Heston Kjerstad 2023

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, deward said:

I wouldn't be so quick to assume that Westburg isn't as good a prospect as Kjerstad. Westburg is the same age, has proven himself a level higher than Kjerstad, and can play more valuable defensive positions. No reason at all that Westburg can't be on a team with those other guys.

Kjerstad would probably have been in the Majors by now, if it hadn’t been for the 2 years lost by myocarditis, or whatever they called his heart issues. It’s like you love Westburg and that’s fine. But we have to be fair and factual.

[Bemorewins]

5 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

...And face LH starters about a hundred times a season. 

Does that makes sense to you? Or is that just hyperbolic speech/heavy exaggeration/an attempt at humor that I’m missing?

If you are being serious, can you name the last team that faced 80 LH starters in a season?

[glenn__davis]

28 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Kjerstad would probably have been in the Majors by now, if it hadn’t been for the 2 years lost by myocarditis, or whatever they called his heart issues. It’s like you love Westburg and that’s fine. But we have to be fair and factual.

But the myocarditis DID happen, and clearly affected his development.  I think it's awesome that he's rebounded so well and is having a great year and hope he continues.

I like Kjerstad a bit more than Westburg as well, but it's not like it's "unfair" or "unfactual" to suggest that Westburg should be included in the same sentence.  I think they were both ranked in various locations on the bottom half of top 100 lists or not on the lists at all.  Westburg has been raking at AAA for about a year now, that's impressive.

[glenn__davis]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Does that makes sense to you? Or is that just hyperbolic speech/heavy exaggeration/an attempt at humor that I’m missing?

If you are being serious, can you name the last team that faced 80 LH starters in a season?

Clearly was hyperbole to point out that that lineup might be a bit vulnerable to LHP.  Which it would be.

[Bemorewins]

32 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

But the myocarditis DID happen, and clearly affected his development.  I think it's awesome that he's rebounded so well and is having a great year and hope he continues.

I like Kjerstad a bit more than Westburg as well, but it's not like it's "unfair" or "unfactual" to suggest that Westburg should be included in the same sentence.  I think they were both ranked in various locations on the bottom half of top 100 lists or not on the lists at all.  Westburg has been raking at AAA for about a year now, that's impressive.

I don't want to take anything away from Westburg. I think he will be a very good hitter at the MLB level. 

However, due to the imbalanced approach of our draft strategy, we do not have the top of the rotation arm required to seriously compete in the AL postseason. All of our chief competitors have rotations that are much better than ours and much better suited for the postseason (save maybe Tampa who obviously has 1 pitcher who is FAR SUPERIOR than anything that we have). We are going to have to find a way to acquire an arm to even out the talent imbalance.

If you don't want to part with Westburg than Kjerstad will have to be the other option. Because it takes giving up talent in order to acquire talent. Some posters want to "trade away our vets" but the problem with that notion is that they don't posses enough value in and of themselves to fetch the kind of piece that we need. Other posters suggest that we trade Mayo, Norby or both. But I'm not confident that the value of that gets us what we want/need either.

If you want to say that Westburg and Kjerstad are similar in value, I don't have a real problem with that. I think one was a top 5 draft pick for a reason and appears to be regaining the form that made him so appealing originally. And the other has been raking at AAA for over a year now. So, I don't think you can really go wrong with either. But unfortunately, someone will have to go in order to help us get our roster more optimized.  

[Bemorewins]

41 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Clearly was hyperbole to point out that that lineup might be a bit vulnerable to LHP.  Which it would be.

How many of the guys that I mentioned have issues hitting LHP? I guess Gunnar, maybe Cowser a little, and sometimes Mullins (or at least he used to)?

[glenn__davis]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want to take anything away from Westburg. I think he will be a very good hitter at the MLB level. 

However, due to the imbalanced approach of our draft strategy, we do not have the top of the rotation arm required to seriously compete in the AL postseason. All of our chief competitors have rotations that are much better than ours and much better suited for the postseason (save maybe Tampa who obviously has 1 pitcher who is FAR SUPERIOR than anything that we have). We are going to have to find a way to acquire an arm to even out the talent imbalance.

If you don't want to part with Westburg than Kjerstad will have to be the other option. Because it takes giving up talent in order to acquire talent. Some posters want to "trade away our vets" but the problem with that notion is that they don't posses enough value in and of themselves to fetch the kind of piece that we need. Other posters suggest that we trade Mayo, Norby or both. But I'm not confident that the value of that gets us what we want/need either.

If you want to say that Westburg and Kjerstad are similar in value, I don't have a real problem with that. I think one was a top 5 draft pick for a reason and appears to be regaining the form that made him so appealing originally. And the other has been raking at AAA for over a year now. So, I don't think you can really go wrong with either. But unfortunately, someone will have to go in order to help us get our roster more optimized.  

I don't disagree with anything you've written here - I was just replying to what you had said earlier when you mentioned that Westburg isn't on the level of the other 6.  

I think we've all known for some time that there isn't going to be room for all of these guys.  I expected some trades in the offseason, Elias instead chose to kick the can down the road a bit.  We'll see where it goes.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

Kjerstad would probably have been in the Majors by now, if it hadn’t been for the 2 years lost by myocarditis, or whatever they called his heart issues. It’s like you love Westburg and that’s fine. But we have to be fair and factual.

I think it would be fair and factual to let Kjerstad prove himself at the same level as Westburg before we anoint him as the better prospect. Given the difference in defensive value, he's going to have to out-hit Westburg in order to do that. I like Kjerstad a lot, but he's not there yet.

[deward]

26 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want to take anything away from Westburg. I think he will be a very good hitter at the MLB level. 

However, due to the imbalanced approach of our draft strategy, we do not have the top of the rotation arm required to seriously compete in the AL postseason. All of our chief competitors have rotations that are much better than ours and much better suited for the postseason (save maybe Tampa who obviously has 1 pitcher who is FAR SUPERIOR than anything that we have). We are going to have to find a way to acquire an arm to even out the talent imbalance.

If you don't want to part with Westburg than Kjerstad will have to be the other option. Because it takes giving up talent in order to acquire talent. Some posters want to "trade away our vets" but the problem with that notion is that they don't posses enough value in and of themselves to fetch the kind of piece that we need. Other posters suggest that we trade Mayo, Norby or both. But I'm not confident that the value of that gets us what we want/need either.

If you want to say that Westburg and Kjerstad are similar in value, I don't have a real problem with that. I think one was a top 5 draft pick for a reason and appears to be regaining the form that made him so appealing originally. And the other has been raking at AAA for over a year now. So, I don't think you can really go wrong with either. But unfortunately, someone will have to go in order to help us get our roster more optimized.  

I don't think you necessarily need to part with any of the top guys to get a TOR starter. Houston didn't give up any top 100 prospects to get Gerrit Cole, and one guy around #50 to get Justin Verlander. I suspect that Elias will do everything he can to try and replicate those kind of moves before he bites the bullet and starts moving any of his high draft picks. 

[Bemorewins]

5 minutes ago, deward said:

I don't think you necessarily need to part with any of the top guys to get a TOR starter. Houston didn't give up any top 100 prospects to get Gerrit Cole, and one guy around #50 to get Justin Verlander. I suspect that Elias will do everything he can to try and replicate those kind of moves before he bites the bullet and starts moving any of his high draft picks. 

A 50ish prospect would be Westburg or Kjerstad.

It would be great to land a TOR starter without parting with any top talent. But the odds aren't very good on that happening. I would imagine even a Stroman type would cost something like Mayo or Beavers.

[deward]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

A 50ish prospect would be Westburg or Kjerstad.

It would be great to land a TOR starter without parting with any top talent. But the odds aren't very good on that happening. I would imagine even a Stroman type would cost something like Mayo or Beavers.

Which is what it took to acquire a Hall of Famer with two years left on his contract. Aim for something a little lower and maybe you're only giving up a Hall, Norby, or Ortiz. FWIW, I suspect Elias values Mayo as much as Kjerstad and Westburg. 

[Bemorewins]

1 minute ago, deward said:

Which is what it took to acquire a Hall of Famer with two years left on his contract. Aim for something a little lower and maybe you're only giving up a Hall, Norby, or Ortiz. FWIW, I suspect Elias values Mayo as much as Kjerstad and Westburg. 

I guess someone values Hall? He's still top 100 on some list. I'm just not very high on a guy his age who still hasn't mastered AAA. I don't think Norby can headline a package for a top of the rotation starter with more than just this season on the contract. Ortiz is interesting because some here believe he's as good or better than Westburg given the defensive value.

If the package of players that you mentioned is all it would take to get a TOR starter, I would be through the moon! Mayo looks like a Mountcastle type with better OBP skills. A low BA guy who will be dependent on slugging percentage to derive value.

[deward]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I guess someone values Hall? He's still top 100 on some list. I'm just not very high on a guy his age who still hasn't mastered AAA. I don't think Norby can headline a package for a top of the rotation starter with more than just this season on the contract. Ortiz is interesting because some here believe he's as good or better than Westburg given the defensive value.

If the package of players that you mentioned is all it would take to get a TOR starter, I would be through the moon! Mayo looks like a Mountcastle type with better OBP skills. A low BA guy who will be dependent on slugging percentage to derive value.

The key would be to look for guys on short contracts and then try to extend them after they get here. Use just enough prospect capital to buy a year of a guy and see if he'll stay. 

[Bemorewins]

30 minutes ago, deward said:

The key would be to look for guys on short contracts and then try to extend them after they get here. Use just enough prospect capital to buy a year of a guy and see if he'll stay. 

Ok this is where we have a point of departure. I have seen absolutely no indication that John Angelo’s is interested in the Orioles winning let alone spending real money to keep/sign an impact starting pitcher. I will have to believe that when I see it.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

I don't want to take anything away from Westburg. I think he will be a very good hitter at the MLB level. 

However, due to the imbalanced approach of our draft strategy, we do not have the top of the rotation arm required to seriously compete in the AL postseason. All of our chief competitors have rotations that are much better than ours and much better suited for the postseason (save maybe Tampa who obviously has 1 pitcher who is FAR SUPERIOR than anything that we have). We are going to have to find a way to acquire an arm to even out the talent imbalance.

If you don't want to part with Westburg than Kjerstad will have to be the other option. Because it takes giving up talent in order to acquire talent. Some posters want to "trade away our vets" but the problem with that notion is that they don't posses enough value in and of themselves to fetch the kind of piece that we need. Other posters suggest that we trade Mayo, Norby or both. But I'm not confident that the value of that gets us what we want/need either.

If you want to say that Westburg and Kjerstad are similar in value, I don't have a real problem with that. I think one was a top 5 draft pick for a reason and appears to be regaining the form that made him so appealing originally. And the other has been raking at AAA for over a year now. So, I don't think you can really go wrong with either. But unfortunately, someone will have to go in order to help us get our roster more optimized.  

I don't think Elias will trade for a TOR starter at the deadline.   He has Wells, Gibson, Kremer and Bradish.     GRod will improve his command at AAA and be back.   They may keep him down there to limit his innings so he is ready for the playoffs.   Means is due back in August.  And Hall is an unknown at this point but not forgotten at least by me.  I think Irvin  may be in the rotation until GRod and Means are ready.

What I think Elias will be looking for at the deadline in a veteran reliever or two.   And he will have young players to trade that don't fit in the O's future.  Stowers, Norby, Haskin  and Prieto to name a few.  The think Frazier could be traded.

Westburg looks like the O's second baseman of the future to me.   And Kerstad is the RF/1B/DH that hits the heck out of the ball.