Jackson Holliday 2023

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I think people remember some guy named Adley Rutschman.  Took him THREE years to make his debut!        Plus he was much older.   

I would be curious to see a detailed look at how Holliday is performing at low A and high A compared to the last several 1:1 picks.

One of those years was cancelled and 2019 isn’t really much of a season.

The Os also weren’t good, so they held him back too long.

Edited May 19, 2023 by Sports Guy

[deward]

2 hours ago, Aglets said:

I think people remember some guy named Adley Rutschman.  Took him THREE years to make his debut!        Plus he was much older.   

I would be curious to see a detailed look at how Holliday is performing at low A and high A compared to the last several 1:1 picks.

He probably would have been up at some point in 2021 if he hadn't lost a year to the pandemic.

[DocJJ]

His numbers are like video-game numbers.... 

 

If you projected his current season's stats over a full year:  .390 25 HR 130 RBI 40 steals.   That's mind-boggling.   Maybe he's just riding a serious hot streak and will come down to earth a bit?  Or maybe he's just really that good and should go to Bowie soon...

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

His numbers are like video-game numbers.... 

 

If you projected his current season's stats over a full year:  .390 25 HR 130 RBI 40 steals.   That's mind-boggling.   Maybe he's just riding a serious hot streak and will come down to earth a bit?  Or maybe he's just really that good and should go to Bowie soon...

If  nothing else the walk rate will skyrocket hurting some of the other counting numbers.

 

[DocJJ]

40 steals?  Did we know he had wheels?  I know catchers in the minors sometimes aren't very adept at catching runners but that number is eye popping....

 

 

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

40 steals?  Did we know he had wheels?  I know catchers in the minors sometimes aren't very adept at catching runners but that number is eye popping....

 

 

He’s stolen 7 bases and been caught 4 times at Aberdeen.   That’s one area he can improve in.

[Mr-splash]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He’s stolen 7 bases and been caught 4 times at Aberdeen.   That’s one area he can improve in.

Would be nice if Holliday can become a stolen base threat, but truth is I'm not the biggest fan of a franchise player having a lot of stolen base attempts. For 2 reasons. First, the possibility of getting caught stealing exists. Which if you're an effective base stealer can be overcome. More importantly though, I'm not sure you want the future of the franchise getting injured on a stolen base attempt.

[NCRaven]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s a crazy opinion.  But I don’t think that the predicate in the question posed (wRC+ of 200 in 40 games at AA) is very likely, even though Holliday has posted a wRC+ over 200 in the 31 games he’s played at low and hi A so far.  I’d love to see him put up those numbers and put this question to the test. 

If he'd simply asked "Does Jackson Holliday have a chance to play in the majors this year?"  it would have been a better question since hitting those numbers would be crazy.

[TheWall]

Just gave the most recent episode of "Future Projection" (Baseball America Podcast) a listen. They start talking about Jackson as the best prospect in baseball around 2:30 in and go for about 20 minutes before discussing the other top guys from last year's draft. Link below if anyone is interested: 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by TheWall

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Mr-splash said:

Would be nice if Holliday can become a stolen base threat, but truth is I'm not the biggest fan of a franchise player having a lot of stolen base attempts. For 2 reasons. First, the possibility of getting caught stealing exists. Which if you're an effective base stealer can be overcome. More importantly though, I'm not sure you want the future of the franchise getting injured on a stolen base attempt.

The franchise stolen base guy worked out pretty well for a guy named .... Barry Bonds. 

Not saying Holliday should be compared to him or that we want him to become the jerk that Bonds was. But just saying that if that is in his toolkit I want him to maximize all of the skills and abilities that he has.

[Grady]

From what I have seen he gets caught a few to many times. Does he have good speed or does he need to work on technique?

[DocJJ]

Obviously it's wayyy early and lots of things can change in the years ahead, but at this point in time I'm thrilled we chose Jackson at #1 instead of Druw Jones Jr, Brooks Lee, Jace Jung, Termarr Johnson and Elijah Greene!  

[Hallas]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I remember people saying it was crazy to think he could be up in 2024. 
 

People seem to forget what being the #1 pick means.

I think it's pretty nuts for a high schooler, even #1 overall, to go from drafted to the Majors in less than 2 years.  Torkelson was also 1 overall and it took him just shy of 3 years, as a college draftee.

 

It happens from time to time, sure, but it's still pretty nuts when it does.  Hitting the majors at age 20 (or 19) instantly puts him on a hall of fame trajectory.

 

The other thing is that there wasn't the level of hype around this pick as there was with other fast movers.  The fast movers out of the draft that come to mind are Griffey, ARod, Machado, and Harper.  But all these guys had a ton of hype around them.  The Machado/Harper draft was seen as one of the best at the top end in years.  And Griffey and ARod were all hyped up as future HOFers before they even stepped on a major league diamond.  People were debating whether we even made the right pick with Holliday.  (spoiler alert: we did)

Edited May 19, 2023 by Hallas

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think that’s a crazy opinion.  But I don’t think that the predicate in the question posed (wRC+ of 200 in 40 games at AA) is very likely, even though Holliday has posted a wRC+ over 200 in the 31 games he’s played at low and hi A so far.  I’d love to see him put up those numbers and put this question to the test. 

There is literally less than 1% that Holliday will see the big leagues this year regardless of how good he does. One you have controllability issues that are reality, and two, there are literally four legitimate options as an everyday major league SS ahead of him. 

So I guess it depends on your definition of crazy.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

There is literally less than 1% that Holliday will see the big leagues this year regardless of how good he does. One you have controllability issues that are reality, and two, there are literally four legitimate options as an everyday major league SS ahead of him. 

So I guess it depends on your definition of crazy.

I'd say the 1% is a scenario in which the O's make the playoffs and have a couple of injured infielders.