Jordan Westburg 2023

[Safelykept]

6 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I think there are ABs for Cowser and Westburg on this team right now. You could bring up both and send out O'Hearn and Vavra.  O'Hearn doesn't have much value on the team if Santander is going to play 1B even when O'Hearn is in the lineup. And while I like Vavra, he's redundant with Frazier on the team both being LHH contact first guys that play corner OF and 2B. With that said, in order for Cowser and Frazier to get ABs, Frazier loses the most playing time. 

Cowser goes to RF most days and Westburg plays 2B primarily. You can rotate Frazier in to get a day off for both of them on occasion (along with McKenna). With Mateo slumping Ortiz gets some of the time at SS and splits with Mateo. He can slide to 3B (or Westburg to 3B and Ortiz to 2B) to spell Henderson on occasion. At least until Urias comes back there are ABs to be had for both. 

The bench becomes: McCann, Frazier, Mateo/Ortiz, and McKenna. 

Once Urias is back, we can see where we are, but it's quite possible there's another injury that helps solve the "problem."

The possibility's are not endless but they are many.    If this front office can figure a way to go with 12 pictures ( which they already have done  for one game but obviously  cant be long term) that opens another bench spot. Just saying couple games here couple there.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Pickles said:

You're right about that.  I forgot how many games were played in 2020.  So it's more like 80% over the last four season.

I mean I guess my issue is if he's healthy he should be playing everyday for this team, or the equivalence.

You want him playing 80% of the time when he's healthy with the idea being that is what you can "depend" on him for.

I don't think that actually keeps him healthier though.  He misses games when he's hurt; he doesn't need to miss games to not get hurt.

No, I want him playing 80% of the time because I don’t think he’s good enough to justify 600+ at bats. Go back and look at his splits. Outside of 2019, he has had a poor OPS vs either righties or lefties. His OPS+ is ok but not great over his career.

Now, I will say that it is possible that he gets healthier and gets better. It’s not normal for that to happen at his age but it can happen. But I wouldn’t be banking on it and I certainly wouldn’t hold back top level, high ceiling prospects for that unlikely possibility.

I said yesterday that if he can handle first, that should give him another 1-2 starts a week. He can play the OF another 1-2 times a week (at least while he is playing well out there, as he is at the moment) and DH the rest of the time. 

His ability to play first gets him extra time for me.

You act as if I want to bench these guys. Your cindyluvsbrady like lovefest with them is over the top. Their careers tell you this. Outside of 2022, AS has a career WAR of 2.5..that’s in like 1400 or so at bats.  That’s not that good.

He isn’t some special player that you have to find at bats for. Maybe these guys aren’t either but we need to find out.

You aren’t going to pay AS 10+M a year going forward.

[Bemorewins]

26 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

I think there are ABs for Cowser and Westburg on this team right now. You could bring up both and send out O'Hearn and Vavra.  O'Hearn doesn't have much value on the team if Santander is going to play 1B even when O'Hearn is in the lineup. And while I like Vavra, he's redundant with Frazier on the team both being LHH contact first guys that play corner OF and 2B. With that said, in order for Cowser and Frazier to get ABs, Frazier loses the most playing time. 

Cowser goes to RF most days and Westburg plays 2B primarily. You can rotate Frazier in to get a day off for both of them on occasion (along with McKenna). With Mateo slumping Ortiz gets some of the time at SS and splits with Mateo. He can slide to 3B (or Westburg to 3B and Ortiz to 2B) to spell Henderson on occasion. At least until Urias comes back there are ABs to be had for both. 

The bench becomes: McCann, Frazier, Mateo/Ortiz, and McKenna. 

Once Urias is back, we can see where we are, but it's quite possible there's another injury that helps solve the "problem."

I don’t care for the idea of platooning top prospects. It seems like a waste of value. 

The best way to “solve” the overcrowded problem is going to be through trade. IMO a top starting pitcher will help the team more in the Fall, than having even more depth.

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No, I want him playing 80% of the time because I don’t think he’s good enough to justify 600+ at bats. Go back and look at his splits. Outside of 2019, he has had a poor OPS vs either righties or lefties. His OPS+ is ok but not great over his career.

Now, I will say that it is possible that he gets healthier and gets better. It’s not normal for that to happen at his age but it can happen. But I wouldn’t be banking on it and I certainly wouldn’t hold back top level, high ceiling prospects for that unlikely possibility.

I said yesterday that if he can handle first, that should give him another 1-2 starts a week. He can play the OF another 1-2 times a week (at least while he is playing well out there, as he is at the moment) and DH the rest of the time. 

His ability to play first gets him extra time for me.

You act as if I want to bench these guys. Your cindyluvsbrady like lovefest with them is over the top. Their careers tell you this. Outside of 2022, AS has a career WAR of 2.5..that’s in like 1400 or so at bats.  That’s not that good.

He isn’t some special player that you have to find at bats for. Maybe these guys aren’t either but we need to find out.

You aren’t going to pay AS 10+M a year going forward.

Again, you consistently undervalue these guys; that isn't me having a love affair.

You have consistently labeled them 1.5 -2 WAR guys.  Completely ignoring that Mateo and Urias both produced far more than that last year, and are on pace to at least repeat those performances.

You want to ignore the obvious improvement in health and performance that AS has shown over the last two years, and judge him on a lot of at-bats he received as a very young Rule 5 player whose development was clearly impacted.

But the greatest proof is in the pudding.  These guys are the very guys who have turned the franchise around.  If they were as middling as you claim, that wouldn't have happened.

Now, that doesn't mean I want to pay them 10 million dollars a year, or extend them for eternity.  But I'm not going to throw them out for every bright prospect that floats by when the team is one of the best teams in the league.

And that's what they are.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Again, you consistently undervalue these guys; that isn't me having a love affair.

You have consistently labeled them 1.5 -2 WAR guys.  Completely ignoring that Mateo and Urias both produced far more than that last year, and are on pace to at least repeat those performances.

You want to ignore the obvious improvement in health and performance that AS has shown over the last two years, and judge him on a lot of at-bats he received as a very young Rule 5 player whose development was clearly impacted.

But the greatest proof is in the pudding.  These guys are the very guys who have turned the franchise around.  If they were as middling as you claim, that wouldn't have happened.

Now, that doesn't mean I want to pay them 10 million dollars a year, or extend them for eternity.  But I'm not going to throw them out for every bright prospect that floats by when the team is one of the best teams in the league.

And that's what they are.

Well, when I said 1.5-2.5 WAR guys I believe I was talking about Hays and AS.

And Mateo has been that player for 1 season. You are grasping onto that as if that will be his career moving forward.

I think Urias will be solid for a while.

What 2 seasons are you talking about for AS? Are you talking last year and this year?  This isn’t a season yet. This is 1/4 of a season and he has been awful for most of it.  He has been healthy though…so far.  You want to dismiss where he was early in his career?  Ok, that’s fine. I don’t think that’s unfair to do.  How about 2021? He missed about 55 games or so and had a 720 OPS or are we omitting that season too?

And these guys didn’t turn around this franchise. They were part of the reason but far from THE reason. Adley, the new wall, the bullpen and unexpected performances from unlikely players are bigger reason. (Mateo does belong in that category)

AS was a 2.5 WAR player last year. Hays had a 1.5 fWAR last year and is even more unreliable than Santander.

These guys are role players. Nothing more than that.

[Safelykept]

13 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t care for the idea of platooning top prospects. It seems like a waste of value. 

The best way to “solve” the overcrowded problem is going to be through trade. IMO a top starting pitcher will help the team more in the Fall, than having even more depth.

 

[Sports Guy]

Oh and btw, the guys I want up here are the players that are likely to take the franchise to the next level.

The current crop of vets can’t do that.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t care for the idea of platooning top prospects. It seems like a waste of value. 

The best way to “solve” the overcrowded problem is going to be through trade. IMO a top starting pitcher will help the team more in the Fall, than having even more depth.

It’s not a waste of value. There is nothing wrong, especially in a contending year, to do that..as the season goes on, they either prove themselves to be everyday guys and they end up getting the at bats or they show warts in their game and that they shouldn’t play everyday.

Lots of games to be played to figure that out. The vets on the team aren’t bad players. They are solid role guys. Guys that title teams have. They shouldn’t be casted aside. (Well except for Frazier)

But they also shouldn’t stop the higher ceiling, future players of this team to continue to rot in Norfolk while they put up video game numbers..not to mention improve the defense.

[Safelykept]

Just now, Safelykept said:

 

 

Just now, Safelykept said:

 

You may not like the Platooning., but its becoming increasing obvious that that's the Organizational Strategy of this front office. Besides trades are generally made in July Not May   

[OriolesMagic83]

I think to fit both Cowser and Westburg on the team, 2 regulars at bats have to be sharply curtailed.  The obvious candidate is Frazier, who becomes backup IF/COF.  Can he even play 3B?  Then it's a choice between Santander and Mountcastle.  Santander woud play 1B against lefties, and one of the utility players would play DH (or Adley when he is not catching).  Mountcastle would play 1B against righties, although maybe that should be curtailed too.  Santander would DH or occasionally play RF when Adley needs a day DHing.

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s not a waste of value. There is nothing wrong, especially in a contending year, to do that..as the season goes on, they either prove themselves to be everyday guys and they end up getting the at bats or they show warts in their game and that they shouldn’t play everyday.

Lots of games to be played to figure that out. The vets on the team aren’t bad players. They are solid role guys. Guys that title teams have. They shouldn’t be casted aside. (Well except for Frazier)

But they also shouldn’t stop the higher ceiling, future players of this team to continue to rot in Norfolk while they put up video game numbers..not to mention improve the defense.

If this is truly a contending year as you said, as our record indicates (thus far), and as I believe it is; we are going to need better starting pitching in order to sustain this in the second half and succeed in the postseason. 

If we are going to be dogmatic about retaining all of our valuable commodities/prospects, how do you see us acquiring the type of starter that we need?

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

If this is truly a contending year as you said, as our record indicates (thus far), and as I believe it is; we are going to need better starting pitching in order to sustain this in the second half and succeed in the postseason. 

If we are going to be dogmatic about retaining all of our valuable commodities/prospects, how do you see us acquiring the type of starter that we need?

Well, you trade for it. You can’t keep everyone and we shouldn’t be trying to start a team entirely of rookies.

You do need those vet guys and we have some good vet players..just not many (if any) 600 at bats vet guys.

The reality is that those guys are few and far between. Most guys need more days off, be platooned, etc…that’s maximizing your roster. 
 

But yea, we need to trade for a very good starter and it needs to happen asap.

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, Safelykept said:

 

You may not like the Platooning., but it’s becoming increasing obvious that that's the Organizational Strategy of this front office. Besides trades are generally made in July Not May   

I believe most agree and know that the next trade window is not until the Summer. 

In the meantime, what makes sense to maintain (or even increase) some of our current guys value? Ortiz ridding the hence or playing sporadically doesn’t help his value, potential growth, or development. Westburg or Cowser getting sporadic ABs is the same.

Now if we play all of them as regulars and the succeed that would be the preferred outcome. Except that even in that, benching Urias, Mateo or even worse Santander and Hays (as a few suggested) hurts their value, no?

And if we bring the guys up from AAA and they do not succeed right away or struggle out of the gate for a while, like Gunnar has done, what does that do?

We may be best served to just hold tight right now until the deadline?

But I don’t see the org being able to be afforded the luxury of being dogmatic about platooning guys just to retain all of them. Some of them are going to have to go, so that we can get the type of pitching that we need in order to be a serious challenger in the postseason. There are VERY LOW odds that we can succeed in October to win 3/4 rounds with the current pitching talent as is. We just aren’t good enough. And I don’t believe that Means can fix all of that talent equation alone.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, you trade for it. You can’t keep everyone and we shouldn’t be trying to start a team entirely of rookies.

You do need those vet guys and we have some good vet players..just not many (if any) 600 at bats vet guys.

The reality is that those guys are few and far between. Most guys need more days off, be platooned, etc…that’s maximizing your roster. 
 

But yea, we need to trade for a very good starter and it needs to happen asap.

You will find no argument from me against what you are saying here. 

Realistically speaking, I don’t think a trade can/will happen until the window opens up at midseason. Until then, we may be stuck being frustrated as some guys have to “wait their turn”. We simply have a positional logjam at the moment. 

IMO - It would be a win if we were somehow able to come past the deadline being able to keep 2 of Westburg/Ortiz/Cowser AND still land a high impact starting pitcher.

[Frobby]

Westburg with his 12th homer already today.  

 

Edited May 18, 2023 by Frobby