Can Mateo and Mullins combine for 100 steals.

[wildcard]

The problem with these two getting to 50 steals is playing time.   Gunnar is the big dog in the infield and O's mgt has indicated that he will split time between SS/3B.   That will cut into Mateo playing time at SS.    

Mullins has to prove he can hit lefties to be an everyday player.   If he doesn't hit lefties better than last year he is a platoon  player.

With these realities facing Mateo and Mullins its hard to see either stealing 50 bases.

[Jammer7]

7 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Am I missing something here?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league?view=statcast&nav=pitching&season=2022

It looks to me like the Orioles were exactly league average in GB% at 43.6%.

Adding Gibson and Irvin is going to change that, no?

[Jammer7]

6 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I doubt any deal is in the works.  But it's simple,  he's fantastic with the glove, but so poor with the bat it's just hard to have him in the lineup consistently if there are viable options.  Playing Gunnar over Mateo at short makes the overall team better.   Sure, the defense takes a small step back, but the offense takes a giant leap forward.  That said, I'm not sure I like moving Gunnar from 3rd, but if you ask me who I'd rather be on the bench more, Mateo or Urias,  to make room for Gunnar, I'm sitting Mateo.  I think Mateo needs to come out of the gate quickly, swinging a hot bat, or else he's going into a utility/part time role, Pending injuries of course.

I get that Gunnar’s bat is better, absolutely. Well said post. I think Mateo still has upside with his bat, and there is good value in a trade with him.

Personally, I am also not a big fan of moving the SS and 3B around often to other positions at the MLB level. I guess we’ll see how it goes. 

The competition this Spring will be something I watch closely. Gunnar is the future, somewhere. Urias might just figure out how to get the ball in the air more to take advantage of his exit velo. Mateo was fun to watch last year, and I want to see if playing five days a week can help him learn better swing decisions. It may not be likely, but he made huge strides in his first everyday chance to play SS. Ortiz will make someone expendable soon.

[Big Al]

11 hours ago, Big Al said:

I predict within the next five years, someone will steal 100 in one season. 

Better?

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

Adding Gibson and Irvin is going to change that, no?

Irvin's career rate is 37.3%

Gibson does throw a ton of ground balls but he's only one man.

 

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

The problem with these two getting to 50 steals is playing time.   Gunnar is the big dog in the infield and O's mgt has indicated that he will split time between SS/3B.   That will cut into Mateo playing time at SS.    

Mullins has to prove he can hit lefties to be an everyday player.   If he doesn't hit lefties better than last year he is a platoon  player.

With these realities facing Mateo and Mullins its hard to see either stealing 50 bases.

If they thought Mullins was a platoon guy, they’d have traded him.  I don’t see a world, short of him OPSing sub .710, that he is a platoon.  

[emmett16]

1 hour ago, Jammer7 said:

I get that Gunnar’s bat is better, absolutely. Well said post. I think Mateo still has upside with his bat, and there is good value in a trade with him.

Personally, I am also not a big fan of moving the SS and 3B around often to other positions at the MLB level. I guess we’ll see how it goes. 

The competition this Spring will be something I watch closely. Gunnar is the future, somewhere. Urias might just figure out how to get the ball in the air more to take advantage of his exit velo. Mateo was fun to watch last year, and I want to see if playing five days a week can help him learn better swing decisions. It may not be likely, but he made huge strides in his first everyday chance to play SS. Ortiz will make someone expendable soon.

I think having two guys that can capably play the most demanding defensive position (that isn’t C)is only a good thing.  SS takes a toll and keeping a defender fresh can only help IMO.  I  don’t think you lose an edge by taking a break a couple times a week. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by emmett16

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, forphase1 said:

if you ask me who I'd rather be on the bench more, Mateo or Urias,  to make room for Gunnar, I'm sitting Mateo.  

I think that’s the million dollar question.  
Mateo: 3.4 rWAR, 2.8 fWAR in 150 games.

Urias: 3.6 rWAR, 2.6 fWAR in 118 games.

Probably a slight edge to Urias, but it’s close.   I think Hyde will try to keep everyone involved.   

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

If they thought Mullins was a platoon guy, they’d have traded him.  I don’t see a world, short of him OPSing sub .710, that he is a platoon.  

Mullins OPS vs lefties was 579 last season.    And no they are not going to trade  him because he hit 782 vs righties last year and he plays great defense in CF.

McKenna had a 794 OPS vs lefties last season and Hyde did platoon them toward the end of the season.

 

[emmett16]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mullins OPS vs lefties was 579 last season.    And no they are not going to trade  him because he hit 782 vs righties last year and he plays great defense in CF.

McKenna had a 794 OPS vs lefties last season and Hyde did platoon them toward the end of the season.

 

Fair point.  I knew he had some troubles v LHP, guess I didn't realize it was that bad.  

[Orioles0615]

Doesn't Mateo have to get on base first?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Orioles0615 said:

Doesn't Mateo have to get on base first?

New rule this year.   You can steal first.       

Well, not really, but there will be more rule changes.

[eddie83]

How much do we want Mullins running in front of Adley and the rest of the middle of the order? Especially with the shift rules now. 

[jamalshw]

20 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

How much do we want Mullins running in front of Adley and the rest of the middle of the order? Especially with the shift rules now. 

Enough to further distract the pitcher and give Adley even better pitches to hit. With the limited times throwing over and the pitch clock there will be more pressure on the pitchers when guys that can steal are on. I wouldn't mind the threat of Mullins going to get in the pitchers' head and cause him to rush a bit. 

Of course all that said, I don't see either guy stealing 50 bases. I think 30-40 is about tops for Mullins and less than that for Mateo as I don't think he gets enough playing time to get more (though he could find himself in quite a few pinch runner situations). 

[oriole]

Henderson, Mateo, and Urias each had breakout years. They’ve got to continue on that success to get the playing time. It’s hard to write anything in stone right now since we don’t know if Mateo will all the sudden be an average SS and then any benefit of elite defense to make up for the abysmal bat will be gone. Or maybe Henderson’s breakout year was an outlier. Mullins’ breakout year was 2021 and it’s pretty clear at this point that that was an outlier, not the norm. He’s essentially a defensively gifted platoon player. Is that who Urias ends up as? 
 

Mullins may get significantly less ABs this year based on his struggles against LHP. Mateo seems destined to get significantly less ABs this year because of the additions of Henderson as a full time player and the Frazier signing.

If Mullins and Mateo each got 600 PA then maybe we’d see 100 SB between them. I don’t know if they’ll get that much playing time though.