Jordan Westburg 2023

[OriolesMagic83]

14 hours ago, Filmstudy said:

In 1972, Grich didn't play much in April (he played 4 of the first 18 games), but essentially played every game thereafter, finishing with 133.  That was with all of Johnson, Belanger, and Brooks on the team.  Perhaps like 2023, Grich had an easy time forcing his way into the lineup with OPSs for Johnson (.655), Brooks (.644), and Belanger (.482) "ahead" of him.  It's not the only time this happened with the Orioles, who 2 years earlier brought up Rettenmund with Blair, Buford, and Robinson all ahead of him.

For similar reasons, I'd advocate bringing Westburg to the majors and seeing who he should beat out on the fly, as was done with Grich.  The main change in the game that makes it difficult is the ratio of hitters to pitchers on the ML roster.  It was 16-9 or 15-10 in 1972 and it's 13-13 for a lot of teams today.

I'm not advocating the Orioles trade Westburg, but I also don't think playing him in the majors is likely to degrade his trade value and in fact it's more likely to increase it.

The O's minor leagues are so chock full of positional talent there are guys who would have made the majors long ago in most systems stuck in AAA.  Prime case is Westburg.  Frazier obviously made the situation worse, but it was going to happen regardless.  I think we will see 1 or even 2 top 100 prospects moved at the deadline.  Obviously Elias does not believe in drafting pitchers and Angelos is not going to pay free agent prices, so the O's have to get them some other way.  A trade is going to be a necessity by the offseason at the latest.

[vab]

25 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with your larger premise in that comparing other teams situations to this one is more apples to oranges. But IMO it is for a reason that you left unstated... We have a HORRIBLE owner. I am not very sorry that winning and spending is even a priority for JA. He seems to be focused more on how to maximize profits and do some community development. Thus until proven otherwise, even though we may speculate on trades for vets, I have seen nothing in JA's history or handling of the team that he would even green light adding  a contract like Goldschmidt.

I don't believe Elias prefers not to spend because of some philosophy he has, it is more of the case that he cannot spend on make big moves given ownership. I know some have spun his comments last trade deadline and into the offseason about "lift off" meaning something else. But IMO it seems kind of clear that ownership (as usual) served as an impediment to him adding to the team in a meaningful way. No one can convince that when Elias first made the comments regarding "lift off" that what he had in mind was an offseason of Gibson and Frazier. Of course, I could be wrong, but it just doesn't appear that he is in an environment where he has full ownership investment and support.

Finally, I don't see players that we have that we could trade for a top pitching prospect, unless you either want to move Mullins (which would be a horrible idea to me) or if you are proposing a prospect for prospect trade which rarely happens. Even so, that is more of a continue the rebuild move because as we have seen over the last few years with some of the best prospects in the game, they take time to develop. I think there is a very small chance that a pitching prospect can come and help in a meaningful way this year. More chances than not the performance that you get may be somewhere in the realm of Grayson's.

I would disagree with your last point here, they definitely have the prospects to trade for a top SP. Now, it would involve the guys most folks on here don't want to deal but in the real world you have to give up something to get something. 

[Bemorewins]

30 minutes ago, vab said:

I would disagree with your last point here, they definitely have the prospects to trade for a top SP. Now, it would involve the guys most folks on here don't want to deal but in the real world you have to give up something to get something. 

Beyond those that I mentioned, who else?

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I agree with your larger premise in that comparing other teams situations to this one is more apples to oranges. But IMO it is for a reason that you left unstated... We have a HORRIBLE owner. I am not very sorry that winning and spending is even a priority for JA. He seems to be focused more on how to maximize profits and do some community development. Thus until proven otherwise, even though we may speculate on trades for vets, I have seen nothing in JA's history or handling of the team that he would even green light adding  a contract like Goldschmidt.

I don't believe Elias prefers not to spend because of some philosophy he has, it is more of the case that he cannot spend on make big moves given ownership. I know some have spun his comments last trade deadline and into the offseason about "lift off" meaning something else. But IMO it seems kind of clear that ownership (as usual) served as an impediment to him adding to the team in a meaningful way. No one can convince that when Elias first made the comments regarding "lift off" that what he had in mind was an offseason of Gibson and Frazier. Of course, I could be wrong, but it just doesn't appear that he is in an environment where he has full ownership investment and support.

Finally, I don't see players that we have that we could trade for a top pitching prospect, unless you either want to move Mullins (which would be a horrible idea to me) or if you are proposing a prospect for prospect trade which rarely happens. Even so, that is more of a continue the rebuild move because as we have seen over the last few years with some of the best prospects in the game, they take time to develop. I think there is a very small chance that a pitching prospect can come and help in a meaningful way this year. More chances than not the performance that you get may be somewhere in the realm of Grayson's.

I believe, like you do, that ownership is the issue. Elias is so measured with his words that I cannot believe "lift off" meant Gibson and Frazier. I think his ability to add was lessened after he made those comments. And I believe that when he made those comments, he had every reason to believe he could add. But then he couldn't. Maybe that's nothing more than speculation but it seems pretty clear to me. 

[vab]

20 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Beyond those that I mentioned, who else?

Some combination of their 2 or 3 of their top prospects along with someone off the current major league roster like a Urias or possibly a Mountcastle could get it done. Holliday is probably close to untouchable at this point but everyone else should be available in the right deal. 

[Bemorewins]

15 minutes ago, vab said:

Some combination of their 2 or 3 of their top prospects along with someone off the current major league roster like a Urias or possibly a Mountcastle could get it done. Holliday is probably close to untouchable at this point but everyone else should be available in the right deal. 

I mentioned a prospect for prospect type of deal. Those are very rare though.

[bluedog]

3 hours ago, 7Mo said:

As much as I enjoy trying to figure out what Elias will do based on what happened with the Astros, or what the Rays have and are doing, I think there are very different circumstances here. One, Luhnow was very aggressive in everything he did. I don't see what that trade tells us about an Elias preference. Two, it's been said that Sig was very much against trading prospects for established players and three, the Astros had intentions of paying big money to retain established guys. 

Trying to read tea leaves, or take wild guesses, I'd say something like the Rays trading Willy Adames for JP Feyereisen and Drew Rasumssen fits more what Elias will try to do.

Or a different approach like a Hernaiz type for someone like Jordan Montgomery. 

Not trying to argue with your post, just my thoughts, I can't see Elias trading top 10 prospects for veterans but I could see him trading a top 10 player for someone he considers a top 10 prospect pitcher, regardless of the guys actual ranking with his organization. 

Appreciate the civil post. You make good points.

I can't imagine Elias sitting pat with 7 top 100 prospects (counting Rodriguez in that group) at AAA, two more (Holliday & Mayo) headed to AAA next year if not sooner and several more (Haskins, Prieto, Armbruster, Basallo, Willems) knocking on the Top 100 door.

I he does make a move, I think it must be an impact move, not another Cole Irvin type trade.

[7Mo]

48 minutes ago, bluedog said:

Appreciate the civil post. You make good points.

I can't imagine Elias sitting pat with 7 top 100 prospects (counting Rodriguez in that group) at AAA, two more (Holliday & Mayo) headed to AAA next year if not sooner and several more (Haskins, Prieto, Armbruster, Basallo, Willems) knocking on the Top 100 door.

I he does make a move, I think it must be an impact move, not another Cole Irvin type trade.

Thanks for your post and let me clarify. I don't know anything at all. I'm just trying to guess what Elias will do.

I agree that any move he makes will be what he views as an impact move. Where I differ is I think most would say "impact" = TOR established pitcher now. I don't think Elias is hyper focused on this year. I think he's focused on building for years and years to come. Is Seth Johnson or Cade Povich an impact player? Certainly not this year but either may be moving forward. 

That's why I gravitate back to Willy Adames for Feyereisen and Rasmussen. Rasmussen is clearly an impact guy now. 

We see what Elias values with players. He wants guys that control the strike zone. That was a huge emphasis in Houston as well but I can't see Mountcastle here long term with his approach. Or Mateo notwithstanding the recent comment by Elias about him being a core piece. If expiring Trey Mancini nets Seth Johnson, what could Mountcastle fetch? To me, Haskins and Prieto don't fit the mold so I think they'll be dealt. I'd guess some organization believes in DL Hall very highly so while I'm not convinced he'll be dealt, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is. 

Once Cowser has 2 weeks under his belt, I would think he's called up. What makes sense to me is play Santander at 1B or DH and give Cowser plenty of run to see if he settles in. That would cut into Mountcastle at bats. But I don't think it would diminish his trade value prior to the trade deadline. Just my rambling thoughts. 

[Tony-OH]

On 6/1/2023 at 2:14 PM, Sports Guy said:

As I said the other day, I think the team values Ortiz over him and I think you are right here.

The organization places a heavy emphasis on defense on 2B, SS and 3B which is why Ortiz may hold high value. Ortiz is an elite defender wherever you put him on the dirt. Westburg is an adequate defender on the dirt. 

[wildcard]

By the time 2024 is over I would think that strongest infield would be Gunnar, Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz.    I would not trade any of them.   Frazier will be gone and Mateo will be going into his walk year.

Edited June 6, 2023 by wildcard

[Paul in Virginia]

"The ultimate reason why Westburg has not made his major league debut is likely a mixture of service time manipulation and an honest analysis of the player’s skillset. How good does a player have to be for the Orioles to promote him “early?” Unfortunately for Westburg, it seems he wasn’t quite good enough. But his long wait should nearly be over, and his arrival in Baltimore will hopefully be a welcome injection of talent to a lineup that could use a jolt".

 

Why have the Orioles not promoted Jordan Westburg yet? - Camden Chat

 

[owknows]

48 minutes ago, wildcard said:

By the time 2024 is over I would think that strongest infield would be Gunnar, Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz.    I would not trade any of them.   Frazier will be gone and Mateo will be going into his walk year.

I agree.

But I hesitate to say so in public, lest people think we share an opinion and brutalize me for it.

[bluedog]

4 hours ago, 7Mo said:

We see what Elias values with players. He wants guys that control the strike zone. That was a huge emphasis in Houston as well but I can't see Mountcastle here long term with his approach. Or Mateo notwithstanding the recent comment by Elias about him being a core piece. If expiring Trey Mancini nets Seth Johnson, what could Mountcastle fetch? To me, Haskins and Prieto don't fit the mold so I think they'll be dealt. I'd guess some organization believes in DL Hall very highly so while I'm not convinced he'll be dealt, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is. 

Once Cowser has 2 weeks under his belt, I would think he's called up. What makes sense to me is play Santander at 1B or DH and give Cowser plenty of run to see if he settles in. That would cut into Mountcastle at bats. But I don't think it would diminish his trade value prior to the trade deadline. Just my rambling thoughts. 

You and I see this very similarly. I also think Cowser comes up once he clears the service time hurdle in a week or so and moves Santandar to primary DH. That should be both a defensive and offensive upgrade unless Cowser struggles mightily at the plate.

I want Elias to promote Westburg and be played pretty much full time, but I have trouble seeing Elias trading or Hyde benching Frazier. For that reason, I think Westburg will be the centerpiece of a trade at the deadline. I also agree that pitching may be the #1 goal, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Elias make a move for a hitter (1b?) that fits the philosophy more and can hold the fort down until Mayo is ready.

So I won't be surprised if some combination of Haskin, Westburg, Prieto, DL Hall, Norby might be on the move. I wouldn't even be shocked to see Rodriguez dealt (not advocating it, just wouldn't be shocked) in a deal for a true TOR starter.

Edited June 6, 2023 by bluedog

[Brooks The Great]

20 hours ago, bluedog said:

I want Elias to promote Westburg and be played pretty much full time, but I have trouble seeing Elias trading or Hyde benching Frazier. For that reason, I think Westburg will be the centerpiece of a trade at the deadline. I also agree that pitching may be the #1 goal, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Elias make a move for a hitter (1b?) that fits the philosophy more and can hold the fort down until Mayo is ready.

So I won't be surprised if some combination of Haskin, Westburg, Prieto, DL Hall, Norby might be on the move. I wouldn't even be shocked to see Rodriguez dealt (not advocating it, just wouldn't be shocked) in a deal for a true TOR starter.

I don't think Westburg will be traded. He'll be up with the major league team (most likely this month unless he gets hurt) because he'll make the Orioles a better team and he'll help the team get into the playoffs, bottom line.

Trading Westburg just because of a below average, overpaid player like Frazier is too short-sighted and doesn't fit the MO of this front office. Everything they have done with their drafts and major league moves has been with the future in mind, and keeping Westburg, who is a legitmate middle of the order bat with defensive versatility, would be something this front office would and will do.

Trading Westburg because of Frazier would be foolish. It's not going to happen. Will happily admit it if I wind up being proven wrong, but I doubt I'll be wrong on that.

Edited June 7, 2023 by Brooks The Great

[Brooks The Great]

So it's pretty clear to me that Elias is purely gaming Super 2 with Westburg. Westburg should have been on the Opening Day roster, and the O's would have been a better team at this point as a result.

Does anyone have a general idea of the Super 2 deadline this month? I know it's a moving target based on other teams' promotions, but any info would be appreciated.