Jackson Holliday 2023

[Bemorewins]

17 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

You pretty clearly don't have a pulse on the sorts of things that athletes value. Apart from the generic quality of life metrics like climate/taxes that still beat Maryland (in the eyes of 20-something athletes), Atlanta/Houston are destinations for athletes because of the scenes/cultures. Baltimore isn't an albatross of a location like Cleveland, but no one without family connections is choosing to play for the O's because of their location. This has nothing to do with where I would choose to live but rather where athletes would.

Anyway. Hopefully we're not picking 1:1 ever again and getting a prospect like Jackson in that way. But look at the Dodgers or Rays; their farms are perennially overflowing despite not picking anywhere near the top of the draft. We can and should forever prioritize the system because we don't have anything else to rely on.

Are you serious with this or are you just arguing for arguing's sake?

Name the free agents who have chosen HOU as a desirable destination in the history of ALL of their professional sports franchises combined. I'll help... James Harden and ... who??? 

I'm not sure how many times that you have been to HOU in the Summer but it is quite miserable. Not something that would be attractive in the least to a baseball player spending the majority of his time there in the Summer.

Also, almost all Free Agents come down to whoever offers the most money. But I'm sure that you knew that. 

You speak about what 20 something athletes look for as though you are/have been one or are/have been an agent. If so, I think your points are fair and well taken. If not, it may be best not to make those kind of assumptions which could be very wrong.

Lastly, I am curious. Do you live in this community (the Baltimore metropolitan area)?

[Alasdaire]

 

28 minutes ago, Mr-splash said:

Bro, you couldn't pay me to live in Texas. You know Maryland is the richest state in the country with plenty more amenities than a place like Texas. Yea, Texas has low taxes, but that's also why they have crap police, public services, amenities, etc. You really advocating for the economic model of Texas? 

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Are you serious with this or are you just arguing for arguing's sake?

Name the free agents who have chosen HOU as a desirable destination in the history of ALL of their professional sports franchises combined. I'll help... James Harden and ... who??? 

I'm not sure how many times that you have been to HOU in the Summer but it is quite miserable. Not something that would be attractive in the least to a baseball player spending the majority of his time there in the Summer.

Also, almost all Free Agents come down to whoever offers the most money. But I'm sure that you knew that. 

You speak about what 20 something athletes look for as though you are/have been one or are/have been an agent. If so, I think your points are fair and well taken. If not, it may be best not to make those kind of assumptions which could be very wrong.

Lastly, I am curious. Do you live in this community (the Baltimore metropolitan area)?

As much as I would be happy to continue this conversation and point out that you guys are unironically citing considerations like access to green spaces as factors that an athlete would consider, I don't want to derail the thread about Jackson Holliday any further. The point is that being located in Baltimore isn't a draw for free agents, we can only outspend a handful of teams, and it will take years (if ever) to earn the reputation as a stable organizational that players want to play for. So in my eyes, investing in the farm is the most reliable way to ensure we are in perennial contention.

[Bemorewins]

7 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

 

As much as I would be happy to continue this conversation and point out that you guys are unironically citing considerations like access to green spaces as factors that an athlete would consider, I don't want to derail the thread about Jackson Holliday any further. The point is that being located in Baltimore isn't a draw for free agents, we can only outspend a handful of teams, and it will take years (if ever) to earn the reputation as a stable organizational that players want to play for. So in my eyes, investing in the farm is the most reliable way to ensure we are in perennial contention.

Graceful way to bow out…. 

I guess we can resume the Jackson Holliday talk now…lol

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, Alasdaire said:

The point is that being located in Baltimore isn't a draw for free agents, we can only outspend a handful of teams, and it will take years (if ever) to earn the reputation as a stable organizational that players want to play for. So in my eyes, investing in the farm is the most reliable way to ensure we are in perennial contention.

I don’t disagree with much of this, but if we have a couple of contending years and look poised to continue contending for several more years, I think it will be more attractive to FA.   I agree it will never be our principal mode of talent acquisition.  

[Paul in Virginia]

 

 

[emmett16]

Holiday gets a ton of infield hits.  

[Billy F-Face3]

3 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Holiday gets a ton of infield hits.  

I really wonder how that will translate and the competition's talent level increases with his promotions. I get a feeling it will be tough to get alot of infield hits off of choppers in the Big Leagues because of how good the infielders are at that level.

[emmett16]

3 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

I really wonder how that will translate and the competition's talent level increases with his promotions. I get a feeling it will be tough to get alot of infield hits off of choppers in the Big Leagues because of how good the infielders are at that level.

Have had the same exact thought.  

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Holiday gets a ton of infield hits.  

Well, it helps to have really good speed. He doesn't hit an extraordinary amount of ground balls (50.4% in Aberdeen), but I do expect that ground ball rate to decline as he grows into his man strength. His 26.9% Line drive rate is really impressive though. That's the line I look at along with his extremely low 9.2% swinging strike%. Only Prieto, Fontana, and Beavers (surprisingly) have a lower swinging strike percentage in the system among qualifiers.

 

[emmett16]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Well, it helps to have really good speed. He doesn't hit an extraordinary amount of ground balls (50.4% in Aberdeen), but I do expect that ground ball rate to decline as he grows into his man strength. His 26.9% Line drive rate is really impressive though. That's the line I look at along with his extremely low 9.2% swinging strike%. Only Prieto, Fontana, and Beavers (surprisingly) have a lower swinging strike percentage in the system among qualifiers.

 

He is definitely super fast.  I’m not worried about him being a slap hitter, it’s just something I’ve noticed.  Maybe it speaks more to his speed & hustle than anything else.  

Edited June 21, 2023 by emmett16

[baltfan]

Holliday's batting average is about to drop under .300.  Of course, he was never going to keep up his prior pace and everyone slumps, but perhaps teams have found a way to pitch him that he is going to need to adjust to.  

[baltfan]

11 hours ago, Paul in Virginia said:

 

 

What I like about this is that you can see that he held his swing back because he recognized the offspeed a little late, so he decided to Ichiro it and was half-way out of the box as he made contact.  

[Tony-OH]

Just now, emmett16 said:

He is definitely super fast.  I’m not worried about him being a slap hitter, it’s just something I’ve noticed.  Maybe it speaks more to his speed & hustle more than anything else.  

I don't know if I'd call Jackson a slap hitter. He hits the ball to all fields and actually hits oppo more than pull. That has zero to do with bat speed, but that he'll take his singles when he has them. 

I think Jackson is going to be high OBP, good speed, good defensive SS, with some pop kind of guy. He's got a similar approach we've seen Rutschman take this year where he's willing to sacrifice some power for better average and OBP. 

For me, Holliday is such an advanced hitter for his age that he's able to have the confidence to know that it's ok to get down in a count and "slap" at a pitch close because if he chops it he has the speed to beat it out.

I'm not sure I've ever personally seen, and definitely not in the Orioles organization, as advanced a hitter as Holliday at his age. 

Even during his 22-game "slump" where's he shown little power, he's getting on base because he's still working counts. He clearly is not seeing the ball well right now but is he "panicking?" I don't think so at all. 

Over his last 22-games he's slashing just .192/.370/.244/.614 but it's worth noting he's only not reached base safely by either walk or hit in just two of the 21 starts (he pinched hit in one of the 22). That is pretty incredible if you ask me. It kind of reminded me of what Gunnar was doing during his struggles earlier in the year where he was not getting knocks, but he seemed to be on base every game anyways.

The ability to still help your team offensively when you are struggling is a key ingredient for me in determining those truly special kind of offensive players. They find a way to get on base and help the team.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Holliday's batting average is about to drop under .300.  Of course, he was never going to keep up his prior pace and everyone slumps, but perhaps teams have found a way to pitch him that he is going to need to adjust to.  

Well, just as his BABiP was high before, I’d bet on it being low the last month or so. He is and will be fine. As I said the other day, his OBP is over 380 during this slump. Maybe he is expanding the zone a little more since they are clearly trying to stay away from him?

 

[baltfan]

20 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't know if I'd call Jackson a slap hitter. He hits the ball to all fields and actually hits oppo more than pull. That has zero to do with bat speed, but that he'll take his singles when he has them. 

I think Jackson is going to be high OBP, good speed, good defensive SS, with some pop kind of guy. He's got a similar approach we've seen Rutschman take this year where he's willing to sacrifice some power for better average and OBP. 

For me, Holliday is such an advanced hitter for his age that he's able to have the confidence to know that it's ok to get down in a count and "slap" at a pitch close because if he chops it he has the speed to beat it out.

I'm not sure I've ever personally seen, and definitely not in the Orioles organization, as advanced a hitter as Holliday at his age. 

Even during his 22-game "slump" where's he shown little power, he's getting on base because he's still working counts. He clearly is not seeing the ball well right now but is he "panicking?" I don't think so at all. 

Over his last 22-games he's slashing just .192/.370/.244/.614 but it's worth noting he's only not reached base safely by either walk or hit in just two of the 21 starts (he pinched hit in one of the 22). That is pretty incredible if you ask me. It kind of reminded me of what Gunnar was doing during his struggles earlier in the year where he was not getting knocks, but he seemed to be on base every game anyways.

The ability to still help your team offensively when you are struggling is a key ingredient for me in determining those truly special kind of offensive players. They find a way to get on base and help the team.

So the walk rate is really interesting to me.  Obviously he has a good eye, but a lot of times I feel like we mistake the walk rate during a slump with the player knowingly adjusting and working counts.  Instead, it is more that they are missing more strikes so they naturally fall further into counts and tend to walk more because of strike zone judgment.  If you look at Gunnar, his walk rate during his hot streak has been less than 5%.  Is he all of the sudden not as good at working the count.  No, he is just hitting the ball more often.  I guess my point is that guys are never as good at walking as they look during a slump or as bad at walking as when they are in a hot streak--except for Barry Bonds.