But they were fun to read.  And probably not much more inaccurate than Pecota, ZiPS, etc.  
 

Street & Smith's baseball yearbook used to be the Bible in my house all summer long.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Griffey said:

Street & Smith's baseball yearbook used to be the Bible in my house all summer long.

I had a bunch, I even bought some used.