Kyle Bradish 2023

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I absolutely agree that Wells and Hall will both get looks as starters next spring.  Do you think there will be no other competition?  It’s not a rhetorical question.  I think Irvin will get another look, McDermott might, and they could bring someone in from the outside.  

Elias appears to be positioning Irvin as a spot starter/long man.  He is out of options next year so he has to stay in the majors if he makes the team.   He will be stretched out in the spring.  McDermott will be in ST as a starter but probably begins the season at AAA.  He does not have to add to the 40 man roster.  Elias is always looking to cheaply add to the O's organization.

[Flash- bd]

For me next season's rotation should be: GRod, Bradish, Means, Kremer, Hall with Wells in the bullpen and McDermott as well as rotation depth. 

I really don't see the need for an addition here. 

If we are going to add it should definitely be for an elite bullpen arm. That's where I'd use our prospect assets to go for. 

Could also look into packaging some combination of Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Westburg, Cowser, Urías, etc. for a top bat and outfielder. 

[Moose Milligan]

Is there a way that Bradish could steal the ERA crown from Cole and Gray with less than a week to go in the season?

Bradish is at 2.86 after last night.  Gray is at 2.80, Cole is at 2.75.  

Cole goes tonight against a Jays team that's fighting for it's playoff life.  I'm not sure how many runs he'd have go give up to get behind Bradish, but it could be close.  

I'm assuming that if we clinch the division tonight or Friday night we're shutting down Bradish, he wouldn't start on Sunday against Boston, right?

[DirtyBird]

1 minute ago, Flash- bd said:

For me next season's rotation should be: GRod, Bradish, Means, Kremer, Hall with Wells in the bullpen and McDermott as well as rotation depth. 

I really don't see the need for an addition here. 

If we are going to add it should definitely be for an elite bullpen arm. That's where I'd use our prospect assets to go for. 

Could also look into packaging some combination of Mountcastle, Hays, Santander, Westburg, Cowser, Urías, etc. for a top bat and outfielder. 

How can you say Hall "should" be in the rotation?

[Just Regular]

Both lefty and righty bats are slugging .333 off him for the year.

There is an OBP split - 294 to 262.

Last year lefty Bats got him for .800 OPS before he much had the sinker as a tool going away from them.

I've wondered if Bradish is our Lance McCullers, all the way through if the Sigbot will recommend he throw 40 straight sliders at some high leverage moment.

Hopefully Grayson stays on track as "a Forrest Whitley that works".

[Billy F-Face3]

I've always been highly bullish on Bradish as well, and he's exceeded even my expectations this season. Back in July in one of the game threads, I posted something to the effect that I thought he could develop into a top of the rotation pitcher but I tempered it (because I know I'm biased with Orioles players) by saying he might become a #2. I got a little bit of push back in that thread for even going that high.

Kyle Bradish has far exceeded all our expectations and surpassed our best hopes. But there's still a ways to go yet, because the playoffs are about to start and there's a Championship to chase!

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, Sanfran327 said:

Why would they do that if they can find a viable 5th option for the rotation?

IMO, you don't make him a starter for 1/2 the season then go find someone else. If he gets any starts, it's as a spot starter IF he's stretched out enough to do that. 

It appears you don't value 15 starts at 3.30 ERA but I think Elias does.  That is what Wells does.  Its not that easy to find.

Edited September 27, 2023 by wildcard

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

It appears you don't value 15 starts at 3.30 ERA but I think Elias does.  That what Wells does.  It not that easy to find.

15 starts at a 3.30 ERA is great.  It's fantastic.  

But it's roughly half a season of starts.  You seem to not understand that.  

So is whoever they give the other 15 starts to, will that guy be able to match that 3.30 ERA?  

[24fps]

I think it remains to be established that the O’s are a “development organization” when it comes to pitching although it’s a good time to work on that goal. Let’s see if they use some of the surplus minor league positional talent to balance the lack of pitching there.  I would be a whole lot happier if a healthy Wells was number 7 or 8 in line for a rotation spot at the beginning of ST and the Zimmermans of the world were no longer in the picture. 

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

15 starts at a 3.30 ERA is great.  It's fantastic.  

But it's roughly half a season of starts.  You seem to not understand that.  

So is whoever they give the other 15 starts to, will that guy be able to match that 3.30 ERA?  

The 2nd half starter from a safe stand point could be Irvin.  He has a 3.58 ERA  in the 2nd half after the O's fixed him.  But I would not say that is their only choice.  McDermott could be ready in the 2nd half.

 They may stretch out Hall to start.   They can stretch him out in the minors if they have to.  He injured his back this year and didn't pitch for  a while but he is developing.  Elias showed this year that he does not give a darn about how many innings a starter pitched the year before in how he handled GRod.

And of course Elias is always looking from a cheap starter acquisition.   And does so regularly with Bradish, McDermott, Johnson and Povich.  He could do that again.

Edited September 27, 2023 by wildcard

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I think it remains to be established that the O’s are a “development organization” when it comes to pitching although it’s a good time to work on that goal. Let’s see if they use some of the surplus minor league positional talent to balance the lack of pitching there.  I would be a whole lot happier if a healthy Wells was number 7 or 8 in line for a rotation spot at the beginning of ST and the Zimmermans of the world were no longer in the picture. 

I don't think Zimmermann makes it through the off season on the 40 man roster.

[banks703]

54 minutes ago, baltfan said:

The issue isn't looking for another elite starter.  The issue is finding one.  Would you gamble on Nola or Snell?  I wouldn't.  Who is out there that you would trade for?  Cease? My issue as much as anything is whether the right guy is available.

I'm neither in love with nor hate Cease. I don't love the years of control but the truth is, the guy is still pretty elite at 27. We're getting the warm and fuzzies over Kyle Bradish (and rightfully so) but Cease ranks literally one place below KB on FanGraphs pitching rankings by WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&type=8

If they can get a guy like Cease for a combo of their prospects not named Basallo or Holliday, I think they should try. There's a surplus of talent in Norfolk that has to give at some point. Joey Ortiz's age 25 season was wasted in AAA. Norby is 23 and has no path to the big club if all of Gunnar, Holliday, Ortiz, Westburg, etc. remain with the organization. The White Sox are in shambles so perhaps a volume deal of good to great prospects (something like Cowser, Norby/Ortiz, McDermott, Wagner) gets it done?

I would avoid Snell like the plague. I think he's got some good years left in him but he's going to want $40 mil a year and that's a deal that will become an albatross. 

I don't hate the idea of Nola. I mentioned him in another thread. He's still relatively young (30) and could anchor a staff with Means as the elder statesmen. I find it ridiculous that I can say this, now in my late 30's, but I think the O's should try to get younger still because the culture of the team seems to be leaning more toward the fun, loose, intense on the field kids who get $#it done. I love what Kyle Gibson has done for the O's this year eating innings. It's been great but what hasn't been great is when he's thrown those absolute stinkers and it's crippled the pen for days, sometimes a week or longer. Nola has thrown 5 more innings than Gibson and has 1.5 more WAR.

Burnes would also be a guy to target if they could have a window to discuss a new deal with him, even if it's only to extend him another year so that they have him for two years. He was publicly critical of how the Brewers handled his arb case and I believe said he wanted to be traded. With only one year left on his deal, the O's could push Milwaukee's farm system to the top with some of their lower (higher ranked) prospects. I'd be all for trading farm system ranks with them to get Burnes.

And there are plenty of other options that we know will be available with more to reveal themselves during the off-season. The O's prospect capital will remove any difficulty in finding that elite arm to add to the rotation. Now, whether they let go of the prospects that will be required to complete a deal for that elite arm, that's a different conversation altogether. 

[dystopia]

31 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I'm neither in love with nor hate Cease. I don't love the years of control but the truth is, the guy is still pretty elite at 27. We're getting the warm and fuzzies over Kyle Bradish (and rightfully so) but Cease ranks literally one place below KB on FanGraphs pitching rankings by WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&type=8

If they can get a guy like Cease for a combo of their prospects not named Basallo or Holliday, I think they should try. There's a surplus of talent in Norfolk that has to give at some point. Joey Ortiz's age 25 season was wasted in AAA. Norby is 23 and has no path to the big club if all of Gunnar, Holliday, Ortiz, Westburg, etc. remain with the organization. The White Sox are in shambles so perhaps a volume deal of good to great prospects (something like Cowser, Norby/Ortiz, McDermott, Wagner) gets it done?

I would avoid Snell like the plague. I think he's got some good years left in him but he's going to want $40 mil a year and that's a deal that will become an albatross. 

I don't hate the idea of Nola. I mentioned him in another thread. He's still relatively young (30) and could anchor a staff with Means as the elder statesmen. I find it ridiculous that I can say this, now in my late 30's, but I think the O's should try to get younger still because the culture of the team seems to be leaning more toward the fun, loose, intense on the field kids who get $#it done. I love what Kyle Gibson has done for the O's this year eating innings. It's been great but what hasn't been great is when he's thrown those absolute stinkers and it's crippled the pen for days, sometimes a week or longer. Nola has thrown 5 more innings than Gibson and has 1.5 more WAR.

Burnes would also be a guy to target if they could have a window to discuss a new deal with him, even if it's only to extend him another year so that they have him for two years. He was publicly critical of how the Brewers handled his arb case and I believe said he wanted to be traded. With only one year left on his deal, the O's could push Milwaukee's farm system to the top with some of their lower (higher ranked) prospects. I'd be all for trading farm system ranks with them to get Burnes.

And there are plenty of other options that we know will be available with more to reveal themselves during the off-season. The O's prospect capital will remove any difficulty in finding that elite arm to add to the rotation. Now, whether they let go of the prospects that will be required to complete a deal for that elite arm, that's a different conversation altogether. 

That says way more about pitching fWAR than it does about Cease or Bradish. Cease is a mediocre starter who had one good year. 
 

Fangraphs had Bradish and Gibson at about the same fWAR for a good chunk of the season. Still has Gibson at 2.4. Cease and Gibson both have ERAs close to two full runs higher than Bradish. There’s no defense for that. fWAR for pitching is *terrible*. Nothing like fWAR for position players which is considered the gold standard of WAR. 

[ThisIsBirdland]

After last offseason, I don't think it's reasonable to ever expect this team to pursue a top FA. They were in a prime position to add major pieces and passed. To their credit (or maybe/probably some luck), their player development exceeded all expectations and their modest FA moves worked well enough. The model won't change though, not with JA out there talking about how they can't even afford to keep their own homegrown core in tact once they get past arbitration.

Bradish (5 years of team control), Grayson (6), Means (1) and Kremer (4) are a very exciting foursome to look forward to for next year, and I'm in the camp of evaluating internal options or a Gibson type FA for the fifth slot. With that said, I'm also in the camp that believes we have to move some high end minor league pieces this offseason. If they could land a Kirby/Gilbert type of player, that would be the best case scenario IMO. Seattle is losing Teoscar Hernandez and is very weak at 1B/2B. Would a package of Santander (1 year of control), Mountcastle (3) and Norby make sense for Kirby (5 years) or Gilbert (4)? I'd be on board for this assuming regular playing time for Kjerstad (RF) and Mayo (1B) in a platoon with O'Hearn.

[banks703]

26 minutes ago, dystopia said:

That says way more about pitching fWAR than it does about Cease or Bradish. Cease is a mediocre starter who had one good year. 
 

Fangraphs had Bradish and Gibson at about the same fWAR for a good chunk of the season. Still has Gibson at 2.4. Cease and Gibson both have ERAs close to two full runs higher than Bradish. There’s no defense for that. fWAR for pitching is *terrible*. Nothing like fWAR for position players which is considered the gold standard of WAR. 

Cease's 200k's and the terrible team defense that he pitches in front of suggest otherwise.