Padres Finalizing Extension of Machado

[JR Oriole]

I am glad to see the Padres spending money.  They will be a fun team to watch.  Even if the last years of these contracts aren't great, it won't matter if they win a title or two.  Their fans have never had a championship and WS trophies aren't awarded for being as cheap as possible.  So good for them for going for it.  

[geschinger]

43 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

I am glad to see the Padres spending money.  They will be a fun team to watch.  Even if the last years of these contracts aren't great, it won't matter if they win a title or two.  Their fans have never had a championship and WS trophies aren't awarded for being as cheap as possible.  So good for them for going for it.  

If they get a ring, it may be worth it.  If not ouch.   

They will be fun to watch, but so will the Orioles and as long as they are willing to ramp up payroll similarly to how Houston has done they won't have to spend any more than they spent in the mid 2010s and they'll have as good a chance for success as the Padres have but sustainably.  It won't be a short window before the wheels come off.

Edited February 27, 2023 by geschinger

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, geschinger said:

If they get a ring, it may be worth it.  If not ouch.   

They will be fun to watch, but so will the Orioles and as long as they are willing to ramp up payroll similarly to how Houston has done they won't have to spend any more than they spent in the mid 2010s and they'll have as good a chance for success as the Padres have but sustainably.  It won't be a short window before the wheels come off.

When you bet that much money on a few players, you’d better be right, or things can go south in a hurry.   The Padres should be excellent for the next few years.   After that, we’ll see.   

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who was it that kept on about how Manny couldn't hit sliders and wasn't that good?

I believe that was calmunderfire, who was anything but that.  He was right that Manny was having trouble with sliders at the time.   He was wrong that Manny wouldn’t figure it out.   

[Moose Milligan]

I don't know if all the Padres spending will help get them past the Dodgers.  From what I can tell, the Padres have gutted their system to make trades.  The Dodgers are always stocked with talent in their system.  

That said, I'm rooting for the Padres.  I'd like to see Manny and Soto get a ring.

[Too Tall]

Interesting follow. Who gets (buys) a ring first? Padres, Mets, or Yankees? But good for Manny. 

[Frobby]

Fangraphs thinks the Padres just agreed to pay Manny about double what he’ll be worth.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/san-diego-strikes-again-with-11-year-extension-for-manny-machado/

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs thinks the Padres just agreed to pay Manny about double what he’ll be worth.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/san-diego-strikes-again-with-11-year-extension-for-manny-machado/

Now I want to go back and check out the piece they did when he first signed and how accurate the ZiPS was.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Now I want to go back and check out the piece they did when he first signed and how accurate the ZiPS was.

They had him putting up 21.3 fWAR from 2019-22.   He actually rang up 16.5, despite the 102 games not played in the Covid season, when he piled up 2.6 fWAR in 60 games.  So, ZiPS overshot the projection, but not by much.  
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-padres-are-actually-signing-manny-machado/

[SouthRider]

I tried rooting for the Padres.  I even bought their hat.  I find their tv announcers too annoying.  They treat every Padre home run like it just won game 7 of the World Series.  The  "Slam Diego" thing also gets old. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 2/27/2023 at 7:29 AM, geschinger said:

If they get a ring, it may be worth it.  If not ouch.   

They will be fun to watch, but so will the Orioles and as long as they are willing to ramp up payroll similarly to how Houston has done they won't have to spend any more than they spent in the mid 2010s and they'll have as good a chance for success as the Padres have but sustainably.  It won't be a short window before the wheels come off.

Nobody can pay to guarantee a ring, they just try to build the best team possible and hope the dice comes up (whatever a good dice roll is). The Padres know this.

I don't know what their end game is. They pretty clearly are operating in a different world of payroll vs. revenues than anyone else.  Whether that means ownership is subsidizing the team out of their own pockets, or just making less profit I don't know.  Whichever the case, I doubt the other owners are happy about it. And I don't know if it's sustainable, especially in what may well be a post-RSN world.

[DrungoHazewood]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs thinks the Padres just agreed to pay Manny about double what he’ll be worth.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/san-diego-strikes-again-with-11-year-extension-for-manny-machado/

My best guess is that this is a contract signed by a team/GM who know that they're both likely going to be not in those positions by the time it blows up on them. What does a GM care if the team has $150M in dead money on the books when he's been in some other job for five years by the time it happens?

[Just Regular]

It is a fascinating puzzle, and happy for Manny he gets a super team, at least the next two years with Soto.

I heard a forecast they are basically at the luxury tax already next year with Arb estimates, and that is with Blake Snell and Josh Hader off the roster.

Peter Seidler is doing the Sportsman thing like most fans dream of.    I don't imagine he is that thrilled with AJ Preller's job performance, but he is still in the job.     Apart from now having "Get Your Guy" money like Dombrowski, my main impression of Preller is he was the architect of Buy All the Good International FA's before they change the rules that one year.     Seidler put I believe about $50mm+ into that, and not much came of it.     

A little bigger investment than Elias ekeing out a Cesar Prieto at the end of the cycle with $$$ we otherwise were just going to keep.

When they got Xander, a cool fact I heard is only the '27 Yankees had four 6-win players.    Manny, Soto, Tatis, Xander could give it a run.     They might need to - pitching is already a little moldy.

 

[Just Regular]

Manny just dropped a "hopefully Soto next" up on the dais with Seidler and Preller.

From the opening statements, it seemed to me during the negotiation Manny self-identified with a "young man" label.

Seidler's opening remarks celebrating the outcome he volunteered "Manny's a young man", and Manny piped in "correct".