Jackson Holliday 2023

[Bemorewins]

6 minutes ago, deward said:

It's a stretch to call Arraez great, outside of so far this year. He doesn't rack up a bunch of doubles and triples, much less home runs. He doesn't walk a ton. He doesn't steal bases. He's never driven in or scored a ton of runs. As far as I can tell, he's just ok on defense. All his value relies on him hitting singles, and you have to hit a lot of singles to be great based on that. He's pulled that off so far in 2023, but before this year he ranged from ok to good. Maybe he'll spend the rest of his prime hitting like Gwynn or Boggs, but that's a lot to ask. Holliday will have a much easier path towards being great if he continues to show that he has other ways to impact the game.

I think that you may want to take a closer look at Arraz and what he’s doing and has done. He is 8th in the league with an OPS of about .900. That would rank guess where on our team….. Number 1. I don’t think that you get that by just being a singles hitter.

Oh and last year he was a 4 WAR player with an almost .800 OPS.

If “that is all” Holliday becomes, I will be thrilled! With the lineup that we have and will have we really won’t need Holliday to come up and mash/hit for great power numbers. If we can have 8/9 guys around an .780- .800 OPS like it looks we can get when all of our top prospects get here (including Holliday) and get a little experience, we will have a top 3 offense.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I think that you may want to take a closer look at Arraz and what he’s doing and has done. He is 8th in the league with an OPS of about .900. That would rank guess where on our team….. Number 1. I don’t think that you get that by just being a singles hitter.

Oh and last year he was a 4 WAR player with an almost .800 OPS.

If “that is all” Holliday becomes, I will be thrilled! With the lineup that we have and will have we really won’t need Holliday to come up and mash/hit for great power numbers. If we can have 8/9 guys around an .780- .800 OPS like it looks we can get when all of our top prospects get here (including Holliday) and get a little experience, we will have a top 3 offense.

I believe that you missed the key line where I said "outside of this year". Yes, if he keeps hitting .386, then he's great. I think you may want to take a closer look at his stat line; his OPS is almost entirely driven by being a singles hitter. He's just hitting a ton of singles this year. Time will tell whether this turns out to be a career year, or if he's actually a Hall of Famer. 

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, geschinger said:

It would be interesting to know what their approach to him is.  I wonder if they've been mostly hands off because of the incredible success he's has so far - maybe hoping he might fail a little bit in AA to the point where they can make the case they should do some tweaking of his swing.  Or maybe they are doing some tweaking now and we don't see it yet.

 

They have not been hands-off. He said the other day that they had tweaked his launch angle and it was helpful

[johnrambo]

9 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I’m not saying that you a wrong regarding his HR numbers. But the kid is such an elite hitter with bat to ball skills and swing decisions at the age of 19. If he is “only” a 15 homer guy that is okay with me as long as the other batting skills are elite. There is more than one way to skin a cat. How many homers does Arraez have? I think it’s 3 for the season and yet he is a great dominant player. The game is moving away from one dimensional/3 true outcome play IMO. The rule changes are designed to do that.

Is Holliday going to hit .380 in the majors?

[RZNJ]

1. He’s 19 and getting stronger

2. His overall extra base totals are strong

3.  His fly ball rate was very low at Delmarva but has become more neutral since moving up.

4. With his plate discipline and bat to ball skills, once he gets a bit stronger and starts turning on more pitches he’s probably an annual 20+ homer type of hitter.    I’d be surprised if he was anything less.

Edited July 17, 2023 by RZNJ

[Bemorewins]

6 hours ago, deward said:

I believe that you missed the key line where I said "outside of this year". Yes, if he keeps hitting .386, then he's great. I think you may want to take a closer look at his stat line; his OPS is almost entirely driven by being a singles hitter. He's just hitting a ton of singles this year. Time will tell whether this turns out to be a career year, or if he's actually a Hall of Famer. 

Did you not like his season last year? He didn’t hit .386 then.

Either way, back to Holliday. I’m not ready to write him off as “a singles hitter” at the age of 19. But I hold firm to the belief, that the game of baseball is moving away from the one-dimensional three true outcome player who is limited athletically. Most of the best players in the game now, are multi-dimensional. And the game is making more space (through the elimination of the shift) for hitters who are not just limited to being power hitting/launch angle obsessed. Even our own Adley is doing fine without having great EV.

Pathways have become open to more than one way to success. Just look at the O’s latest first round selection. He’s not a launch angle guy/power guy either.

[Bemorewins]

23 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

Is Holliday going to hit .380 in the majors?

That is VERY DOUBTFUL. But the question is does he have to? He will get stronger naturally as he transitions from being a teenager to an adult. But I’m not sure that he will ever be a great power hitter. Maybe he will develop that side of his game as he grows in strength? But either way, I like his chances to succeed.

Arraez, btw, was just an example of a player being very successful without hitting for a lot of power. He is not a comp for the kind of player that Holliday is projected to become.

[johnrambo]

17 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

That is VERY DOUBTFUL. But the question is does he have to? He will get stronger naturally as he transitions from being a teenager to an adult. But I’m not sure that he will ever be a great power hitter. Maybe he will develop that side of his game as he grows in strength? But either way, I like his chances to succeed.

Arraez, btw, was just an example of a player being very successful without hitting for a lot of power. He is not a comp for the kind of player that Holliday is projected to become.

Doesnt need to be a great power hitter. But I will be disappointed if Holliday doesnt become a 25 plus HR guy at the MLB level.

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Either way, back to Holliday. I’m not ready to write him off as “a singles hitter” at the age of 19. But I hold firm to the belief, that the game of baseball is moving away from the one-dimensional three true outcome player who is limited athletically. Most of the best players in the game now, are multi-dimensional. And the game is making more space (through the elimination of the shift) for hitters who are not just limited to being power hitting/launch angle obsessed. Even our own Adley is doing fine without having great EV.

Holliday will be fine.  He’s a mature hitter who will get better.  His hit tool and developing power are no question in my mind.  The GB rate isn’t an issue for me either.  As long as he’s squaring the ball up he’ll get his XBH.

I agree the league wants more athletic (multi-dimensional) players (especially the new bases and pick-off rules).  But it seems to me that eliminating the shift fosters the TTO types who haven’t learned how to hit other than pull side.  

[Bemorewins]

4 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Holliday will be fine.  He’s a mature hitter who will get better.  His hit tool and developing power are no question in my mind.  The GB rate isn’t an issue for me either.  As long as he’s squaring the ball up he’ll get his XBH.

I agree the league wants more athletic (multi-dimensional) players (especially the new bases and pick-off rules).  But it seems to me that eliminating the shift fosters the TTO types who haven’t learned how to hit other than pull side.  

IMO many guys (even guys who had no business doing so) were almost forced if they wanted to remain employed to try to hit over the shift instead of away from it. Even line drives up the middle (in any other era would have been excellent base hits) had become almost automatic outs. Now guys can who aren’t and shouldn’t be power obsessed, no longer need to be.

[johnrambo]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

That is VERY DOUBTFUL. But the question is does he have to? He will get stronger naturally as he transitions from being a teenager to an adult. But I’m not sure that he will ever be a great power hitter. Maybe he will develop that side of his game as he grows in strength? But either way, I like his chances to succeed.

Arraez, btw, was just an example of a player being very successful without hitting for a lot of power. He is not a comp for the kind of player that Holliday is projected to become.

Hes only 19. So obviously doesnt have his man strength yet. Hes AT LEAST 3 years away from that. Hes going to get stronger and maybe he can change his launch angle. But hes 6' tall so not exactly tall. Also is already fairly muscular. Doesnt have that wiry power build like Corbin Carroll, Manny Machado or Elly De La Cruz. Also doesnt have a big huge guy build like Chris Davis either. Hes never going to be a physically big or strong man. I'd be happy with 25HRs a season. I dont see him developing into a big power threat with his build. 

[Bemorewins]

16 minutes ago, johnrambo said:

Hes only 19. So obviously doesnt have his man strength yet. Hes AT LEAST 3 years away from that. Hes going to get stronger and maybe he can change his launch angle. But hes 6' tall so not exactly tall. Also is already fairly muscular. Doesnt have that wiry power build like Corbin Carroll, Manny Machado or Elly De La Cruz. Also doesnt have a big huge guy build like Chris Davis either. Hes never going to be a physically big or strong man. I'd be happy with 25HRs a season. I dont see him developing into a big power threat with his build. 

I don’t think that he needs to. All of the other requisite batting skills are very advanced/elite. 

[btdart20]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

IMO many guys (even guys who had no business doing so) were almost forced if they wanted to remain employed to try to hit over the shift instead of away from it. Even line drives up the middle (in any other era would have been excellent base hits) had become almost automatic outs. Now guys can who aren’t and shouldn’t be power obsessed, no longer need to be.

I think you have it backwards.  The TTO/pull-heavy/EV/LA trend began before the increase in shift usage.  The shift was an attempt to counter the swing change trend.  Now MLB just wants to have the offense and baserunners, so they banned the shift instead of waiting for the offense to respond to defensive trends.

[Bemorewins]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

I think you have it backwards.  The TTO/pull-heavy/EV/LA trend began before the increase in shift usage.  The shift was an attempt to counter the swing change trend.  Now MLB just wants to have the offense and baserunners, so they banned the shift instead of waiting for the offense to respond to defensive trends.

Yes I agree that the shift was a tactic deployed to neutralize those things. However, a byproduct of that is that every player got shifted on, even the ones who weren't pull heavy/power guys. Thus, it became incredibly difficult to get base hits on the ground as the advanced data knew where to play the infielders no matter who was at bat. Therefore, no one could hit for average and get base hits regularly, and were forced to try to swing for the fences or at least hit hard line drives into the outfield.

Now, the game has made a correction to that, and base hits are easier to come by through the infield. 

Like all things, it will take a couple of seasons for players to fully adjust and for guys to realize that they don't need to go about it the same way that they did before.

This relates to Jackson Holiday IMO because hopefully he is one of those players (all things point so far to the fact that he is) who is allowed to acclimate "to the new way of doing things" i.e. it is not a requisite that he sacrifices bat to ball/contact skills for more power/EV/LA.

[deward]

4 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Did you not like his season last year? He didn’t hit .386 then.

Either way, back to Holliday. I’m not ready to write him off as “a singles hitter” at the age of 19. But I hold firm to the belief, that the game of baseball is moving away from the one-dimensional three true outcome player who is limited athletically. Most of the best players in the game now, are multi-dimensional. And the game is making more space (through the elimination of the shift) for hitters who are not just limited to being power hitting/launch angle obsessed. Even our own Adley is doing fine without having great EV.

Pathways have become open to more than one way to success. Just look at the O’s latest first round selection. He’s not a launch angle guy/power guy either.

He had a .795 OPS last year. That's good, especially for a 2B, but I wouldn't call it great, or dominant. 

All I'm saying is that Arraez is every bit as one-dimensional as some low average slugger, just in a different way. I don't expect Holliday to fall into that category.